Mid Major Hoops

Bracket Buster Prediction - Missouri State at UW Milwaukee

Missouri State (RPI 25) vs. Wisconsin Milwaukee (RPI 41)

Wisconsin Milwaukee 11-4 in Horizon League, 18-7 overall.  The Panthers have a  7-3 non conference schedule with wins over St Louis, Hawaii, Montana and Wyoming.  Lost at Memphis and Wisconsin.  Split with Butler (86 RPI).  One home loss to Illnois Chicago.  The Panthers are a senior laden team. Joah Tucker and Boo Davis each average 16 a game, Adrian Tigert averages 12.7 points per game, and Chris Hill averages 7.9 points per game.  All four leading scorers are seniors.  Wisconsin Milwaukee leads the Horizon league in scoring with 73.8 points a game and is tied with Butler in scoring margin at +8.3 points.  On defense, UW Milwaukee also leads the Horizon in rebounding averaging 38.3 rebounds a game and in offensive rebounds a game.  The Panthers hold opponents to 32 percent from the three point line, good for fourth in the conference. 

Missouri State 10-6 in Missouri Valley Conference, 17-7 overall.  The Bears have a 7-1 non conference.   Only major non conference team they faced, they lost to Arkansas.  Panthers are 3-6 vs the best teams in the conference (wins over Southern Illnois, at Northern Iowa and home to Bradley, lost to Wichita State twice, lost at Creighton, lost at Bradley, lost to Northern Iowa)
Their conference road record is 4-4.    Missouri State is led by Junior Blake Ahearn who averages 17.6 points a game and an amazing 94.8 percent from the foul line.  Ahearn is one of seven Missouri state players who average 7.8 points per game or more.   Of those seven, only Kellen Easley is a senior.  Missouri State is an offensive juggernaut.  They lead the Horizon in scoring averaging 77.6 points per game, first in FG percentage with 47%, first in free throw percentage with 75.1% and second in scoring margin with +10.   The Bears average 37.4 rebounds a game.

Prediction - Since both teams lead their conferences in scoring, expect a high scoring game. 
The veteran Wisconsin Milwaukee team uses their big game experience and holds serve at home, barely.  Wisconsin Milwaukee wins 81-76.

Quick Predictions on Tonite's Bracket Buster Games

Tonight, the first game features Albany, the first place team in the America East at. the fifth place CAA Virginia Commonwealth Rams. 

Albany is 11-2 in America East, 16-8 overall with a RPI of 134.  The Great Danes have won six in a row, however they have no significant wins outside of conference with losses at Florida and UCLA.  Their non conference record on the road is 1-5.  The Great Danes are led by Jamar Wilson who averages 17.6 points per game and Brent Wilson who averages 10 points a game. The Great Danes also have five other players who average between 5.4 points and 8 points a game.  Of their seven top scorers, only two are seniors (both wilsons will return next year).

VCU is 10-6 in the CAA and also 16-8 overall with a RPI of 65.  Their non conference record is 6-2 with a signature win over Houston (RPI 59) on the road.   They are also 10-1 at home with their only loss being to current CAA conference leader George Mason (RPI 27).  They are lead by senior forward Nick George who averages 16.7 points a game and junior guard B.A. Walker who averages 12 points a game. 

Prediction - Northeastern  (RPI 103), who finished second in the America East last year, is currently tied for fifth in the CAA with VCU.  Northeastern is a better team than Albany.   Throw in Albany's struggles on the road in non conference games, plus that the Siegel Center is a loud place to play (ask ODU who played in front of a sold out crowd of 7,858), does not bode well for the Great Danes.  Their only hope is that VCU has another off shooting night like they did against Towson.  But VCU shoots much better at home than on the road.  VCU wins this game 79-65.

The second game pits Akron (68 RPI), 12-2 in the East division of the MAC(good for first place in the MAC East), 18-5 overall vs. Nevada (31 RPI), 9-3 in the WAC and 19-5 overall.

Akron is 6-3 non conference with its best win, an eleven point win at home vs Mississippi State (RPI 113).  They have lost to Louisville, Clemson and California on the road.  They are 5-2 on the road in conference but lost to Ohio and Kent State on the road, the other two significant teams in the MAC.  The Zips four leading scorers, Romeo Travis, Nick Dials, Dru Joyce and Bubba Walther are all underclassmen (two juniors and two sophomores). 

