Mid Major Hoops

CAA Week in Review

Several teams got off to good starts.  Some however, did not.

George Mason - 80-79 win at Vermont, 89-52 win over Brown.   The Patriots showed a lot of resilience in their overtime win over the Catamounts as Darryl Monroe hit two free throws with less than one second remaining.   Monroe had 19 points and 17 rebounds to lead four Patriots in double figures.  Most impressive was the regular season debut of two top GMU freshmen; Ryan Pearson and Andre Cornelius.  Pearson had 13 points and 6 rebounds, while Cornelius had 9 points and 5 assists.  The Patriots won despite 24 points and 8 rebounds from the highly touted forward Marcus Blakely.   The Patriots then won easily over Brown as another freshman, Mike Morrison had 15 points in 12 minutes.  John Vaughan led GMU with 18 points as the Patriots shot 55 percent from the field.  If the Patriots can continue to get solid scoring from their freshmen bench, they will be a force to reckon with.

VCU - 82-59 win over Citadel in the Cancun Challenge.  TJ Gwynn came off the bench to score 20 points to lead four Rams scorers in double figures.  VCU shot 53 percent from the field and went 7 of 16 from three.  The Rams had 12 steals in the game which led to 29 points.  Eric Maynor only had 12 points on 4 of 13 shooting.  But if VCU can continue to find scoring besides Maynor, so much better for the Rams.   Larry Sanders had an off game for VCU with 0 points on 0 of 6 shooting and 1 rebound (though he had 3 blocks) in only 18 minutes.  They need much more production for Sanders for the Rams to succeed.

UNCW - 108-101 OT win over Appalachian State, 107-95 win over Troy.  Meet the Phoenix Suns of the CAA.  The Seahawks overcame a 51-36 halftime deficit to beat the Mountaineers. Johnny Wolf and Chad Tomko each had 27 points as UNCW went 12 of 35 from three.  Despite being outrebounded 53 -33, the Seahawks forced 27 Mountaineer turnovers to win the game.  Then UNCW again came back from a first half deficit to beat the Trojans.  Down 55-47 at half, the Seahawks shot nearly 55 percent from the field as Chad Tomko scored 33 points, while Dominique Lacy had 21 points and 12 rebounds.  Johnny Wolf also had 20 for the Seahawks.  The Seahawks shot 16 of 36 from three.  Its very simple for the Seahawks, wide open, high scoring, shoot the three.  However, the lack of defense will catch up to the Seahawks once they play better teams.  But this is a much better start than anticipated.

ODU - 69-68 win over Charlotte.  A big win for the Monarchs on the road as Jonathan Adams hit a three pointer with 5.5 seconds to win the game for ODU.   Charlotte had been up 67-63 with 15 seconds left until Ben Finney hit a three for the Monarchs to cut it to one.  Then after a missed free throw and turnover by 49er point guard DiJuan Harris, Adams did his heroics.  Finney, Gerald Lee and Darius James each had 14 points.  ODU went 9 of 18 from three and held Charlotte to 4 of 14 from three.   If the Monarchs can continue to get good outside shooting it will only open up Lee’s game.

Hofstra - 98-69 loss to Clemson, 71-68 OT win over Western Michigan, 76-75 win over ETSU.  The Pride had a nightmarish start to their Charleston Classic, getting drubbed by the eventual champions, the impressive Tigers.   The lone bright spot was Charles Jenkins who scored 21 points.  Hofstra then rebounded, literally, against Western Michigan, as they held a 53-45 advantage over the Broncos on the boards as two Pride forwards, Dane Johnson and Arminas Urbutis combined for 28 rebounds.  With Jenkins in foul trouble for most of the game, the Pride found scoring from Tony Dennison (18 points) and Johnson had 14. Jenkins still lead the Pride with 19 points.  The Pride won despite shooting 4 of 27 from the field in the first half.  Jenkins would then add 31 points in the game against ETSU including two free throws with 1 second left as the Pride overcame a late four point deficit scoring the last five points.  Marcus Szabo had 11 rebounds in his debut for the Pride after being suspended the first two games for NCAA infractions.  Cornelius Vines had 16 points while Dennison added 13.

Northeastern - 73-60 win vs IUPUI, 76-56 loss to Michigan, 70-66 win vs. Providence.   Despite the disappointing loss to Michigan, the Huskies look like they are over their road woes.  In the win over the Friars, Matt Janning finally had a signature game with 24 points on 10 of 14 shooting.  Before that, Janning had shot 8 of 25 in the two previous games.  Eugene Spates has been solid, scoring 17 points vs the Friars and led the way with 14 vs IUPUI.   The lone bright spot vs. Michigan was Manny Adako who had 16 points.  The Huskies need to work the ball in more to Adako and Nkem Ojougboh.   They were too content against the Wolverines’ 1-3-1 zone to shoot the three and it cost them dearly.   We’ll know where the Huskies stand in their next game, a home contest vs. 2-0 Holy Cross who has a recent win over St Joseph’s.

Towson - 86-68 win over Navy.  79-62 loss to Niagara.  With Junior Hairston out the first three games due to violating team policy, the Tigers needed to find other scoring options. The Tigers did just that with Josh Thornton scoring a career high 24 points and Jarrell Smith added 18 in the win over the Midshipmen.  However, Thornton and Smith were held to a combined nine points on 4 of 18 shooting in the loss to the Purple Eagles.  Troy Franklin and Brian Morris tried to make up for Thornton and Smith by combining for 34 points.  Without Hairston, rebounding has been a major problem for the Tigers who were outrebounded 101-72 in the two games.  The Tim Crossin Burial Watch continues as Crossin only played 1 minute in the first game against Navy and did not play at all vs. Niagara.   Crossin, who was a member of the CAA all rookie team as a freshman (he averaged 5 assists and nearly a 2 to 1 assists to turnover ratio)  has simply been made non existent since Pat Kennedy has taken over as coach.

Drexel - First game is today at 10:00 am vs. Penn.  Should be interesting.

Georgia State - 77-76 OT loss vs. Bowling Green, 67-63 win over Concordia, 60-52 loss vs. Minnesota.  The Panthers did not get off to the start coach Rod Barnes wanted, losing two of their first three games.  However, it does look like the Panthers are no longer the Leonard Mendez show.  In their loss to BGSU, Joe Dukes had 20 points and Xavier Hansbro had 16 to go along with Mendez’ 15.  In the win over Concordia, others stepped up.  Chris Echols came off the bench with 18 points and Bernard Rimmer added 11 to go with Mendez’ 12 and Dukes’ 11.  However, in the loss to Minnesota, only Dukes and Mendez were in double figures.  A troubling note is the Panthers’ three point shooting.  In the three games of the NABC classic, the Panthers shot an atrocious 11 of 45 (less than 25 percent).  Simply put, Georgia State, work it inside.

Delaware - 85-77 loss at Rutgers.  The good news for the Fighting Blue Hens; Marc Egerson and Alphonso Dawson each had 28 points and Brian Johnson added 11.   The bad news, the other seven players scored 10 points on THREE OF TWENTY FIVE shooting.  That’s 12 percent folks.  Even more troubling for the Blue Hens; they were outrebounded 40-23 by the Scarlet Knights.  As noted in my preview, it looks like the Blue Hens are going to miss Herb Courtney big time up front.  If they don’t get that corrected, its going to be a long season.  Very long.

Update - I didn't know that my key player for Delaware in my preseason rankings for the CAA, freshman forward Kelvin McNeil was out for the season due to a shoulder injury.  The season just got longer for Delaware.

James Madison - 99-64 loss to Davidson.  Sing along...

Here’s the story.. of a man named Brady...who left Poughkeepsie for a big job in Virginia.  He had five returning starters all of whom played no defense...

Yes, the Matt Brady era has started at JMU.  The problem is that he has the same returning five who just don’t get the concept of defense.   The Wildcats shot 58.5 percent from the field, including 40 percent, 10 of 25 from three.  Stephen Curry lit up the Dukes with 31 points (along with 9 assists) on 14 of 19 shooting (that’s above 70 percent).    The only bright note is that freshman forward Julius Wells scored 21 points in 23 minutes off the bench.  Something tells me Juwann James and Kyle Swanston need to pick up their game or one of them is heading to the bench for Wells. 

