I am heading down to Richmond tomorrow morning starting around 4:00 am. Another year, another road trip. This is my sixth season going down for the “Jammin at the James” and I wouldn’t have it any other way. Nothing like having breakfast at Aunt Sarah’s Pancake House before the day session starts. Nothing like hearing the JMU band play (for one round only since the Dukes always lose). Nothing like the UNC Wilmington fans, the nicest fans in the CAA. Nothing like the VCU dance team..well, if you have seen the VCU dance team, you know why. Sorry, couldn’t resist.
For those of you not going to Richmond, you can catch the first round action on CAASports.com. Mike Glitos has noted on his site, Life as a Mid Major, that there are only 1000 tickets left for the semifinal round and less than that for the finals. The Richmond Memorial Coliseum should be hopping this weekend Nice!
So here are my predictions for the whole entire tournament.
First Round
Game 1 - #9 Towson vs. #8 Hofstra - There is a question to whether Junior Hairston plays for Towson (7-11 CAA). I don’t think it matters. The Pride match up well size wise vs the Tigers. Hofstra (8-10) has played well down the stretch and looked very impressive in their win vs. the Tigers at the Mack Arena. Tigers only hope is that Hofstra turns the ball over as much as they did in the first game (22 turnovers), a 60-51 win by the Tigers at home. However, first Team All CAA Antoine Agudio and Rookie of the Year in the CAA Charles Jenkins make a formidable tandem and will be too much for the Tigers, who are 1-13 on the road or at neutral sites. Make it 1-14 after tomorrow.
Game 2 - # 12 Georgia State vs. #5 William and Mary - If there is going to be an upset in the first round, this is it. This is a rematch of the first round game from last year’s tournament, won on a three point miracle buzzer beater by Leonard Mendez. The Tribe limped to the finish, losing 6 out of their last 7 games to go from a second place 9-2 record to a 10-8 fifth place record. Georgia State, though 5-13 in conference has actually won 3 out of its last 5 games and always seems to do well in the first round of the CAA tournament, winning both times in the first round matchups since joining the conference in 2005-06. The Panthers will find a way to send the Tribe home early again this season.
Game 3 - # 7 Delaware vs. #10 Drexel - Only the Tribe and the Dukes had a worse collapse in conference than the Blue Hens. Delaware started 5-0 in conference then preceded to lose 9 of their last 14 games in conference. Still a .500 record is respectable considering where the Blue Hens were last year. Herb Courtney finally got some help from Marc Egerson and Brian Johnson. Meanwhile, what a year a difference makes. The Dragons, last year were the road warriors, leading the NCAA in road wins. This year they were 3-10 on the road. Worse yet is their outside shooting. They could have the worse collection of outside shooters ever. Frank Elegar can’t save the Dragons here as Delaware moves on to the next round.
Game 4 - #6 Northeastern vs. #11 James Madison - Talk about a collapse. The Dukes started the year 10-3 and 3-0 in the CAA. JMU then preceded to lose 13 of the next 15 games in conference. No wonder Dean Keener resigned as coach. There is a lot of offensive talent on the Dukes with Abdual Jalloh and Kyle Swanston. Unfortunately there is not a lot of defensive talent on the Dukes. Northeastern is one of those young talented teams that either looks really good or really bad. Matt Janning, averaging 16 points per game, looks to be a budding star and they have some nice size up front. Better defense always win, and the Huskies end the Dukes season on a fitting note. Seems that I won’t see the best pep band in the CAA, the JMU band more than once again.
