Well BracketBuster weekend is upon us now and its starts with two games tonight, six tomorrow and one on Sunday. Of these nine games, there are two games with major NCAA tournament implications (Drake vs. Butler and Kent State vs. St. Mary’s), four with lesser NCAA tournament implications but still of importance (Davidson vs. Winthrop, VCU vs Akron, Creighton vs. Oral Roberts and Wright State vs. Illinois State). Then there are eight games where an NCAA tournament at large bid is a dead issue but momentum into conference tourneys are key (George Mason vs Ohio, UC Santa Barbara vs Utah State, Nevada vs Southern Illinois, Marist at Cleveland State, Wisconsin-Milwaukee at Bradley, Siena at Boise State, Rider at Cal State Northridge, Miami (Ohio) at Valparaiso)
Here’s a quick breakdown of the first four games
1) Davidson vs. Winthrop - This is a battle of a team that wants to be this year’s Winthrop, Davidson vs. the remnants of last year’s Winthrop. It was during last year’s Friday night Brackebuster game at Missouri State that Winthrop first burst onto the scene with an impressive 77-66 win before going onto the NCAA tournament and dumping Notre Dame in the first round. Davidson also made the tournament last year losing to Maryland in the first round.
This year Davidson was the hot mid major team to watch out for. Ranked early in the season, the Wildcats proceeded to lose very close games to North Carolina, Duke, UCLA and NC State. Because of their non conference schedule, the Wildcats started the year 4-6, but righted themselves with an 16-0 run, going undefeated in conference at 18-0. Of course, the team revolves around star guard Stephen Curry and his nearly 26 points per game average. However Curry has a fellow backcourt mate Jason Richards who averages 13 points per game and 8 assists per game. The Wildcats average a nearly staggering 80 points per game.
Coming off their best season ever, Winthrop struggled at the outset, going 5-5. However in those first ten games, Winthrop played the likes of Baylor, Missouri State, Georgia Tech, West Virginia, Mississippi, and Akron After that .500 start, the Eagles have gone 13-4 (including a big win at then #19 ranked Miami Florida) and have won four games in a row in the Big South to move into first place at 9-3. The Eagles still have several starters from that 2006-07 squad including leading scorer senior Michael Jenkins at 14 points per game, forward Taj McCullough at 12 points per game, and senior guard Chris Gaynor at 10 points per game. The Eagles are much more of a defensive squad, limiting their opponents to 59 points per game.
Analysis - It’s a contrast of styles. A high scoring Davidson team vs Winthrop’s half court style of offense and defense. If the game is in the 70s or higher, that pace favors Davidson. If the game is in the 60s or lower, that pace favors Winthrop. Winthrop is better than people think and their only loss at home was to Missouri State. Davidson does play well on the road at 9-3. Davidson needs this game more because of their ever growing NCAA at large resume bid. This will be a very close game, and though I won’t be surprised if Winthrop wins, I will say Davidson with Curry will overcome the road factor and wins at the end 73-69.
2) UCSB vs. Utah State - A matchup of former Big West conference foes. Utah State (18-9, 8-4 WAC) moved to the WAC three years ago and has continued the success they had previously in the Big West, including an NCAA tournament selection in 2005-06 and a NIT bid last year. This is UC Santa Barbara’s best season since 2001-02 when they upset Utah State in the finals in the Big West to make the NCAA tournament. The Gauchos (20-6, 9-4 Big West) are lead by senior guard Alex Harris who averages 20 points per game. The Aggies are led by senior guard Jaycee Carroll who averages 22 points per game and shoots over 50 percent from three. The Gauchos big win on the season was a home win over UNLV. The Aggies have a 20 point win over Oral Roberts.
Analysis - Both teams are three point shooting wizards. Utah State shoots 40 percent from three ,with the aforementioned Carroll shooting an unbelievable 90 of 174 from three. However, UCSB shoots even better from three at 41 percent from the field. Harris shoots 47 percent from the field (63 of 134) , and guard James Powell shoots 43 percent (55 of 128). This does not bode well for a Utah State team that allows 37 percent shooting from three.
Utah State has fallen on hard times recently, falling out of first place in the WAC by losing three games in the row all on the road. The Aggies are 3-8 on the road for the season. However this game is at home and the Aggies are a perfect 11-0. However, the Aggies have played very few teams as good as UCSB at home. The Gauchos are 8-2 on the road, which includes a win at second place Cal State Fullerton, so the Gauchos are accustomed to winning in hostile courts. Since the Gauchos defend the three much better (30 percent three point field goal defense) than Utah State, look for the Gauchos to light up the scoreboard and put the first L on the season for the Aggies at home. UCSB wins 82-77.