William and Mary - 65-51 loss to Penn State, 74-55 loss to Ohio.  It was a rough week for the Mary on the road.  First at Penn State, the Mary shot 7 of 28 from three and 38 percent overall as Peter Stein, David Schneider and Danny Sumner combined for 32 of the 51 points. Against Ohio, the numbers were worse from three, 3 of 13 compared to 18 of 36 from two.  Perhaps the Mary needs to work it inside more.  A hopeful note for the Tribe; freshman Quinn McDowell had 11 points off the bench against Ohio.   The bad news, top freshman Kendrix Brown has struggled scoring only two points in the first two games.  The Tribe was hoping for more production from him.  Also David Schneider has struggled mightily shooting 4 of 16 so far for this season.  As Schneider goes, so goes the Tribe.  The 0-2 record speaks for itself.

CAA Preview Part II

Hofstra

Preview
After three straight NIT postseason appearances, the Pride struggled last year going 12-18.  The Pride did however finish barely under .500 in the CAA with a 8-10 record.   The Pride return four of their five starters ( guards Greg Johnson and Charles Jenkins, forwards Dane Johnson and Darren Townes).    However, the one starter they are missing to graduation was two time All CAA First Team guard Antoine Agudio, the leading scorer in the CAA last year.  The Pride will count on All CAA First Team Rookie Charles Jenkins to take over the scoring load.  The Pride will need to find additional scoring help to lighten Jenkins’ load.  The Pride start their season in the Charleston Classic with their first of three opponents being Clemson (a NCAA tournament team last season).   The Pride also has a road game against NIT finalist UMass.

Key Loss
Losing your leading scorer and one of the top 10 scorers in the country, Antoine Agudio, will be
not an easy task.   Agudio’s scoring prowess forced many teams to double team which freed up Charles Jenkins among others for easier scoring opportunities.  Now teams can play the Pride more honestly.

Key Player
Charles Jenkins - Jenkins was outstanding as a freshman, providing 15 points and nearly 5 rebounds a game while playing second fiddle to Agudio.  He is a solid 6 foot 3 220 pound stud who has really worked on an outside jumper all off-season, and it showed during the blue white scrimmage I attended.  However, he is now the opponent’s main focus, and how he fares in that spotlight will determine Hofstra’s success.  If Jenkins is up to the challenge and learns to cut down on the turnovers, it means the Pride again has a significant weapon for other teams to stop.

Outlook
This season offers potential for the Pride.   This is actually a veteran team with six seniors, three who are starters, who play significant minutes.  If the Pride can find balanced scoring from Dane Johnson, Townes, sophomore Nate Lester, and from incoming JUCOs Cornelius Vines, Tony Dennison and Marcus Szabo, along with an elite performance from Jenkins, they may surprise.  The team can actually go eleven, twelve deep and should be competitive on a nightly basis.  The Charleston Classic tournament will be a good test for the Pride.

William and Mary

Preview
The Mary, as my friend Tony Terentieff calls them, were the Cinderella of the CAA last season.  They were in the upper echelon of the conference for most of the year, until a late swoon resulted in a fifth place regular season finish.  But then came the tournament.  A last second three point shot by David Schneider saved the Tribe from a first round loss to Georgia State.  Then the Mary held off Old Dominion in the quarterfinal game.  This led to their famous semifinal upset win over VCU, which sealed the Rams fate to the NIT.  The Tribe however couldn’t pull off the championship win, losing to Mason in the finals.  Gone are guard Nathan Mann and forward Laimus Kiselius but returning are Schneider, forward Danny Sumner, who had an outstanding CAA tournament and center Peter Stein.

Key Loss
Laimis Kisielius could be an enigma at times, but he was the Tribe’s best player.  He played his best game in that semifinal win over VCU.  His ability to take the pass at half court and drive up the court was instrumental in breaking the Rams’ vaunted press.  The Rams must find someone to take over Kiselius’ role as leader.

Key Player
Danny Sumner - Sumner simply shined in the CAA tournament.  The Mary’s third leading scorer at 10.5 points per game averaged 15.5 points in the four games in the tournament.   Sumner will now be counted on to increase his scoring load.  If Sumner can continue his play from the CAA Tournament, the loss of Kiselius will be lessened.

Outlook
Its hard to imagine that the prognosticators dropped the Tribe all the way to eighth in the preseason poll after only losing two of the starters from last year’s team.  Schneider, Sumner and Stein are a solid returning nucleus and if the Tribe get anything from their bench and their top freshmen Kendrix Brown and Quinn McDowell, the Tribe will definitely finish higher.  Finally, they have one of the best Xs and Os coaches in Tony Shaver.  If you ever want to see how to beat a very good press, get your hands on a copy of the tape from last season’s VCU/William and Mary semifinal game.  Its worth the watch.

James Madison

Preview
Madison had been long the doormat of the league the past few seasons.  But early on last season, the Dukes were the darlings of the CAA.  They roared out to a 7-1 record, including a 12 point win over Siena (the Saints would knock off Vandy in the first round of the NCAA tournament).  However after a 2-0 conference start and a 9-3 record, the clock struck midnight on Cinderella.  Madison went 4-14 the rest of the way, including an 18 point drubbing by Northeastern  in the first round of the CAA tournament.   This resulted in the hiring of Marist coach Matt Brady to try to finally turn the Dukes’ fortunes around.  What will help is that all five starters; Abdulai Jalloh, Terrance Carter, Kyle Swanston, Juwann James and Pierre Curtis all return.

Key Loss
With all five starters returning, there is no key loss for the Dukes.

Key Player
Abdulai Jalloh - The St Joe’s transfer led the way in scoring for the Dukes at 15.5 points per game.   The problem is that he also led the way in turnovers, averaging over 4 turnovers a game, a number simply unacceptable.  Jalloh must control the ball better if the Dukes want to improve.

Outlook
You have a team returning all five starters.  You have a team that brought in an outstanding successful mid major coach in Matt Brady (think a Brad Brownell move).  You have a league that has at maybe most one elite team in VCU and a whole lot of other teams with questions.  You have a team that did start last season at 9-3 with the same group of starters.  Yet the Dukes are picked to finish ninth.   So what do I think.   The Dukes have to play a lot better defense to improve.  Yes they can score, but they also commit a lot of turnovers and their defense looks a lot like the San Diego Chargers D from the Air Coryell days (and no that’s not a compliment).  If Brady can reign in the turnovers and get this group to play D, the Dukes will improve.

Towson

Preview
It will be interesting to see what Pat Kennedy’s team does this season.  Third leading scorer Rodney Spruill transferred, point guard CC Williams and forward Jonathan Pease graduated.  Thus three of the five starters are no longer on the team.  Still with the Tigers have leading scorer Josh Thornton and power forward Junior Hairston, the third leading scorer and leading rebounder.   Also returning is guard Tim Crossin and forward Tony Durant. 

Key Loss
CC Williams averaged 4.7 assists a game and had an excellent 2.2 -1 assists to turnover ratio.  His play will be sorely missed.

Key Player
Tim Crossin - Remember when Crossin was a sensational freshman.  He averaged 5 assists a game while averaging 34 minutes a game.  He looked like he was destined for a very good career with the Tigers.  Then Pat Kennedy came aboard and Crossin saw his average minutes cut in half in his sophomore season, then down to 14 minutes as a junior.  He needs to regain the form and minutes to salvage his career.  He may be the Tigers best point guard.

Outlook
Pat Kennedy was looked at as a savior when brought in three years ago.  So far however, his teams have disappointed and perhaps the magic that Kennedy had at Iona has long since been gone. He has to replace three starters and seems to have buried the once promising Crossin on the bench.   He has only one top recruit coming in; freshman point guard Troy Franklin. But there is a question of how effective he will be at the start.  It looks to be a rough start with games at Villanova and NC State and a home game vs. St Joe’s. 

UNC Wilmington

Preview
Three seasons ago, the Seahawks were the regular season and postseason champs of the CAA.  Two seasons ago, TJ Carter was out for the season and the Seahawks followed suit.  Last season, TJ Carter returned and so did the Seahawks.  A 20 win season and a second place finish in the CAA had the Seahawks on the cusp of something special.  But they couldn’t beat Mason three times in one season and lost in the semis to the Patriots.  Now with four of their five starters graduated, the Seahawks look to rebuild.

Key Loss
TJ Carter was truly the Seahawks MVP.  Three seasons ago, he was the Tournament MVP for UNC Wilmington.  Two seasons ago, with him out for the year, a veteran team struggled without him.  Last season, Carter was back and so were the Seahawks.  His presence, along with his scoring ability, made UNC Wilmington a whole lot better.  Now the Seahawks need someone to fill that void.

Key Player
Chad Tomko.  The only returning starter from last year’s team, Tomko will have to provide leadership and improved scoring for the Seahawks to even be just competitive.