Second Round
VCU (15-3 CAA) doesn’t exactly have an easy bracket for being a #1 seed. Hofstra is a pretty good #8 seed, especially with the Agudio/Jenkins tandem. And though I know Hofstra has a propensity to turn the ball over, the Rams are not as good as last year’s team, despite their record. The Rams don’t have the inside play due to Wil Fameni’s injury and Michael Anderson’s inconsistency. Larry Sanders though is a blocking machine. It will be interesting to see Sanders and Hofstra’s block shot master Dane Johnson go at it. If I were the cheerleaders for both sides, I would wear protective gear when these two are on the court because the balls will be swatted everywhere. Fortunately, the Rams have a loud hometown crowd, and the dynamic duo of CAA Player of the Year Eric Maynor and fellow First Team All CAA Jamal Shuler (by the way, justly deserved). Anthony Grant's press philosophy fits this athletic VCU team so well. They will overcome the Pride in a much closer game than people think.
#4 Old Dominion (11-7 CAA) is my sleeper team here. The Monarchs are known for their depth, and once again with nine players averaging 10 minutes or more, ODU is the perfect team to play three games in three days. The key is getting the ball to their best player, Gerald Lee. When the Monarchs are playing well, the guards three point shooting is kept to a minimum and Lee is getting a lot of touches. When the Monarchs don’t play well its because Brandon Johnson and Brian Henderson are chucking up threes to the tune of 6 of 25 shooting (see their loss to UNCW). However I can’t see the Panthers pulling off two upsets in a row, even if the Monarchs guards do some serious bricklaying. The Monarchs will be too much for the Panthers.
#3 UNCW (12-6 CAA) has the most balanced scoring of any team in the league. With First Team All CAA, T.J. Carter, Daniel Fountain (don’t worry Mr. Glitos, Fountain will pull another Stokes and be ready for this game), Todd Hendley and Vladimir Kuljanin, this team can score with anyone. They looked so solid in both their wins over George Mason. Unfortunately at times this team seems to fall asleep at the wheel and give up a ton of points (see their 84-73 loss at home to Vermont on Bracket Buster weekend). Delaware has the capability to hang with UNCW with Egerson and Courtney. However, the Seahawk balance will pull them away to a comfortable win.
If there is going to be a second round upset, here’s the one. The enigma that is #3 George Mason (12-6 CAA) takes on Northeastern. These two played last weekend in the final regular season game for each and the Huskies won 70-57. It’s a very simple formula to beat George Mason; Deny First Team All CAA and inside beast Will Thomas the ball and let the guards on Mason shoot. Against the Huskies, Thomas had 15 points but only on 5 of 7 shooting from the field (though he was 5 of 8 from the line). Attention GMU guards, I have three words of advice for you. FEED THE BEAST (with all apologies to Thomas). Folarin Campbell makes a great second scoring option for the Patriots, but its Thomas that makes them go. Work it inside then if not open, let him kick it out for the open jumper. He should average 12-14 attempts per game.
The Huskies match up well with GMU with Manny Adako, Eugene Spates and Nkem Ojougboh. I like the Huskies to knock off the Patriots and advance to the semis.
Semifinal Round
If there is any team that matches up really well with VCU, its ODU. They have the depth and the solid frontcourt to give the Rams fits and solid guards to handle their pressure. It comes down to the Monarchs guards, Johnson and Henderson shooting well from the floor. Against VCU at the Alltel Center, Johnson and Henderson combined to shoot 12 of 17 from the field. They will need to do that again to beat the Rams. My guess is that they won’t this time and the Rams will hold on to win..barely. But I wouldn't be surprised if the Monarchs pull the upset. Blaine Taylor is one of the more underrated coaches in the game.
UNCW gets a Huskies team that’s playing their third game in three days and the wear will show here. The Seahawks are too balanced and Kuljanin and Hendley will be too much a load for Adako, Ojougboh, and friends. UNCW moves onto the final.
Final
You would think UNCW would matchup well against VCU considering their three guards Chad Tomko, T.J. Carter and Daniel Fountain are so good. Well the Rams have handed the Seahawks their lunch in their two matchups this season, winning both games by 15 and 14 points respectively. The Seahawks trio of Carter, Tomko and Fountain have shot 11 of 32 and 9 of 30 in those respective games. Just goes to show how good Maynor and Shuler are defensively.
The Rams will win, but the CAA for the first time in three years will be a one bid league.
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