Its been a couple of days since I last posted, so I made up for it with a big post here. Its getting down to the end of the college basketball season. Really looking forward to this Final Four tonight. I know, I am a mid major guy and it would have been awesome to see Davidson take on North Carolina in a rematch of the first game of the season, the first game I saw on TV this year, an exciting four point win for the Tar Heels, who had to comeback to win. Alas, not to be. But if I couldn't get the Wildcats, at least we have all #1 seeds in the final. So this might be the best Final Four yet.
But first thing’s first. Ohio State used hot shooting from the field in the second half to comeback from a halftime deficit to defeat UMass 92-85. Kosta Koufos led four Buckeye scorers in double figures with 23 points. Ohio State shot 63 percent from the field in the second half, 56 percent overall and 52 percent from beyond the three point line (10 of 19). This offset the Minutemen’s 49-37 rebounding average including 30 on the offensive end. This accounted for 30 more shots by UMass than Ohio State. However, UMass only shot 36 percent from the field including 12 of 33 from beyond three. Evan Turner had 20 points, Jamar Butler added 19. Ricky Harris led all scorers with 27 for the Minutemen, Etienne Brower added 17 in the losing cause.
In the inaugural College Basketball Invitational Championship, Tulsa won the best of three series from Bradley, winning the third game 70-64 in front of a sellout crowd of 8500 in Tulsa. The home teams won each of the games in the final series. Ben Ozoh led the Golden Hurricane with 17 points. The Golden Hurricane came back from an early 16-2 deficit to win the CBI championship. The second half featured eleven lead changes as Tulsa went up to stay at 60-59 with 2:20 left. Bradley was led by Trevor Wilson with 17 points.
As for Final Four Predictions, well first, I think any of the four teams can win it all. That’s a no brainer statement considering all four teams were #1 seeds in their respective regions, an NCAA Tournament first. Each team is incredibly talented and just about all of them, with the possible exception of Memphis was a preseason Final Four candidate.
What do I think it comes down to? Defense and to a much lesser extent, free throw shooting. Defense wins championships. Say what you want about Florida’s great offensive prowess in their last two national championships. But it was the Gators defense that won against Ohio State last year. Greg Oden had a big game, but the Buckeyes with Oden were outrebounded by 10 rebounds and more importantly shot 4 of 23 from beyond the three point arc in that game. Against UCLA the year before, the Bruins only shot 36 percent from the field including 3 of 17 from beyond the three. The Gators shut down the outside perimeter on the Bruins and Buckeyes. And I think also in games that involve such good close teams, fundamentals such as free throw shooting play a big part. Thus a team like Memphis needs to shoot like it did against Texas and not the way they did against Mississippi State, the toughest opponent they actually had in the tournament so far.
In the first game, Memphis faces UCLA. What’s Love got to do with this game? A lot. I think the first key will be how Joey Dorsey mans up on the big fella. UCLA has been able to overcome a lot of their ineffective guard play from Josh Shipp and Russell Westbrook by their inside play of Love, Luc Richard Mbah a Moute and Darren Collison’s solid guard play. Kevin Love however has been the big man. Whether its grabbing an offensive rebound (had five vs. Xavier), posting up his man for two points (Love has shot 24 for 37 in his last three games) or free throws (16 of 21 in his last three games), or nailing a three pointer (2 of 4 vs. Xavier), he has been the man. Dorsey must bring his A game and contain Love.
Memphis relies heavily on their guards, Derrick Rose, Chris Douglas Roberts, Antonio Anderson and Doneal Mack, all of which their size causes significant matchup problems for their opposing teams. Texas faced Memphis in the final with the smaller guard trio of DJ Augustin, AJ Abrams and Justin Mason, the tallest being Mason at 6 foot 2, one inch shorter than Rose. This resulted in that aforementioned trio shooting a combined 13 for 42 (30 percent) against the Tigers. The key will be how Shipp, Westbrook and Collison, a little taller trio does against the Tigers. Shipp especially has a horrid tournament and the Bruins need a big game from Shipp against the Tigers to win.
Prediction - I think Memphis’ guards again will prove to be a difficult matchup for the Tigers. Derrick Rose is going to be a beast for Collison to contend with. I think Westbrook and Shipp can handle their own on the defensive end against Douglas Roberts and the Anderson-Mack tandem, but again I think Shipp will have another horrid shooting game especially someone as tall guarding him. Then it comes down to Dorsey and Dozier vs. Mbah a Moute and Love. I think Dorsey could be the difference maker, that’s if Dorsey comes to play (which I think he will). Love may decide to take him outside and hit some threes. But I think Dorsey does just enough to contain Love and the Tigers’ guard play makes up for the rest. Though I think the Tigers’ bad free throw shooting keeps it close, I like Memphis to win 74-70.
In the second game, North Carolina faces Kansas. Now this game has a lot of subplots. First, former KU coach, Roy Williams faces his alma mater for the first time in of all places, the biggest stage for such an event. Already Williams has to hear a lot of the talk about how he betrayed KU (a hot KU T shirt is the Benedict Williams T shirt) and how he never got them a championship. Second Bill Self, now getting the Final Four monkey off his back now gets to show his coaching prowess on the big stage. It will be interesting to see how he coaches in this situation he has so badly wanted to be in.