Outlook
The outlook looks grim, really grim for the Seahawks this year.  Outside of Tomko, only forward Dominique Lacy and guards Montez Downey and Josh Sheets  really only saw significant time.  The schedule is not kind to UNC Wilmington either.  Road games at Wake Forest, Kent State, Texas A&M and Charleston will be extremely difficult.  The Seahawks will fight it out with Drexel to see who avoids the cellar

Drexel

Preview
Two seasons ago, Drexel was one of the last teams left out of the NCAA tournament despite the best road record in the NCAA.   One season later, the Dragons finished tenth in the conference and then lost their two best players to graduation; forwards Frank Elegar and Randy Oveneke.   For good measure, guard Rob Hampton who was fifth in minutes and sixth in scoring on the team, transferred.   This basically leaves the Dragons the nucleus of Scott Rodgers, Traymayne Hawthorne, and Gerald Colds from which to start from.

Key Loss
Frank Elegar was the Dragons’ Mr Everything.  He led in scoring, 14 points per game.  He led in rebounding, 8 per game and in blocks averaging 2 a game. Elegar leaves a huge hole in the middle for Drexel.

Key Player
Traymayne Hawthorne showed flashes of brilliance at times, averaging 11 points 3 assists and 2 steals per game.  He also had the best assist to turnover ratio for the Dragons.  However, he was very streaky from the field, shooting only 38.6 percent.  For the Dragons to have any chance of being competitive, Hawthorne must improve on his shooting percentage.

Outlook
The news got grimmer for the Dragons when top prospect, freshman shooting guard Chris Fouch went down for the season with a torn ACL.  Coach Bruiser Flint must hope that fellow top incoming freshman Kevin Phillip and Samuel Givens will give him quality minutes.  A bruising non conference schedule with games at Georgetown, St Joe’s and Memphis will offer the young Dragons little comfort.   A potential second straight bottom third finish may jeopardize Flint’s tenure with Drexel.

My Preseason Prognostication

As long as Maynor is still around, VCU is the team to beat.  However, they will now need to find more scoring from Sanders and Rodriguez to offset the inevitable double teams Maynor will see.  The margin for error for the Rams has greatly lessened.   The smart money for contender to the Rams throne seems to be on Northeastern.  But until the Huskies show me that they can win on the road, I remain skeptical.  The team that is flying under the radar and has enough veterans (three starters returning) plus an influx of young talent is George Mason.  A returning Darryl Monroe plus my rookie of the year candidate Ryan Pearson make the Patriots a dangerous team.

As for the next three teams, I think ODU is not a top echelon team with their questionable guard play.  I need to see proof that the Monarchs are a top three team.  Till then I have them at least fourth.  I really like William and Mary to build on their 2007-08 season.  With three starters returning, including an emerging Danny Sumner and the wily David Schneider, the Tribe is much better than an eighth place team.  Georgia State is the seemingly sexy sleeper pick with five D1 transfers joining Leonard Mendez for what seems to be the Panthers rise from the bottom third.  But as I said earlier, its show me time for these supposedly talented transfers.  The early season non-conference schedule will be a true test.

As for the next three teams, Hofstra could be the team with the most to build on.  Its potentially a very deep team if coach Tom Pecora plays them right.  However, the Pride need to find a second and third scoring option and ball movement will be key for them.    Delaware is going to struggle without Herb Courtney and no real influx of talent.  The Blue Hens have Egerson, Dawson and Johnson but not much else.  James Madison has all five starters returning and a new very good coach in Matt Brady.  But I need to see them play defense and handle the ball better, before I move them up my list.

Finally, the bottom third of the conference is weak.  Really really weak.  Towson with Junior Hairston as its only saving grace, will finish tenth.  Simply because Drexel and UNC Wilmington will be so bad.   In fact, I have Drexel finishing ahead of Wilmington simply because they have more starters returning.    Its going to be a long year for these two teams.

Final Order of Finish

1) VCU
2) George Mason
3) Northeastern
4) ODU
5) William and Mary
6) Georgia State
7) Hofstra
8) James Madison
9) Delaware
10) Towson
11) Drexel
12) UNC Wilmington

Just a few final quick notes.  I could easily see the Tribe move up to fourth and Madison finish ahead of Delaware if Brady can get them to play defense and hold onto the ball (in fact I have now Madison eighth and Delaware ninth).  Finally, don’t be surprised if the first place team finishes with five or six losses.  Its going to be that competitive in the CAA this year as the teams are more closely bunched together.  However, this will again be a one bid league this year.   The teams simply aren’t strong enough to get an at large in.

CAA Preview Part I

I happened to go the Hofstra Blue and White scrimmage last night.  Two 12 minute halves.  What I can tell as of this moment is that Hofstra seemed to have a lot more movement in their offense than in the past couple of seasons.   Also, Charles Jenkins has added a really smooth consistent long range jumper to his game.  He nailed several threes last night and his ball handling seemed more in control.  That is a scary combination for Hofstra's opponents.  Hofstra' s three new players, Marcus Szabo, Tony Dennison and Cornelius Vines all showed some potential, with Vines being the best of the three showing long range shooting potential.

Anyway, its time for Part I of my CAA season preview.  Part II will be over the weekend.

For the first time in three years, the CAA was only a one bid conference in the 2007-08 season as George Mason won the CAA Tournament.  Regular season champion VCU lost in the semifinals to William and Mary and was denied an at large bid.

This season the CAA looks to rebound and bring multiple teams to the big dance.  The question is “Will they?”  Below is the CAA preseason predicted order of finish;

1. VCU
2. Northeastern
3. Old Dominion
4. George Mason
5. Delaware
6. Georgia State
7. Hofstra
8. William and Mary
9. James Madison
10. Towson
11. UNC Wilmington
12. Drexel

Lets look at the teams by the CAA’s predicted order of finish, then I will give you my prediction.
As noted, this is Part I of the preview, so we will look at the first six teams in predicted order of finish.

VCU

Preview
VCU went 15-3 in conference last year.  The Rams bring back the CAA’s most valuable player last season in guard Eric Maynor.  Maynor returns with one of CAA’s two best big men in extraordinary shot blocker Larry Sanders (OD’s Gerald Lee is the other best big man in the CAA).  Sanders and sophomore guard Joey Rodriguez will be counted on for additional scoring help now that all CAA guard Jamal Shuler, center Wil Fameni and forward Michael Anderson all graduated.  Look for junior swingman TJ Gwynn and forward Lance Kearse to take increased roles on team.

Key Loss
Guard Jamal Shuler was an all around terrific players for the Rams.  Not only was he their second leading scorer, he was their key defender, known for shutting down the opposition’s best player.  I have seen Shuler’s handy work against Hofstra’s star guard Antoine Agudio and no other guard defended Agudio any better in the four years I saw Agudio play.  Maynor will now be responsible for defending the other team’s best guard.  How Maynor handles that will be a key factor in the Rams play.

Key Player
Larry Sanders’ development as an offensive threat is very important to the Rams.  They must have someone take the load off Maynor.   If Sanders can give them a consistent inside presence, VCU will be even more dangerous.

Outlook
As long as you have the talented coach and recruiter Anthony Grant, along with the league’s best player in Maynor and of course, the vaunted VCU Press, the Rams have to be seen as the favorites in the league.  Early season games vs Rhode Island, Akron and at Oklahoma should give the VCU fans a good opportunity to see where they stand.   However, with the loss of three starters, the Rams margin for error is much less and increased output from Sanders, Rodriguez and Gwynn is desperately needed.   Another issue will be how talented Grant’s incoming class; Terrance Saintil, Bradford Burgess and David Hinton are.   If they can fit in and give minutes off the bench, then the Rams should still win the regular season title.   However, don’t look for another 15-3 season.  These Rams aren't that good.

Northeastern

Preview
Returning all five starters from the sixth place team in the 2007-08 season, the Huskies look to become one of the elite teams in the CAA.  It starts with junior guard Matt Janning who led the Huskies in scoring.  He is joined by fellow guard sophomore Chaisson Allen, junior forwards Manny Adako and senior Eugene Spates and junior center Nkem Ojougboh.   After Janning’s 16 points per game average, the rest of the starters are very balanced in their scoring.

Key Loss
Considering they have all five starters returning, there really isn’t a key loss for the Huskies.

Key Player
As Matt Janning goes, so does the Huskies.  After defeating George Mason in their last regular season game, the Huskies lost their rematch to the Patriots in the CAA quarterfinals.  The main factor was the Patriots holding Janning to a 2 of 13 shooting night from the floor.   For the Huskies to consistently succeed, Janning must consistently succeed.

Outlook
The Huskies biggest problem last year was the road.  The Huskies lost thirteen of their seventeen games on the road including six of nine in conference.  For the Huskies to become a dominant factor in the CAA, they simply must improve on this.  Early season contests at IUPUI, Providence, Indiana, and Memphis, along with a home game vs. Rhode Island should be a really good barometer of how the Huskies will fare this year.  Billy Coen’s now experienced starting five should welcome this challenge.