Nevada is 10-2 vs non conference opponents with impressive wins at #22 Kansas, Vermont, and UNLV (they lost at #15 UCLA by 11) and at home over Georgia.  The Wolfpack are led by junior Nick Fazekas who averages 21 points and 9.7 rebounds a game.  He gets help from Marcelus Kemp and Mo Charlo who combine for nearly 25 points a game.

Prediction - Nevada is a very solid, experienced team that has a future NBA first round pick in Fazekas (Fazekas has even said that this is his last year at Nevada and that he will apply for the NBA draft).   Fazekas has played well on a national stage, scoring 35 at Kansas and 24 at UCLA.  Look for Fazekas to have another good night.  Akron is a good young team, but young teams struggle on hostile road courts and Akron's road record has proven that.  Nevada wins 81-68. 

Bracket Buster Predictions - Part I - A Revisit

Back at the end of January, I made a prediction on Bucknell - Northern Iowa.  Here's what I wrote below;
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(From 1/31/06)

Bucknell (16-3) vs. #25 Northern Iowa (19-3)- The best game of Bracket Buster weekend. 

The mighty Bucknell Bison, slayer of Kansas last year in the tournament, have a Sportsline RPI of 32.  They stampeded the Orange at Syracuse (SRPI #36), then knocked off DePaul at DePaul (SRPI #73)and also have a win vs. St Joe's (SRPI #46).  Two of their three losses came against the #2 and #4 teams in the country (Duke and Villanova). Their only blemish is a loss at Santa Clara.

#25 Northern Iowa Panthers have a similar pedigree.  The Panthers (Sportsline RPI # 14 and SOS 55) defeated Iowa (SRPI #7), downed LSU (SRPI #19) at LSU, and have wins against fellow conference powers, Wichita State (SRPI # 22) on the road, Missouri State (SRPI #44) on the road and Southern Illnois (SRPI # 20) at home.  Their only losses came at Iowa State (SRPI #58), at Bradley (SPRI #57) and home to Creighton (SRPI #26). 

Despite Bucknell's impressive pedigree, right now their strength of schedule -132, may not be high enough to get them an at large bid. However a win at Northern Iowa, especially if still ranked, will make the selection committee look twice if Bucknell does not win the Patriot League outright (unlikely as that is).  Northern Iowa has much more of a case for an at large bid with their SOS at 55 and their marquee wins over Iowa and LSU.  Also a 9-2 road record against a difficult schedule rates high with the selection committee.  What also will look good in their favor is that they did a significant part of this without one of their best players.  Eric Crawford (10.5 ppg, 56% FG) has been out due to injury, but is supposed to be back in late February.  However, its unclear if he will be ready for the Bucknell game.  A win against Bucknell only solidifies the Panthers' chances.  A loss would be a blemish, but not something they couldn't overcome.   

Who needs this game more?  - Bucknell.  With Syracuse struggling and St Joe's unlikely a tournament team (unless they win the A10 tournament),Bucknell may not have beaten a team that will make the NCAA tournament.   They need this win to strengthen their at large case. Northern Iowa already has the legit wins, the SOS and the impressive road record necessary to receive an at large bid.

Prediction - If Crawford comes back in time, its a Panthers win for sure.  However, if Crawford does not play, this will be a very close game.  Chris McNaughton is the Bison's leading scorer and the 6-11 senior has 5 inches on Eric Coleman, the Panthers center.  Look for the Panthers to double team McNaughton, perhaps with Grant Stout, the Panthers leading rebounder helping out, and force Bucknell to rely more on guards Kevin Bettencourt and Charles Lee.  Crawford would be a huge help because at 6-4, he would be a difficult challenge for the smaller Bison guards.  On offense, if Crawford's not available, Northern Iowa will continue to rely on the triumverate of Ben Jacobson, Stout and Coleman.  Expect Northern Iowa to have a significant advantage on the boards.

