Now, the first thing is read my Moore's Primer for Selection Sunday. That will give you the guidelines necessary to see who really is in and who is really out.
Who is Definitely Out or No Thought Was Needed on This Category
Maryland, Syracuse, Mississippi, Dayton, Houston, UAB, New Mexico, Florida. All lost in the quarters or earlier rounds. Besides, any decent team beat Syracuse in non conference (Rhode Island, UMass, Ohio State). Sorry, no dancing for you.
The Bubble Toils For You Category (In Other Words, We Gave It Some Thought, But You’re Out)
UMass - You were the third A10 team, looked like you had the deal done. But you had to go out and lose in the quarters to a team Hofstra beat this season (Charlotte)! Oh and that strong strength of schedule. What were the two best non conference wins..yeah Syracuse. Um, see above and Houston, um see above too. You’re out.
Arizona - Lets see, couldn’t have made my case stronger for the Wildcats being out of the NCAA Tournament. 4-8 in their last twelve games. Check. Sub .500 record in conference. Check. 3-9 vs other top six Pac-10 teams. Check. 1-9 vs other Top Pac-10 teams not Washington State. Check. 5-10 vs. probably/possible NCAA teams. Check. Got swept by both fellow Pac 10 bubble teams Oregon AND Arizona State. Check. Didn’t even win 60 percent of their games. Check. They have nearly violated every Moore Primer Rule. What else is there to say? If their name wasn’t Arizona, we wouldn’t be having this discussion. You can not reward mediocrity in this tournament. Mediocrity thy name is Arizona. FOR THE LOVE OF GOD, PLEASE KEEP THIS TEAM OUT OF THE TOURNAMENT!!
VCU - Anthony Grant, God knows I love the CAA and you won the CAA convincingly, but as I stated in a previous post, your team wasn’t good as last year and the CAA was weaker this year than the last two years (I will write about that very soon). The non conference wins over Akron, Maryland and Houston look weaker now that Maryland and Houston aren’t in the discussion and Akron couldn’t seal the deal vs Kent State. You couldn’t even beat George Mason in that one game you played against each other. If you could only have beaten Arkansas or Miami Fla in that O'Reilly Auto Parts Puerto Rico Tip-Off at the beginning of the year. We wouldn’t be having this discussion. You’d be in, you’d be happy, I’d be happy. But I am afraid I have to say goodbye. The CAA is a one bid league for the first time in three years.
Now It Gets Really Hard or Who Were the Last Teams Left Out Thanks to Temple, San Diego and Western Kentucky
Villanova - You did us all a favor beating Syracuse so convincingly. Thank you so much for sparing us from another Dicky V rant about how Boeheim and his overrated Orange got robbed. Now comes the tough part. Did you do enough during the season to warrant an at large bid? Well you were .500 in conference. Not good. However, you did win seven of your last eleven games, a Moore requirement. You did win two non conference games against two tournament teams; George Mason and Temple, but they were the best opponents you beat. You were only 3-5 vs the other top seven teams in the Big East, but those wins were over UConn, Pitt and West Virginia and they all are dancing. Your RPI was 51, SOS 47, decent numbers, but the record vs RPI top 25 was 2-6 (better when it was Top 100 7-9). However, with those three above teams winning this week, the number of open slots got smaller. And the critical, fatal blow was losing to St Joseph’s, another bubble team, one of Moore’s key selection primer rules. Sorry, Wildcats you are out.
Virginia Tech - Oh, Seth Greenberg. You laid down the challenge to the committee yesterday after losing a heartbreaker to North Carolina at the buzzer, thanks to Tyler Hansborough (didn’t block out the NCAA player of the Year on the last shot..not good there). Your RPI of 59 and a SOS of 52 isn’t horrible. But as I stated on Friday, your problem is that you have lost against every good non-conference opponent you have faced. Furthermore, despite finishing fourth in the ACC, you are also 1-4 against the other top 4 teams in the ACC, with that only win being against Miami on Friday. You also only went 5-5 in your last 10 games. I said you “desperately need a semifinal win vs. North Carolina otherwise they [you] could be left out on Selection Sunday.” I guess I am one of those “certifiably insane” people you talked about. The problem is that more importantly the Selection Committee must be "certifiably insane" too. You’re going to the NIT.