ODU

Preview
The Monarchs finished fourth in the CAA last year and were promptly knocked out in the quarterfinals by William and Mary.   That was the ODU season in a nutshell.  Good game, bad game.  Good game, bad game.  No consistency.  And that often had to do with the streakiness of their guards. The good news for the Monarchs is that they return the best big man in the CAA, Gerald Lee along with Darius James, Ben Finney and Jonathan Adams.   The bad news is that they lost their two best guards to graduation, Brian Henderson and Brandon Johnson.  Now that their two best guards are gone, Blaine Taylor must find a way to infuse more scoring into his lineup.

Key Loss
Not only was Brandon Johnson their point guard, who was fourth in the CAA in assists, he was also their best defensive guard, a CAA First Team All Defensive Selection.    How well the Monarchs fill the point guard position will be a key indication in their success.

Key Player
Darius James.  The sophomore guard is only one of two guards left from last year’s team.  James will be looked upon for additional scoring and leadership.  He can shoot the three but will need to take more attempts as teams will try to pack it in and double team on Lee and Finney.

Outlook
Blaine Taylor brings in six freshman for this year’s team, the best of which are forwards Nick Wright and Chris Cooper, both from Virginia.  Chances are with Taylor’s coaching style, a lot of them will see significant minutes.  Depth never seems to be an issue with ODU.  And certainly, the Monarchs are solid up from with Lee, Finney, Adams and potentially Wright and Cooper.  However their guard talent and depth is very questionable.   The Monarchs non conference schedule is actually quite weak, with their most difficult games being on the road at Duquesne and Charlotte and a home game with Winthrop.  However, ODU will be hard pressed to finish higher than last year’s fourth place in the CAA if the freshman don't develop.  If they do, then fourth is about right.

George Mason

Preview
The defending CAA champs may have lost two key members of their team to graduation in Wil Thomas and Folarin Campbell, but three starters return from last season’s team; guards John Vaughan and Dre Smith, along with forward Louis Birdsong.  They are joined by forward Darryl Monroe, who redshirted last year due to injury and senior forward/center Chris Fleming who provides solid minutes off the bench.   Throw in sophomore shooting guard Cam Long and two outstanding incoming freshman in Andre Cornelius and Ryan Pearson, and the Patriots are still in the hunt for the CAA title.

Key Loss
Will Thomas - Its really hard to replace an All CAA First Team and All CAA Defensive team player.  Its even more difficult replace a 64 percent shooter who averaged a double double per game.  The Patriots need someone up front to score.  Could it be Birdsong, Monroe, or Pearson?

Key Player
Louis Birdsong - Yes, a more consistent Dre Smith will help, but the loss of Wil Thomas means that Birdsong must step up in scoring and rebounding.  Birdsong shot 54 percent from the field but only averaged 6 points per 23 minutes played a game.  What was more disappointing was that Birdsong only averaged 4 rebounds a game.   Birdsong will get help on the glass from a returning Monroe, but he has to become the man.  Otherwise, he may very well get eclipsed by super frosh Ryan Pearson.

Outlook
Coach Jim Larranaga retooled his team nicely with the additions of Pearson and Cornelius along with three other freshman to makeup the loss of Campbell and Thomas.  This team may struggle at first to find a rhythm.  But outside of a road game against Dayton, the Patriots schedule is easy enough for GMU to win most of its non conference games while finding that rhythm.  Look for Pearson to become CAA rookie of the year and for the Patriots to be better than the prognosticators think.   A consistent Dre Smith, the Dr Jekyll of the CAA, would be a big plus, but don’t exactly count on it.  Many say Georgia State is the sleeper CAA team.  Well, I like Larranaga and company a lot more.  Don’t be surprised if Mason is fighting for the #1 seed at season’s end.

Delaware

Preview
The Fightin Blue Hens started out last season 0-4 en route to a 4-7 start.  Then a funny thing happened.  Delaware started out 5-0 in the CAA and actually were 8-7 overall at one time.  Then reality hit as the Blue Hens went 5-9 the rest of the way (4-9 in the CAA) to finish at .500 and in seventh place in the CAA.   The Blue Hens return the trio of Marc Egerson, Alphonso Dawson and Brian Johnson, who combined for 34 points, 14.5 rebounds and nearly 9.5 assists a game. Its a nice trio to start out with.

Key Loss
Herb Courtney was a tremendous player at Delaware.  The 6-7 forward averaged 14 points and 6. rebounds per game last year.  Courtney ended up as a Third Team All CAA selection.  The loss of Courtney means that Egerson and forward Jim Ledsome are their only dependable players up front.

Key Player
Kelvin McNeil - Its hard to make a freshman the key player for any team’s season.  But the Blue Hens are severely lacking up front and they must hope that McNeil will instantly give them quality minutes.  He is the best of their incoming class and for Delaware to improve on last year’s standing, they need him to grow up quickly.

Outlook
Sixth was too high a prognostication for this team.  The Blue Hens struggled the second half of the year and that was when they had Courtney.  Now the Blue Hens have to fill that void and its asking too much for Ledsome and McNeil to fill that.  Sure Egerson, Dawson and Johnson can improve, but the Blue Hens don’t have much depth on the bench to back their starters.  Early season games vs. Rutgers, Vermont, at Seton Hall and at Marist will tell a lot.   Though the CAA is down, I think the Blue Hens are not as good as last year and will not improve on their .500 record in conference.  But I have been wrong before.

Georgia State

Preview
If there is any team that has got the nod for “CAA Sleeper Team of the Year”, it is the Panthers.  The ballyhooed five transfers that Coach Rod Barnes brought in now get to play.  If you haven’t heard, ESPN in their recent CAA shootaround article detailed the fact that the five D1 transfers who sat out for the Panthers regularly beat the Panthers starting lineup convincingly during practices.  So who are these five transfers.  They are guards Joe Dukes and Dante Curry, forwards Bernard Rimmer, Trey Hampton and Xavier Hansbro.  Throw in Leonard Mendez, the Panthers best player and things are looking up for Georgia State.

Key Loss
Hate to be cold, but when you finish 12th in the conference, its hard to have a key loss.

Key Player
Leonard Mendez - Mendez is an outstanding scorer who is incredibly deadly from three.  However, for want of a better term, he sometimes seems to be out to lunch.  Mendez, who was third Team All CAA last season, needs to elevate his game more if the Panthers want to be in the top half of the CAA.   If Mendez elevates his game and these five transfers are as good as their ESPN billing, then Georgia State has something here.

Outlook
I read the ESPN story and all five players have a solid D1 SEC or Big East pedigree. But I am skeptical that these guys are going to come in and make the Panthers a powerhouse.  There are reasons why all five transferred, and one of the reasons has to do with them being on the end of the bench for the teams they played on.   They may be better at the mid major level, but it doesn’t make them necessarily stars.  A good indicator will be how they play early against their non-conference schedule which features at Minnesota, home to Florida State and at Georgia Tech.  If they play well against those teams, then we have something.  Still, if some want to make Georgia State the sexy sleeper pick, be my guest.  I’ll take Larranaga and the Patriots as mine.  Still, they are better than their predecessors and with Mendez,  they will be a tough opponent on a nightly basis in the CAA.   Just be skeptical about a Top Four CAA finish.

Part II will be in over the weekend. Stay tuned!

Which Was More Balanced CAA 05-06 or CAA 07-08

In March of this year, Kyle Whelliston stated in an ESPN chat that the 2007-08 CAA was more balanced then the 2005-06 CAA.   To get the 2008-09 season started, albeit two months early, I finally have decided to write a column which discusses that. 

In 2005-06, as everyone who follows college basketball knows, George Mason put the CAA on the map by going to the Final Four before losing to eventual champion Florida in the semifinals.  What everyone doesn’t know or remember, the CAA had four teams in the postseason; CAA champion UNC Wilmington, NCAA snub and CAA championship finalist Hofstra who went to the NIT, and the 2004-05 CAA champion, Old Dominion who also went to the NIT.   

In 2007-08, the CAA had three postseason teams; George Mason, who won the CAA championship, VCU, the 2006-07 champ who upset Duke in the first round that year, made the NIT, and Old Dominion who made the inaugural College Basketball Invitational (CBI).

So far, the 2005-06 has a more favorable comparison on the balance scale, with four teams making the postseason as opposed to three for this past season’s teams.   But balance is not determined by the number of postseason teams, its also determined by the strength of teams in the league.