Bucknell ideally wants to keep the game in the 60's.  If it becomes a more fast pace game, then it favors the Panthers.   I don't think Crawford will be back in time, but I think due to the rebounding advantage, the Panthers will get a lot of second chance points.  In a slugfest, the Panthers win at home 69-63.
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Since then, Bucknell is the ranked team at #24 having won five in a row to improve to 21-3. Northern Iowa has struggled, going 2-3 since that time and dropping into a three way tie for second, one game behind Wichita State.    I think both teams equally need this game now with Northern Iowa's struggles.  However, what I said before remains true.  Bucknell's RPI has dropped to 40 despite the five wins because of their weak conference.  Northern Iowa has dropped slightly to #17 in the RPI. Bucknell's wins over Syracuse and St Joe's, impressive as they are, now are not quite as good due to the continuing struggles of Syracuse and St Joe's.  As far as I know Eric Crawford will not be back, but my prediction remains the same, though the game will be even closer now, 65-63 Northern Iowa.

But will I be upset if Bucknell wins...absolutely not.  If they do win, the NCAA should give the Bison the bid right after the game.  They would deserve it.

On February 2nd, I made the following prediction with George Mason and Wichita State.

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2/2/06

George Mason (RPI 35) vs  Wichita State (RPI 26) -  This is the second best game on Bracket Buster day.  For all the publicity the MVC gets, the CAA deserves some publicity too.  At this time, the CAA has 5 teams in the RPI 69 or higher, which is comparable to the MVC and better than conferences such as the A10 or the WAC.   

Perhaps the CAA's best team plays in this game.  George Mason is 15-5 and 9-2 in the competitive CAA (5 teams are within one game in the loss column for first place).   The Patriots have defeated teams such as Manhattan on the road (RPI 55), Old Dominion (RPI 40) and VCU (RPI 60).  However they suffered a 20 point loss at home to Creighton (RPI 25) and are only 5-4 on the road, though 3 of the losses were against quality opponents ( by 6 at UNC Wilmington - RPI 43, by 1 at Old Dominion, by 5 points at Wake Forest, who at the time was ranked in the top 25).  The difference this year in George Mason is defense.  Last year, having seen them play, they were a very porous defense.  This year is a much different story.  They lead the CAA in three defensive categories, limiting their opponents to 55.9 points per game, 36.7 shooting from the field and limiting opponents to 30 team rebounds a game.   George Mason can score too.   They lead the CAA in scoring margin by +14 (averaging 69 points a game) and average over 50% FG shooting per game. They are a balanced scoring team with all five scorers in double figures, led by senior center Jai Lewis who averages 13.5 points and 8.4 rebounds a game and is a huge load at 270 pounds (I think that figure is conservative).  He has excellent backcourt help in seniors Tony Skinn (13.1 points a game) and Lamar Butler (12.9 points a game).  Will Thomas (10.7 points a game) and Folarin Campbell (10.3 points a game) round out the double digit scoring.

Wichita State has only played two significant teams outside of conference, losing both by close margins (at #6 Illnois by one point and at #14 Michigan State by 19).  The Shockers of Wichita State average 70 points a game while giving up 61 points to their opponents. They average 45% from the field while hold opponents to 40%.  They outrebound their opponents per game by a margin of 6.  The Shockers are led by 6-10 senior center Paul Miller who averages 12.9 points per game.  He has help in 6-2 guard sophomore Sean Ogirri (11.4 points per game), 6-8 junior forward Kyle Wilson (11.3 points per game and sophomore 6-4 guard PJ Couisnard (10.6 points per game).

Who Needs This More - Both teams equally need it.  Both teams need a signature non conference game win if they have any chance at an large berth. 

Prediction - I left this note for last.  Wichita State, though tied for first place in the MVC at 9-3 has not defeated any of the teams it is currently tied with - 0-3 with losses to each Southern Illnois, Creighton and Northern Iowa, the last game a home loss by 14.  They play those three teams before they play George Mason (plus at Indiana State).  As of right now, Wichita State has not shown me that they can beat a good team at home or on the road.  They are also a young team, with Miller being the only senior among their starters.  George Mason is a veteran team with their three best players being all seniors.   I like the way George Mason plays defense and they are more than physical enough to hold their own against a young Wichita State team.   I like George Mason to upset Wichita State 67-61.
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Since then, Wichita State (RPI now 21) has gone 3-1, to improve to 12-4 and first place in the MVC.  George Mason (RPI now 27) has won five straight to improve to 20-5 overall.  This may have surpassed the Bucknell - Northern Iowa game as the best bracket buster game of the weekend.  My prediction still stands.  George Mason and their superior defense will be the difference over Wichita State. 

More predictions to come.