Ohio State - Well, the two time defending national champs will be out in the cold, how about the runner-up in last year’s championship. Well, the Buckeyes, who finished fifth in the Big Ten with a 10-8 conference record, do have a RPI of 46 and a SOS of 10. However, their record vs. Top 50 RPI teams is an absolutely ugly 2-10. Their saving grace is wins over Michigan State and Purdue at the end of the year, their only two Top 50 RPI wins. However both wins were at home. The only two good non conference wins are home wins against Florida and Syracuse, both sub Top 50 RPI and both teams are headed to the NIT. Even finishing fifth in their conference, the Buckeyes are going to be left at home.
Ok, Who Gets In (Right Now, By the Hair of Their Chinny Chin Chin)
St Joseph’s - You couldn’t make it easier for the Selection Committee, could you. You had everyone fooled, after beating Xavier twice and going up 10 late in the first half on Temple (it was seven at halftime). No, the Owls come out shooting 62 percent in the second half, Pat Calathes was so exhausted, he couldn’t have covered me at the end of the game, and the Owls get the automatic bid to the tournament. So thanks to you, now another team previously mentioned gets to go to the NIT. Why, well because you beat Xavier twice during the season, swept UMass and got that absolutely crucial win over Villanova. Also your decent RPI of 42 and SOS of 51 helps. You did this despite being the only decent team not to beat Syracuse in non conference and losing to every other good non-conference opponent besides Nova.
Kentucky - Another team that could have made the next category but had to go out and get outplayed by the lowest seed in the SEC tournament. You were 12-4 in the SEC, which is always impressive, and you beat Tennessee, Vanderbilt and Arkansas in conference. However, all three games were at home and you also fed yourselves on the bottom fodder of the conference, going 9-1. Would have been nice if you won a good non conference game, but you didn’t. Still 3-3 vs the top dogs of the SEC is decent and a lot of other bubble teams did worse against the top teams in the conference (queue Arizona as an example). You’re going to be a low seed, probably a 10, maybe even an 11, but you’re in thanks to that 12-4 record in the SEC, which thanks to the tournament is proving to be tougher than people thought. Hope you are coming to Raleigh so I can see the beautiful Ashley Judd in attendance. Sigh.
Oregon - The Ducks shouldn’t be in this spot after being ranked early in the year, but losing 12 games on the season and finishing .500 in conference often lead to this fate. The Ducks also lost in the quarters to Wash State, so they truly became bubblicious. However, the Ducks have a very good non conference road win vs. Kansas State and they have a 3-1 record vs Arizona and Arizona State, the other two bubble teams (they of course swept Arizona). Plus they won six out of their last 11, which isn’t great, but not as bad as Arizona or ASU. They also have a win vs. Stanford. Its close, but the Beavers get in by their large buckteeth.
Arizona State - Now a lot of prognosticators have ASU out and Arizona in, but I am going to leave it to the good sense of the committee to do the right thing if they decide to pick a sixth Pac-10 team over an eighth Big East Team. Now if it were based on SOS and RPI, the Wildcats have the Sun Devils beat easy (Zona has a RPI of 38 and SOS of 2, while ASU is 83 and 88, by far the worse numbers of any bubble team). However, the Sun Devils do have a comparable signature non conference win over Xavier, as opposed to Zona’s win at UNLV and home win over Texas A&M. ASU also has wins over Stanford, USC and Oregon comparable to Zona’s 2 wins over Washington State and a win over USC. However, here are the three key facts 1) ASU finished ahead of Arizona in the Pac 10. 2) Arizona was swept by Oregon while Arizona State split with the Ducks and more importantly 3) ASU SWEPT ARIZONA. Simply put, you can’t put the Wildcats ahead of the Sun Devils. So if the Committee is looking to put a sixth Pac 10 team in, then the Sun Devils are it. Now its possible that Nova might get the last spot before ASU, but my guess is that they put a sixth Pac 10 team in and put ASU in before Arizona. I could be wrong, but somehow I think the committee puts a sixth Pac 10 team in...but you never know.
Illinois State - Now this is the team that is going to get a lot of complaints if they get in, and I think right now they will. The Redbirds finished second in a very tough conference, the Missouri Valley with a 13-5 record. They also made it to the finals of the Missouri Valley championship, no easy feat in itself. You swept perennial conference powers Creighton and Southern Illinois during the season, an impressive feat. The RPI is a very very solid 34 and the SOS is a respectable 65. However, you have no good non-conference wins to speak of (the best was over Cincinnati - not very good this year) and Drake defeated you in all three games including a 30 point blow out in the championship game. Not a good impression to leave with the Committee. Still, since 1999, the Missouri Valley has had at least two teams in the NCAA tournament and the history of the MVC in the NCAA tournament speaks for itself. I think this year is no exception and the Redbirds will sneak in.