Here’s a look at the regular season overall and conference records of the CAA in 2005-06

UNC Wilmington 25-8, 15-3
George Mason 27-8, 15-3
Hofstra 26-7, 14-4
Old Dominion 24-10, 13-5
Northeastern 19-11, 12-6
VCU 19-10, 11-7
Towson 12-16, 8-10
Drexel 15-16, 8-10
Delaware 8-20, 4-14
William and Mary 8-20, 3-15
Georgia State 7-22, 3-15
James Madison 5-23, 2-16

Compare that with this past season’s CAA

VCU 24-8, 15-3
UNC Wilmington 20-13, 12-6
George Mason 23-11, 12-6
Old Dominion 18-16, 11-7
William and Mary 17-16, 10-8
Northeastern 14-17, 9-9
Delaware 14-17, 9-9
Hofstra 12-18, 8-10
Towson 13-18, 7-11
Drexel 12-20, 5-13
James Madison 13-17, 5-13
Georgia State 9-21, 5-13

At first glance, you could say the 2005-06 was more bottom heavy with four teams with 4-14 records or worse while the worst team in 2007-08 had a 5-13 record (three teams in fact had 5-13 records).  But upon closer look, both seasons had eight teams with 8-10 records or better.  Upon closer review, you had six teams in the 2005-06 season with an 11-7 or better record, which to me is much more balanced.  In fact only four games separated first  (UNC Wilmington) from sixth (VCU) in 2005-06 as opposed to 2007-08 where six games separated first (VCU) from sixth (Northeastern).   You could make a strong argument based on that fact that the 2005-06 season was more balanced, just on those two facts alone.

But there’s more.  A balanced league should show general strength in the postseason.  In the 2005-06 season, the four aforementioned postseason teams combined went an astounding 9-4 (UNC Wilmington 0-1, George Mason 4-1 in the NCAA, Hofstra 2-1, ODU 3-1, both in the NIT).  Only UNC Wilmington lost their first game in a postseason tournament blowing a 20 point lead and losing late to George Washington 88-85.

Compare that with the 2007-08 season postseason teams who went a combined 1-3.  Only ODU won a postseason game, a win over Rider at home in the first round of the CBI (still trying to figure out how ODU got a nod over UNC Wilmington for that tournament). 

So the 2005-06 season is three for three in the balance argument.  Let's use another factor to show how balanced a league is; their record against strong non conference competition.

In 2005-06, the CAA played some very strong non conference competition during the regular season and postseason. George Mason would play the strongest competition. The Patriots started their strong non-conference schedule run of wins by knocking off Manhattan, a NIT participant at Manhattan (Manhattan would knock off Maryland on the road in the first round of the NIT that year). George Mason would defeat fellow Sweet 16 member Wichita State twice, once during Bracket Buster Saturday then in the round of 16 in the NCAA tournament.  Of course, the Patriots along with beating the Shockers knocked off Michigan State, North Carolina and UConn to get to the final four. UNC Wilmington won at Butler by 16 earlier that season (Butler would make the NIT that year and win its first round game at Florida State before losing at Miami of Ohio).  Hofstra beat St Joe’s and Nebraska in the NIT before losing to fellow CAA member ODU in the quarterfinals of the NIT.  ODU won at Colorado, then beat Manhattan and Hofstra before losing to Michigan in the semis of the NIT that season.  VCU also knocked off Albany in their Bracket Buster game that season.  Albany, the America East champs that year, almost knocked off UConn in the first round of the NCAA tournament.

Compare that with this season.  VCU’s best wins were over Maryland (lost in second round of NIT to Syracuse), Akron (lost in NIT second round to UMass) and Houston (lost in semifinals of CBI to Tulsa).  George Mason defeated Cleveland State ( a NIT first round loser to Dayton), beat Dayton ( lost in NIT quarters to eventual NIT champ Ohio State) and knocked off Michael Beasley and Kansas State (made the NCAA’s and lost in second round to Wisconsin).   Besides the win over Rider, ODU’s other sole big non conference win was over another NIT quarterfinalist, Virginia Tech. 

So, despite a few nice wins, especially the win by the Patriots over the Wildcats, the 2007-08 season pales in comparison to the 2005-06 season when it comes to strong non conference wins. 

If that’s not enough evidence for you, finally take a look at the players playing in the CAA the 2005-06 season.  You had FOUR CAA most valuable players playing during that season (2004-05 CAA player of the year ODU’s Alex Loughton, 2006-07 player of the year Loren Stokes, 2007-08 player of the year Eric Maynor, and the 2005-06 CAA player of the year, Jose Juan Barea).  Only Maynor played during the 2007-08 season (the others had since graduated).  Throw in other great players like Isaiah Hunter, Antoine Agudio, Michael George, T.J. Carter, John Goldsberry and Towson’s great scorer Gary Neal, and it was no contest what season had the better balance of players.

The evidence clearly shows that it is obvious that the 2005-06 season was a much more balanced league than the 2007-08 season. For some reason,  I just needed nearly six months to show Kyle Whelliston.

I Know Its Been a While and Hofstra's Jules Goes Prep.

Sorry that's it been so long between posts.  Yes, I know I owe you all a comparison post of the CAA seasons of 2007-08 vs 2005-06.  Coming soon, I promise.

In other stories, wanted to give a public "Get Better" to my friend Tony Bozzella, coach of the Iona Lady Gaels, who is recovering from abdominal surgery.  No truth to the rumor that this was caused by years of being in our Baseball Rotisserie League together. :-)

I also wanted to say welcome aboard to the folks at Big Fly Sports in Hoboken NJ. You'll see them as one of my links. They have a lot of NCAA items I think I'll be getting my Hofstra basketball floormat from you guys shortly.  Looks very cool! :-)

Speaking of Hofstra, for those of you paying attention to offseason CAA transactions, Hofstra's highly touted incoming freshman Yves Jules won't be coming to Hofstra in 2008 as planned.  There had been a question about his SAT scores and I guess we know now they weren't good enough.  He will be attending the prep school  Winchendon in Winchendon Massachusetts.  Though his letter of intent is no longer binding, Jules will still come to Hofstra in 2009 along with guard Chaz Williams.  Hofstra had probably seen this coming,  The Pride signed another JUCO recruit back in early May, Cornelius Vines.  At Iowa Lakes CC Vines averaged about 18 points, 3 assists, 4 rebounds and 2 steals per game.

This gives Hofstra five JUCO players; Vines, seniors Dane Johnson and Darren Townes, and incoming juniors Tony Dennison and Miklos Szabo.  The addition of three JUCO players implies that Pecora has not been happy with his 2005-06 and 2006-07 recruits.  Of those recruiting years, probably the best player by far is sophomore Charles Jenkins who was redshirted a year.  The other players have been disappointments.   

From the 05-06 recruits, senior Arminas Urbutis is for the most part,  a very smart, fundamentally sound player. But he is often injured and at other times is seemingly in coach Tom Pecora's doghouse.  Senior Zygis Sestokas has a very inconsistent shooting stroke, has not once driven to the basket in the three years I have watched him play, and just might be the worst defensive player I have seen at Hofstra.  Mike Davis Sabb at times gives energy and good rebounding and at other times is a foul machine.  Finally, his supposedly best recruit, senior point guard Greg "Playstation" Johnson, who had shown so much potential as a freshman on the 26-7 team from  2005-06, has been a major disappointment with his careless ball handling and inability to shoot from the outside. 

And from his 2006-07 recruits, other than Jenkins, sophomore center Greg Washington, who was redshirted for that season due to NCAA regulations, shows some potential but is very thin and needs to add weight, along with a better shooting touch.  Forward Mantas Leonavicius has barely played in two years and seems to be destined as the 13th man on the team.  The jury is still out on 2007-08 recruit sophomore Nathaniel Lester, who at times played well and at other times was very lost on the court.

Its one thing to bring in a JUCO here or there to round off your team.  But when you have five JUCO players out of 13 scholarship players, its making a statement about your four year recruits.  And that statement is "Maybe they weren't as good as we thought they were".

Bad News for the Rest of the CAA - Grant Signs Extension to Coach at VCU

Perhaps Anthony Grant has found a permanent home.  After speculation that Grant was in line for head coaching positions at South Carolina and LSU, Anthony Grant decided to stay put at VCU.  He was rewarded for that decision with a raise and a contract extension through the 2013-04 season. "Coach Grant has had a significant positive impact on the entire university, not just athletics," VCU president Eugene Trani said Thursday. "We have tremendous confidence in what he will be able to do going forward."

