Well, I never got a chance to do part II until this evening and even wilder things have happened today. We had #12 Xavier get knocked off, a tornado may have touched down near the Georgia Dome, a MAC tournament semifinal was played and officiated like a rugby match, and we actually had a top seed play well in the Big East tournament.
Welcome to Bubbleland
Thursday Bubble teams
Well, there were several games yesterday that had major implications. The first game, which I referred to the clunker of the day was in the Big 12 Tournament, where the #5 seed Baylor lost to the #12 Colorado in the first round of the tournament in double overtime. It was the first time ever in the Big 12 Tourney that the #12 seed ever defeated the #5 seed. I was watching the end of the game on ESPN360 and Baylor had two chances to win the game in regulation. First, Kevin Rogers missed two free throws with 1:15 left. Then after a Colorado miss, Baylor had a chance to win the game again. During this I emailed my friend Grant Hayden, a Kansas graduate and big time Jayhawk fan and supporter of the Big 12 updates of the game. The Bears ran the clock down to like 7 seconds left on the shot clock and the point guard does a one on one and takes a stupid three-point attempt. I told Grant that it looked like a late game Hofstra possession. With the loss, Baylor now changes places with Texas A&M (who won their first round game) and puts itself squarely on the bubble. The Bears do have a neutral site wins vs. Notre Dame and Winthrop in the Paradise Jam tournament. The Bears (#42 RPI) though have lost 6 of their last 10 games and their record against the other top five teams in the league is 2-5. It’s going to be very close for the Bears
Another team that really shot itself in the foot yesterday was UMass. The Minutemen shot out to a 17 point halftime lead against Charlotte yesterday 36-19. Then the Minutemen allowed the 49ers score 50 second half points as Leemire Goldwire buried UMass with two three pointers at the end of the game. Now the Minutemen must wait anxiously await their fate. Their RPI is #43, one behind fellow new bubble member Baylor. However, unlike Baylor, UMass does not have a signature non-conference win now that Houston and Syracuse are out of the running for at large bids.
The Pac-10 has three bubble teams, but I have already stated in yesterday’s post that Arizona should be out of the competition. As my friend Mal Galletta pointed out to me, Arizona is like Josh Booty, “they bite” (the Josh Booty reference was to the former Marlin 3B and LSU quarterback who stunk at two sports and who during a voice mail message to Mal, I commented “He bites”. So it has become a classic with us).
Now the other two bubble teams are Oregon and Arizona State, both of which lost their quarterfinal round games to Wash State and USC respectively. Arizona State is probably the team that’s on the outside looking in. The Sun Devils have one signature non-conference win, a home win over Xavier. Other than that, their RPI is low at 82 and their record against the top five teams in the Pac-10 is now 3-8 (wins over Oregon, Stanford, and USC, all at home). They are 5-10 in their last 15 games. Could be a very long day on Selection Sunday for the Sun Devils.
Oregon is another close call. They do have a non-conference win at Kansas State; so that’s a good signature win for the Beavers (they also lost at St Mary’s). They did win six of their last 10 and their RPI is better than Arizona State’s at 56. However, their record against the top six other Pac-10 teams (including Arizona) is 4-9. So they barely stand out from the other two bubble teams in their conference. So they too will be sweating out Selection Sunday.
Villanova made an early comeback in the second half, but the Hoyas were too tough for the Wildcats, defeating them in a quarterfinal game on Thursday 82-63. With that loss, the Wildcats are another team that will be anxiously watching the Selection show on Sunday. Will the Committee take eight Big East teams? Nova was .500 in conference but their only signature non-conference wins were neutral site wins vs. George Mason and Temple (don’t laugh, that win vs. the Owls may be huge on selection Sunday now). The RPI is ok at 52. We’ll have to see.
Now to Friday’s Bubble games
Ohio State after winning its first round game lost a tough game to Michigan State 67-60. The Buckeyes were 10-8 in the Big Ten, which is a better conference record than a good number of other power conference bubble teams (Texas A&M, Baylor, Miami Fla, Oregon, ASU to name a few). Their RPI is respectable at 46 and the SOS is very good at 14. The problem is their two best non-conference wins were over Syracuse (hell, everyone beats them in non conference) and Florida. Their conference record vs. the top teams in the Big 12 is 2-6, though two of them were at the end of the season over Purdue and Michigan State. They were also 4-6 in their last 10. Another team that will be very anxious come Sunday.
Virginia Tech held Miami Fla to 31 percent shooting from the field and downed the Hurricanes 63-49 and improved their at large bid chances. The Hokies have a RPI of 59 and a SOS of 52. Their problem is that they have lost against every good non-conference opponent they have faced. They are also 1-4 against the other top 4 teams in the ACC, with that only win being against Miami today. The Hokies desperately need a semifinal win vs. North Carolina otherwise they could be left out on Selection Sunday.
Miami, despite losing to Va Tech, is in much better shape. In non-conference, the Hurricanes have a road win at Mississippi State, a neutral site win over VCU. The Hurricanes also have conference wins over Duke, Clemson and Va Tech and also even after today, had won 7 of their last 10 games. The Canes look to me to be in. We’ll see.
Now it gets even crazier in the A10 and Tom Kemp is just going nuts over this. First, St Joseph’s dominates, I mean dominates Xavier, upsetting the Musketeers 61-53. The Hawks were up 10 at the half, then scored the first five points to go up 15 and never were really threatened again. St Joe’s now faces Temple for an all A10 Philly final (apropos since Atlantic City, where the A10 tourney is being held, is only one hour away from Philly) as the Owls crushed Charlotte 60-45.
What does this mean now for the wacky A10? Well first, St Joe’s is in after being Xavier now twice during the season (despite their only non conf win being over Villanova). Second, I think Temple replaces UMass as the potential third team from the A10. Temple’s RPI has improved to 60. Their problem is that their non-conference record is even weaker than St Joe’s with their best non-conference win a 2-point win over Ohio. Ugh.
You know, Tom Kemp, you are right. The A10 is just not that strong as they were a month ago or maybe not that strong to begin with. If St Joe’s beats Temple, the committee should only take St Joseph’s and Xavier. VCU, Illinois State, Arizona State and yes even the Josh Booty like Arizona have better cases than Temple and UMass.
Texas A&M has clinched a spot in the tournament after knocking off Michael Beasley and Kansas State. Finally, I just watched an absolute slugfest in the MAC tournament semifinal game between Kent State and Miami Ohio. It was like watching football, except for no penalties (in this case fouls) being called. The officiating like the play was brutal. Kent State won on a late driving layup by Al Fisher and now faces Akron in the final.
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