Who Looks Safe, But Don’t Make Your Travel Plans Yet
St Mary’s - This is the team on the list that should fear the least. With wins over Gonzaga, Oregon, Seton Hall and Drake at home (if you think that was no mean feat, ask Butler about that), the Gaels have the non-conference resume to go with that 25-6 record. Also upon closer inspection, they don’t have any bad losses; lost to Gonzaga, twice at WCC champion San Diego including the conference semi-final, lost to Kent State, who is now getting the recognition they deserve, Texas (a possible #1 seed) and at Southern Illinois, who until their loss to Northern Iowa in the MVC tourney, was getting at large bid talk. And the Gaels won seven out of their last ten, which is perfectly fine. However, they lost three out of their last five games and blowing a 26-7 lead vs. San Diego in that semifinal just isn’t the way to finish the season and had to give the committee a little pause. But as stated, the resume is fine for a probable 10 seed.
Baylor - This is the team that should fear the most being put in the previous category. Despite finishing fifth in the Big 12, the Bears struggled down the stretch. At one time, the Bears were 16-2 and highly ranked. Then Baylor proceeded to go 5-8 down the stretch, including that absolute clunker against Colorado in the first round of the Big 12 tournament. That put the Bears in Big 12 infamy as the first #5 seed to ever lose to a #12 seed in the tournament. Ouch. Also the 2-6 record vs other Top Big 12 teams is nothing to write home about Still, the Bears have enough good things on their resume to get in such as non conference wins. They won the Paradise Jam tournament over Notre Dame and Winthrop, two tournament bound teams. Their RPI is 43 and SOS is 40, both pretty strong. Still, Texas A&M leap frogged them into that fifth spot for Big 12 teams making the dance, so being #6 won’t be easy. But they’ll get in..but not by much.
South Alabama - The Jaguars are another team based on their Sun Belt tournament play should be feeling a bit uneasy right now. They won the regular season Sun Belt championship on the strength of their two wins over Western Kentucky, the eventual tournament champion. However, the Jaguars struggled in all places, at home during the conference tournament (the Sun Belt awards the regular season conference champion with home court during the tournament). The Jaguars struggled to beat New Orleans in the quarterfinals then were simply outplayed and beaten by Middle Tennessee State in the semifinals. Still the Jaguars impressive wins over Western Kentucky and Mississippi State coupled with a RPI of 37 should be enough to get them in. They also lost very close games at Vanderbilt and Mississippi, so the SOS isn’t that bad. Still the committee has them as one of their final eight choices, so the Jags will be getting a #11 seed or at best a #10 despite all their good work.
Well, we’ll see how this all shakes out in about seven hours. Can’t wait..
Please oh please committee, send Kentucky to Raleigh.. I need to see Ashley Judd...pretty please?..
Gary,
A really great post. Sorry I put mine up after yours!
I agree with nearly every one of your predicitions but naturally I have a couple of comments. First, about St Joe's surprise!). If your best win out of the league all season has an RPI of 49, a league record of 9-9, and a top 100 record of 7-9, with not one impressive win out of conference, what is that?
St Joe's ends up with a low 40's RPI because the league is thought to be better than it is, so even when the teams beat each other it actually helps their rating. Their is no evidence based on the leagues out of conferences games. Sure wish that was the case in the CAA and the MAC! (Oh yeah, Miami also beat Xavier!)
I have an idea. Next year I think both the MAC and the CAA should declare that they are not Mid Major conferences and that they consider it an embarrassment to be thought of as such. Both conferences would probably move into the top 10!
Next, I disagree about Arizona State. With an RPI in the 80's if you take them you take Miami of Ohio! You just cannot do it.
I also do not think Villanova is in or Ohio State, but I do think Virginia Tech and believe it or not Dayton will be in. I am not certain about UMass, but even as I rant the A-10 could get four teams in (or two!).
Finally, I agree...let's go to Raleigh!
Posted by: Tom | March 16, 2008 at 03:28 PM
How can a low RPI (32) a stong strength of schedule and a good record vs top 100 (9-5) keep Dayton out of NCAA field? Should they be a number one in the NIT?
Posted by: Dick Reardon | March 16, 2008 at 08:58 PM