Having witnessed the VCU hometown reaction when Grant stepped on the court for their second round matchup against Towson in the CAA tournament, I can confirm to you that Grant has rock star status in Richmond, home of Virginia Commonwealth.  He got the loudest ovation of anyone including when Eric Maynor was announced in the starting lineup. All Grant has done in two years is lead the Rams to a 52-15 record, two CAA regular season championships, a 2006-07 CAA Conference Tournament championship, a first round upset of Duke in the 2007 NCAA tournament and a NIT berth. 

Grant's decision to stay will most likely result in Eric Maynor's decision to stay at VCU for his senior season.  Maynor, the CAA's Most Valuable Player this past season has had thoughts of declaring for the NBA draft.  Grant does lose three starters to graduation; All CAA First Team guard Jamal Shuler, forward Michael Anderson, and center Wil Fameni.  However, Grant has a good nucleus returning in Maynor, guard Joey Rodriguez and center Larry Sanders, who looks to be on the verge of being the most dominant big man in the CAA.

So it looks like several more years of an athletic VCU team pressing its opponents for 40 minutes.  That's not good news for the rest of the CAA.  But the Rams' fans can breathe a little bit easier this morning.  Their coach seems to like it there in Richmond.

CAA Second Round Action

First, congratulations to Coach Tony Bozzella and the Iona Lady Gaels on their 74-69 win over Fairfield, completing a three game sweep of the Stags during the season.  Anna McClean led the Lady Gaels with 17 points and 9 rebounds and Tiara Headen also had 17 points and 5 rebounds.  The Lady Gaels take on #20 Marist, a 78-67 winner over St Peter’s, the third time in eleven days the Red Foxes defeated the Peahens.  Marist is going for the perfect MAAC season, as they were undefeated in regular season 18-0 and 2-0 during the tournament.

Second, congrats to the Winthrop Eagles who downed UNC Asheville 66-48 to win their fourth consecutive Big South championship.  Michael Jenkins led the way with 33 points for the Eagles as the Eagles outscored UNC Asheville 44-30 in the second half.  Also, congrats to Austin Peay, as the # 1 seeded Governors easily handled Tennessee State 82-64.  Led by Todd Babington’s 24 points, the Governors went out to a 15 point halftime lead and never looked pack

Third, we’ve got some dandy matchups in some mid major conference tournaments.  #1 seed and #21 ranked Drake will take on #2 seed Illinois State as the Bulldogs downed Creighton 75-67 and the Redbirds easily defeated Northern Iowa 56-42.  Adam Emmenecker had 20 points and 11 assists for the Bulldogs in their win.  Osiris Eldridge had 13 points and 8 rebounds for the Redbirds in their win.  The Redbirds are now 24-8 on the season and have improved their chances for an at large bid.  But Illinois State would rather have the win today and have the automatic berth.  Should be a great game.

Also, the MAAC is looking to have a very competitive semi final round as top seeds Siena, Rider, and Loyola Maryland all won.  Only the #3 seeded Purple Eagles of Niagara lost, to #6 seeded Marist.  Niagara was the defending MAAC champion.  Senior Charron Fisher (my nickname for him is Charles Barkley Jr), one of the top scorers in the country, had 23 points and 16 rebounds in his final game for the Purple Eagles.

So now onto the CAA tournament, where the top seeds all held serve, sans one, #4 Old Dominion, who lost to #5 William and Mary on another late game three, this time the Tribe hero was Nathan Mann.   First, the arena was still cold yesterday.  In fact, the Richmond Times commented that the only thing colder than the arena was Hofstra’s first half shooting in their loss on Friday (OUCH!).  Second, I had never seen a larger second round day session crowd as I did yesterday.

In the Tribe-Monarchs game, it looked like early on ODU was going to blow the Mary out of the building as they went on a 9-2 run to begin the game as Brian Henderson and Gerald Lee scored all the points for the Monarchs.  But the Tribe answered with their own 20-4 run as Laimius Kiselius had 8 points for the Tribe during that stretch, to put the Mary up 22-13 with 3:14 left.  But then the Monarchs answered with a 10-0 run to actually go up one, before the Tribe’s Nathan Mann hit two free throws to put the Mary back up 24-23 at halftime. 

After shooting a cold 29 percent in the first half, The Tribe would go out and shoot 70% in the second half, which resulted in the Tribe extending their lead to 50-42 with 8:05 left.  But the Monarchs chipped away at the led, going back to their bread and butter, Gerald Lee, who had 20 points in the game.  The Monarchs would actually take the lead, 58-57 with 1:48 left on a Lee layup.  However, the Tribe’s David Schneider nailed his ninth three pointer of the tournament to put the Mary back up 60-58.  Brandon Johnson then tied the game at 60 with a layup with 37 seconds left.  Mann then hit his three pointer with 7.5 seconds left as in rattled in and out, then kissed the glass and went back in and the place went nuts.  It was an exciting game throughout and the crowd thoroughly enjoyed it.

The Tribe now face the #1 seed, VCU.  The VCU fans, who made up at least 50 percent of the day session crowd yesterday, were treated to another episode of the Larry Sanders Show.  The freshman All CAA defensive first team forward had 14 points, 15 rebounds and 4 blocks to lead the way for the Rams in their 57-46 win.  The Rams who struggled mightily shooting the entire game (VCU shot 36.7 percent from the field), used an extremely tough second half press to pull away for the victory.   

In the first half, the Tigers raced out to an 8-0 lead as Tony Durant (12 points) and Josh Thornton (13 points) did all the damage.  The lead for Towson was 17-10 after a three by Thornton with 12:51 left in the first half. Then after a layup by Sanders made it 17-14 with 11:53 left, both teams would not score for the nearly next  SEVEN MINUTES until Durant hit a jumper with 4:56 left to put the Tigers up five.  VCU would go on a 11-3 run to end the first half as Eric Maynor hit the go ahead three with 13 seconds left to put the Rams up 25-22 at the half. 

That was the ball game right there as the Rams went on a 9-0 run to start the second half, with VCU leading 34-22 with 15:18 left.  The Tigers would get the lead as close as four, 38-34 on a Durant field goal (his first points of the second half) with 6:32 left.  But the Tigers, who shot 29.8 percent for the game, including 25 percent in the second half, would get no closer.

Sorry for the next quick paragraph, but I have to check out of my hotel. In the night session, neither game was really close.  #2 seed UNCW used a 25-7 first half run, went out to an early big lead and rolled to an 82-59 win over Delaware.   The Seahawks shot 56.7 percent from the field for the game. Daniel Fountain led five double digit Seahawk scorers with 18 points.  Chad Tomko had 17 points, Vladimir Kuljanin had 14 points shooting 7 of 8 from the field, Dominique Lacy had a career high 12 points and Todd Hendley had 10 points. What was most impressive was the Seahawks did this with first team All CAA TJ Carter on the bench for most of the game due to foul trouble. Carter only played 19 minutes in the game.  Herb Courtney led the Blue Hens with 19 points, most of which came in the first half.

In the final game of the day, #3 seed George Mason played with an incredible defensive intensity, smothering Matt Janning and the Northeastern Huskies, as the Patriots won 63-52.  GMU held Janning to 10 points on 2 of 13 shooting from the field.  Folarin Campbell led George Mason with 20 points including 10 of 13 from the foul line.  But it was the “Feed the Beast” philosophy of getting the ball into First Team All CAA Will Thomas, that spurred the Patriots to the victory.  Thomas scored five points early on his way to scoring 18 points for the game and it forced the Huskies to collapse on Thomas which freed up Campbell among others.  The Patriots shot 54.8 percent from the field. Also, the Patriots dominated on the boards, outreboundng the Huskies 28-15 as Thomas had 8 of the 28 Patriot rebounds.  The Huskies, who shot 35 percent from the field were led by Chaisson Allen and Eugene Spates who each had 11 points.  George Mason now faces UNCW, who won both games from the Patriots at beginning of the season.

Review of CAA First Round Action

I was at the first round of the CAA tournament, here in Richmond Virginia and some things have changed in a year.  New public address announcer (liked the old one much better - have to check who that was), a very large crowd for the first round evening session (largest crowd I have ever seen for a CAA first round evening session) and no more "Jammin at the James" promotions, which I miss too.  However, the more things change, the more things stay the same.  First, the Richmond Coliseum is cold. Always cold.  But more importantly, in this case, it was the four first round games played yesterday at the Richmond Coliseum were for the four teams that lost; Hofstra, Georgia State, Drexel and James Madison, a microcosm of their seasons as a whole.  Now I am not taking anything away from Towson, William and Mary, Delaware and Northeastern, all who played well and deserved to win.  But it was interesting to see how the four teams that lost really played that way the entire season.