3) VCU at Akron - These are two teams who looked at the beginning of the season to be legitimate contenders for at large bids to the NCAA tournament. VCU was coming off a magical season where they won the CAA tournament, then knocked off Duke in the first round of the NCAA tournament, then barely losing to Pittsburgh in the second round. Akron was the best team in the MAC regular season going 13-3 and 26-7 overall before losing in the MAC championship game 53-52 on a last second miracle shot by Miami of Ohio’s Doug Penno (Cedrick Middleton’s missed free throw on a one and one attempt is further proof how missed free throws hurt). How they didn’t get a NIT bid is beyond me.
This year VCU is at the top of the CAA with a 13-3 record and 20-6 overall. Akron has not done as well as expected but still 9-4 in conference and 19-7 overall is still impressive. For VCU, as it was last year, its their guards, Eric Maynor and Jamal Shuler who combine average 34 points per game. For Akron, its their big man, Jeremiah Wood, who averages 13 points and nearly 8 rebounds a game. He is aided by guard Nick Dials who average 12.
Analysis - You have the number one scoring offense in the MAC, Akron vs. the number one scoring defense in the CAA, VCU, so something has to give. For Akron, it comes down to handling the VCU press. The Zips have the best turnover margin in the MAC at +3.65. However, they are playing the number one team in the CAA in steals and also the number one team in the CAA in turnover margin as well at +2.23. Akron does have the big man in Jeremiah Wood that could give VCU fits and as noted here before, VCU does not have good scoring options in the frontcourt, so advantage Akron. Akron though is at the bottom of the MAC in field goal percentage defense at 45.4 percent.
What I think makes the difference is the strength of schedule, which I think comes into play in very close games. VCU has beaten Houston, Maryland, Bradley and Richmond and lost close games to Arkansas and Miami Florida. Akron’s schedule was much weaker with their only non conference win to speak of being a home win to Temple, though they lost close games at Dayton and at Winthrop. That experience of close games plus the guard play of Maynor and Shuler will make the difference - VCU wins 67-64.
4) George Mason vs. Ohio - The second of two CAA/MAC matchups and a game just as good as the first. George Mason (19-8, 11-5 CAA) has been an enigma all year. The Patriots winning six of their first seven games including wins over Kansas State, Dayton and South Carolina. Then the Patriots went 4-4 in their next eight including East Carolina’s first win of the season, then later a pasting by Ohio’s conference brethren Kent State, then finally clunkers in conference to last place Georgia State and Delaware. Then the Patriots regained their footing and won eight of their next nine, so much so that they were back in the mix for an NCAA at large berth. Then came a bad loss at ODU followed two games later by a loss on national TV at home to UNCW on a last second shot by TJ Carter, which was mostly likely the final dagger to their at large hopes.
Ohio (17-9, 8-5 MAC) has had a similar road this year. They struggled at the onset losing close games to Holy Cross and Temple in their first four games. They rebounded to win six of their next seven with wins over Maryland and St John’s before a tough loss at St Mary’s (they also were clocked by Kansas). Then the MAC league play started and the Bobcats won six of their first eight and were talked about as a possible at large bid team. Then the Bobcats lost three of their next four games, all the losses on the road before winning their last game over Bowling Green.
Analysis - George Mason plays best when they work it inside to senior forward Will Thomas (16.5 points 10.6 rebounds) who either scores with his solid post moves or kicks the ball out to open shooters Folarin Campbell (15.3 points) , John Vaughan (13.5 points) and the very inconsistent Dre Smith (9.6). For Akron, its all about their big men Leon Williams (15.6 points and 9.9 rebounds) and Jerome Tillman (12.8 points and 7.2 rebounds) but guard Bubba Walther (11.3 points) is a solid contributor.
Akron is third in scoring defense in the MAC which will come in handy against the high scoring Patriots who are third in the CAA in scoring offense. There are two differences that favor the Bobcats in this game. First, Williams and Tillman combined should give Thomas all he can handle in the post. Second, Ohio is undefeated at home at 10-0 while Mason has struggled on the road with a 5-5 record. Combine those two facts and you have Ohio winning at home 65-59.
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