What do I think it comes down to. Well, first its going to be the Kansas big men, Darrell Arthur, Darnell Jackson and Sasha Kaun trying to contain Tyler Hansborough and the rest of Carolina on the defensive boards. If you look at North Carolina’s wins, they outrebounded their opponent each time. In the last win over Louisville, Hansborough had seven offensive rebounds, which certainly was a factor in him scoring 28 points. The key to containing Hansborough and to that extent Carolina, is keeping him off the glass. I think the Jayhawks also have the size and the numbers to contain Hansborough unlike any of the previous Tar Heel opponents.
Kansas also has the depth to shuttle guards to stay with the Tar Heel guards. I don’t think the loss of Roderick Stewart hurts all that much. The key for Kansas is stopping the penetration of Lawson and Ellington. North Carolina doesn’t shoot the three particularly well. In the last two games in the tournament vs. Wash State and Louisville, the Tar Heels shot 5 of 15 and 3 of 11 respectively from three. That further brings home the point that they like to work it inside.
For North Carolina, basically they have to play better defense. Their lone really good defensive game of the tournament was their win over Washington State where they held the Cougars to 31 percent from the field. However, Louisville shot 52 percent from the field, Arkansas 47 percent and even Mount St Mary’s shot 43 percent. None of those teams have the firepower that Kansas has. Not even close.
My prediction. By Roy Williams comments and demeanor, the pre-game hype of this matchup and the seemingly bad feelings there is among the KU faithful has gotten to Williams, by all accounts a decent but sensitive man. Whether he can shut that out during the game is a question. However, undeniably, Williams’ team does not play defense as good as Kansas does. Kansas led the Big 12 in steals, blocks, and field goal percentage defense. Also I think Carolina’s style of pace plays well into the hands of the Jayhawks, who, though not as prolific as Carolina on offense, is still quite good. I think Kansas will do a much better job keeping Hansborough off the glass and affecting his shots with their length than other teams have so far. I think its close, but in the end the better defense prevails. Kansas 81 North Carolina 76.
Finally, I have to talk about Eric Gordon, the freshman guard for Indiana, who is declaring for the NBA Draft. As many of you may know, I have been highly critical of Gordon’s play during their first round loss to Arkansas in the Raleigh Regional that I attended. The effort he gave in that game was so lacking, at times I didn’t even seem to notice him on the court. If I were Tom Crean, I would do one thing. Let him go. From all reports, his disdain for playing was clearly evident since Kelvin Sampson was forced to resign from the head coaching position. He along with several others gave up on assistant coach Dan Dakich. Now Gordon shot 43 percent from the field for the season, and he very well is a fine scorer at the college level, but look at how he shot the ball from the field in games against good teams with good guards.
Xavier - 4 of 12
UConn - 5 of 16
Wisconsin - 6 of 14
Ohio State - 4 of 10
Wisconsin - 7 of 17
Mich State - 9 of 15
Purdue - 4 of 12
Ohio State - 4 of 16
Michigan State - 7 of 14
Total - 50 of 126 - 39.6 percent
Take away the two Michigan State games and he was 34 of 97 - 35 percent.
Now look at his last 3 games against Penn State, in the Big Ten Tournament and the NCAA Tournament
Penn State - 8 of 24
Minnesota - 4 of 13
Arkansas - 3 of 15
Total - 15 of 52 - 28 percent
Now whether it was a question of attitude or good defense or off shooting nights in the Penn State and Minnesota games, I can’t tell you. Like I said though in the Arkansas game, I can clearly tell you the effort was not there. No heart. He often settled for shooting 3 point jumpers (he was 0 of 6 from beyond three that night). Now I am not the only one who had to of seen this down the stretch. NBA scouts were definitely watching these games. If you’re a NBA GM, and you see these stats there are two things you ask yourself;
1) “Would he give this kind of effort if he didn’t like playing for my coach?”
2) Is he really a good shooter? Can he get off a good shot against a good defensive guard/against better competition?
Right now the answers are “Quite possibly yes” and “Not really”. That doesn’t sound like a Top Ten pick to me. My advice to Eric Gordon. If you plan to go out for the draft, don’t sign with an agent and give Marty Blake, Director of NBA Scouting a call. He’ll tell you if you are good enough or not.
But here’s a better idea for you Eric. You should do some reading up on the internet and see what Crean has done with his guard oriented system over the years at Marquette, which by the way, included a certain NBA MVP and NBA Finals MVP. Yes, I am talking about Dwayne Wade. Perhaps Gordon has forgot that Wade played for Crean at Marquette. Perhaps Gordon can give Crean a call and find out why Wade called Crean and left him a message at 1:30 in the morning after just leading the Miami Heat to the NBA championship in 2006. Probably because Wade knows how great a coach and person Tom Crean is. Maybe Eric Gordon will stay and find out. He should.
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