First, I have seen most of Hofstra's games this season live or on television.  And if anything stands out, from watching in the stands or looking at the statistics, it's how careless Hofstra is with the ball. They are last in the CAA in assists, last in assist/turnover ratio and last in turnover margin. Another problem is despite being fifth in field goal percentage in the CAA at 43.6 percent, they are only ninth in three point field goal percentage at 33 percent.  The kicker is that they have the fewest three point field goal attempts in the CAA with 444, as they have no one else who can shoot the three besides Agudio, who shoots 41 percent from three with 205 three point attempts (nearly half of Hofstra's 444).  That means the rest of the Hofstra team as a whole shoots 26.8 percent from three point arc.  Which really means, if Agudio is either double teamed (which is frequently the case) or is off on his shooting, and the Pride can't kick it inside, they are in serious trouble. 

I was at the game they played host to Stony Brook where they were down 33-17 at halftime.  In that game, in the first half the Pride shot 5 of 25 from the field.  I didn't think they could shoot any worse this season.  Well, I was wrong.  In the first half of yesterday's game against Towson, Hofstra shot 4 of 29 from the field, for a 13 percent shooting performance  FOUR field goals.  Hofstra started off strong working the ball inside with Dane Johnson scoring Hofstra's first 6 points in the first 2 minutes and 13 seconds. Johnson did not have another field goal attempt until 4:14 left in the first half.  Now here is the kicker, Towson was only up 15-10 with 5:35 left in the first half before going on a 16-3 run to lead at the half 31-13.   Agudio only had 2 points in the first half.

But this is typical for Hofstra to struggle shooting in the first half, often by taking bad shots and not working the ball inside, to turn the ball over often by dribbling into traffic too much, or not handling pressure and making errant passes.  All of this is shown by the aforementioned statistics. 

But as Hofstra often does, they do make halftime adjustments on offense, Agudio goes on a second half scoring spree, and they come out in the second half and make a comeback.  The second half of yesterday's game was no exception.  They worked the ball inside and came out with a 7-2 run.  Then Pat Kennedy called a great timeout with Towson up 33-20.  The timeout resulted in Towson increasing the lead to 19, 41-22 with Josh Thornton (22 points), Tony Durant (20 points) and CC Williams (14 points) leading the way.  The Pride though came back on a 11-0 run led by a rampaging Agudio, who had 25 points in the second half to cut it to 41-33 with 12:17 left.   Hofstra would continue cutting into the Tiger lead, whittling into three, 51-48 with 8:08 left.  After a Josh Thornton three put the Tigers up six, the Pride would only get as close as five again, 55-50 on two Agudio free throws, before Towson put it away with a 13-2 run for an 81-66 victory.  The Tigers put it away on the free throw line going 22 of 27 in the second half (they had no free throw attempts in the first half).  The key stat for Towson was the Tigers had 14 steals as the Pride had 19 turnovers (as opposed to only 14 assists).  Towson now gets VCU in the second round.

As for the second game, Georgia State showed why they have lost so many close games this season. For over thirty five minutes, the Panthers led the game, by as many as nine, 21-12 with Leonard Mendez and Justin Billingsley doing most of the damage.  The Tribe never gave up to though, thanks to their ball movement on offense and a truly heroic performance by David Schneider (more on that in a minute).  The Panthers had a six point lead, 54-48 with 1:25 left.  But Schneider hit a three to cut the lead to one, 54-53 as Georgia State wasted two possessions with a chance to maintain the lead.  After Trae Goldston hit two free throws, Schneider again cut the lead to one 56-55 before Mendez was fouled with 7.9 seconds left.  Mendez hit only one of two free throws to put the Panthers up two.  Then Schneider dribbled down the court and hit the pull up three with 1.5 second left to win the game for the Tribe 58-57.  Schneider led the Tribe with 20 points on 7 of 12 shooting, including six three pointers. Danny Sumner had 17 points for the Tribe, while Mendez had 14 points and Deven Dickerson had 10 points for the Panthers.  The Panthers shot 46.7 percent in the first half but only 34.8 percent in the second half as the Tribe shot 50 percent from the field in the second half.  The Panthers had a 37-27 lead on turnovers but the Tribe went to the line 29 times as opposed to the Panthers 9 times (Georgia State shot 8 of 9, William and Mary 16 of 29).

In the third game, the #11 seed, Drexel showed why they were 5-13 in conference.  All year long, the Dragons were Frank Elegar and not much else, as the Drexel guards absolutely struggled from the outside (last in the CAA in three point shooting percentage and second to last in field goal percentage) and from the free throw line (last in the CAA at 62.9 percent).  Last night, Elegar was the only Dragon in double figures, scoring 15 points in a 60-51 loss to #7 seed Delaware.  The difference may have been at the line as Drexel shot 11 of 22 as opposed to Delaware's 13 of 16.  Marc Egerson, who led the Blue Hens with 15 points, hit 6 of 7 free throws in the last 4:43.   The Dragons did cut a ten point lead down to three, 54-51 with 1:30 left.  Drexel had a chance to cut the lead further, but Jim Ledsome blocked Frank Elegar's hook shot attempt with 30 seconds left and the Blue Hens put the game away.  Delaware had three other scorers in double digits with Herb Courtney adding 15 points, Alphonso Dawson with 13 points and Ledsome with 10.  Delaware plays #2 seed UNC Wilmington today.

In the last game, #6 Northeastern exploited the usual weak defense of #11 James Madison, shotting 52 percent from the field including 8 of 17 from three and rolled to a 73-55 win.  The Huskies pulled out to a 13 point halftime lead as they used a 17-5 in the last six minutes of the first half.  The Dukes came back in the second half as cut the lead to 49-46 left but the Dukes ran out of gas and the Huskies went on to the 18 point win.   Matt Janning led five Huskies in double figures with 13 points.  Manny Adako had 12 points, Chaisson Allen 11, Eugene Spates and Baptiste Bataille had 11 for the Huskies.  Terrance Carter had 15 points to lead the Dukes in Dean Keener's last game as Dukes' head coach.  Keener resigned last week as coach effective at the end of the season, which is now.  The Dukes came into the game last in the CAA in field goal percentage defense (48.2 percent) and three point field goal percentage defense (36.9 percent).  The Huskies now play #3 seed George Mason.

CAA Tournament Preview and Predictions

I am heading down to Richmond tomorrow morning starting around 4:00 am.  Another year, another road trip.  This is my sixth season going down for the “Jammin at the James” and I wouldn’t have it any other way.  Nothing like having breakfast at Aunt Sarah’s Pancake House before the day session starts. Nothing like hearing the JMU band play (for one round only since the Dukes always lose).  Nothing like the UNC Wilmington fans, the nicest fans in the CAA.  Nothing like the VCU dance team..well, if you have seen the VCU dance team, you know why. Sorry, couldn’t resist.

For those of you not going to Richmond, you can catch the first round action on CAASports.com.  Mike Glitos has noted on his site, Life as a Mid Major, that there are only 1000 tickets left for the semifinal round and less than that for the finals.  The Richmond Memorial Coliseum should be hopping this weekend  Nice! 

So here are my predictions for the whole entire tournament.

First Round

Game 1 - #9 Towson vs. #8 Hofstra - There is a question to whether Junior Hairston plays for Towson (7-11 CAA).  I don’t think it matters.  The Pride match up well size wise vs the Tigers. Hofstra (8-10) has played well down the stretch and looked very impressive in their win vs. the Tigers at the Mack Arena.  Tigers only hope is that Hofstra turns the ball over as much as they did in the first game (22 turnovers), a 60-51 win by the Tigers at home.  However,  first Team All CAA Antoine Agudio and Rookie of the Year in the CAA Charles Jenkins make a formidable tandem and will be too much for the Tigers, who are 1-13 on the road or at neutral sites.  Make it 1-14 after tomorrow.

Game 2 - # 12 Georgia State vs. #5 William and Mary - If there is going to be an upset in the first round, this is it.  This is a rematch of the first round game from last year’s tournament, won on a three point miracle buzzer beater by Leonard Mendez.  The Tribe limped to the finish, losing 6 out of their last 7 games to go from a second place 9-2 record  to a 10-8 fifth place record.  Georgia State, though 5-13 in conference  has actually won 3 out of its last 5 games and always seems to do well in the first round of the CAA tournament, winning both times in the first round matchups since joining the conference in 2005-06.   The Panthers will find a way to send the Tribe home early again this season.

Game 3 - # 7 Delaware vs. #10 Drexel - Only the Tribe and the Dukes had a worse collapse in conference than the Blue Hens.  Delaware started 5-0 in conference then preceded to lose 9 of their last 14 games in conference.  Still a .500 record is respectable considering where the Blue Hens were last year.  Herb Courtney finally got some help from Marc Egerson and Brian Johnson.  Meanwhile, what a year a difference makes.  The Dragons, last year were the road warriors, leading the NCAA in road wins.  This year they were 3-10 on the road. Worse yet is their outside shooting.  They could have the worse collection of outside shooters ever.  Frank Elegar can’t save the Dragons here as Delaware moves on to the next round.

Game 4 - #6 Northeastern vs. #11 James Madison - Talk about a collapse.  The Dukes started the year 10-3 and 3-0 in the CAA.  JMU then preceded to lose 13 of the next 15 games in conference.  No wonder Dean Keener resigned as coach.   There is a lot of offensive talent on the Dukes with Abdual Jalloh and Kyle Swanston.  Unfortunately there is not a lot of defensive talent on the Dukes.  Northeastern is one of those young talented teams that either looks really good or really bad.  Matt Janning, averaging 16 points per game, looks to be a budding star and they have some nice size up front.   Better defense always win, and the Huskies end the Dukes season on a fitting note.  Seems that I won’t see the best pep band in the CAA, the JMU band more than once again.

Second Round

VCU (15-3 CAA) doesn’t exactly have an easy bracket for being a #1 seed.  Hofstra is a pretty good #8 seed, especially with the Agudio/Jenkins tandem.  And though I know Hofstra has a propensity to turn the ball over, the Rams are not as good as last year’s team, despite their record.  The Rams don’t have the inside play due to Wil Fameni’s injury and Michael Anderson’s inconsistency.  Larry Sanders though is a blocking machine.  It will be interesting to see Sanders and Hofstra’s block shot master Dane Johnson go at it.  If I were the cheerleaders for both sides, I would wear protective gear when these two are on the court because the balls will be swatted everywhere.  Fortunately, the Rams have a loud hometown crowd, and the dynamic duo of CAA Player of the Year Eric Maynor and fellow First Team All CAA Jamal Shuler (by the way, justly deserved). Anthony Grant's press philosophy fits this athletic VCU team so well. They will overcome the Pride in a much closer game than people think.

#4 Old Dominion (11-7 CAA) is my sleeper team here.  The Monarchs are known for their depth, and once again with nine players averaging 10 minutes or more, ODU is the perfect team to play three games in three days.  The key is getting the ball to their best player, Gerald Lee.  When the Monarchs are playing well, the guards three point shooting is kept to a minimum and Lee is getting a lot of touches.  When the Monarchs don’t play well its because Brandon Johnson and Brian Henderson are chucking up threes to the tune of 6 of 25 shooting (see their loss to UNCW).  However I can’t see the Panthers pulling off two upsets in a row, even if the Monarchs guards do some serious bricklaying.  The Monarchs will be too much for the Panthers.

#3 UNCW (12-6 CAA) has the most balanced scoring of any team in the league. With First Team All CAA, T.J. Carter, Daniel Fountain (don’t worry Mr. Glitos, Fountain will pull another Stokes and be ready for this game), Todd Hendley and Vladimir Kuljanin, this team can score with anyone.  They looked so solid in both their wins over George Mason.  Unfortunately at times this team seems to fall asleep at the wheel and give up a ton of points (see their 84-73 loss at home to Vermont on Bracket Buster weekend).  Delaware has the capability to hang with UNCW with Egerson and Courtney.  However, the Seahawk balance will pull them away to a comfortable win.

If there is going to be a second round upset, here’s the one.  The enigma that is #3 George Mason (12-6 CAA) takes on Northeastern. These two played last weekend in the final regular season game for each and the Huskies won 70-57.  It’s a very simple formula to beat George Mason; Deny First Team All CAA and inside beast Will Thomas the ball and let the guards on Mason shoot.  Against the Huskies, Thomas had 15 points but only on 5 of 7 shooting from the field (though he was 5 of 8 from the line).  Attention GMU guards, I have three words of advice for you. FEED THE BEAST (with all apologies to Thomas).  Folarin Campbell makes a great second scoring option for the Patriots, but its Thomas that makes them go.  Work it inside then if not open, let him kick it out for the open jumper. He should average 12-14 attempts per game.

The Huskies match up well with GMU with Manny Adako, Eugene Spates and Nkem Ojougboh. I like the Huskies to knock off the Patriots and advance to the semis. 

Semifinal Round

If there is any team that matches up really well with VCU, its ODU.  They have the depth and the solid frontcourt to give the Rams fits and solid guards to handle their pressure.  It comes down to the Monarchs guards, Johnson and Henderson shooting well from the floor.  Against VCU at the Alltel Center, Johnson and Henderson combined to shoot 12 of 17 from the field.  They will need to do that again to beat the Rams.  My guess is that they won’t this time and the Rams will hold on to win..barely.  But I wouldn't be surprised if the Monarchs pull the upset.  Blaine Taylor is one of the more underrated coaches in the game.

UNCW gets a Huskies team that’s playing their third game in three days and the wear will show here.  The Seahawks are too balanced and Kuljanin and Hendley will be too much a load for Adako, Ojougboh, and friends.  UNCW moves onto the final.

Final

You would think UNCW would matchup well against VCU considering their three guards Chad Tomko, T.J. Carter and Daniel Fountain are so good.  Well the Rams have handed the Seahawks their lunch in their two matchups this season, winning both games by 15 and 14 points respectively.  The Seahawks trio of Carter, Tomko and Fountain have shot 11 of 32 and 9 of 30 in those respective games.  Just goes to show how good Maynor and Shuler are defensively. 

The Rams will win, but the CAA for the first time in three years will be a one bid league. 

Northeastern Continues to Roll

Some teams learn to make adjustments, some teams do not.  Such was the case last night at the David Mack Arena as Northeastern (14-12, 7-6 CAA) jumped out to an early lead, never trailed and downed Hofstra (8-16, 5-9 CAA) 62-53.   On January 26, Northeastern lost at home to Hofstra 70-65.  In that game, the Huskies played a zone defense for the entire game, which allowed Pride leading scorer, Antoine Agudio to burn them for 32 points on 11 of 17 shooting from the field, including hitting 5 of 8 three point attempts.  In fact, in that game, Hofstra shot 9 of 19 from beyond the arc.

Last night, the Huskies doubled Agudio all night, resulting in a 5 of 16 shooting performance from the field, which included him missing all seven three point attempts.  Agudio was held to 13 points, nine under his season average. 

As was the case in several other games this season, last night Agudio had difficulty in finding an open man when double teamed, and Hofstra could not capitalize on those scoring opportunities.  This can be shown in the statistic that hurts Hofstra the most; turnover to assist margin, which the Pride are last in the CAA in.   Hofstra only had 10 turnovers last night, but only had 7 assists. Compare that to Northeastern.  Despite Hofstra doing a very good job in guarding Matt Janning in the second half (Janning scored 19 points but only on 6 of 17 shooting from the field including 3 of 9 from three), Northeastern had 14 assists to 7 turnovers on the game.   

Hofstra was at its best last night when they let either let Charles Jenkins have the ball at the top of the key or worked the ball inside. When given the opportunity, Jenkins, who led Hofstra in scoring with 14 points, would be able to drive inside and score.   Also Hofstra had a large margin in the paint, outscoring Northeastern 34-14.  However, at the end of the game, as is usually the case, the ball was in Agudio’s hands and Northeastern smothered him at every opportunity.

Hofstra had its chances though.  The Pride had cut the margin to a single point three times, the latest at 46-45 with 9:05 left.  Northeastern’s lead was 52-49 with 3:50 left.   Hofstra would have four opportunities to cut that lead over the next two minutes as Northeastern was held scoreless. But the Pride could not capitalize.  The highlight of this failure was with 2:42 left, as Hofstra’s other Achilles heel on the season, free throw shooting, again reared its ugly head.  Agudio, Hofstra’s second leading foul shooter at 76 percent, missed the front end of an one and one free throw attempt and the Pride would never get any closer.   Northeastern shot 79 percent from the free throw line (19 of 24) while Hofstra shot 68 percent from the line (11 of 16) its season average.       

Since losing that game to the Pride, Northeastern has won four straight to move into a tie for fifth place in the conference with a 8-6 record along with Delaware (Old Dominion can tie with a win over Drexel tonight).  More importantly, the Huskies are only one game out of fourth after William and Mary lost at UNC Wilmington last night.  The top four teams in the CAA get a first round bye.  As for Hofstra, they now are in a tie for eighth with Towson at 5-9.  Three games separate eighth from seventh with four to play.  It seems destined for Hofstra at best to play the eight-nine game at the CAA tournament in Richmond next month.  The winner of that game most likely gets rewarded with a date against defending CAA champ VCU in their hometown.  Not exactly what the Pride want.