Before I get into the second part of my Bracket Buster analysis and predictions, I wanted to talk about last night’s two games.
First, if the NCAA tournament committee members were watching, they had to be really impressed with Davidson, who downed Winthrop 60-47. Winthrop did a good job of holding Davidson to nearly 20 points under their season average and they really did a great job of shutting down Stephen Curry, holding him to 12 points, nearly 14 under his season average. However, Davidson not only played Winthrop’s style of basketball last night, they did it better. They played great, stifling defense, defense I didn’t know they were capable of. They held Winthrop to 30 percent shooting from the floor. The Wildcats contested every Eagle shot and the Eagles had an incredibly hard time inbounding the ball. And the Wildcats proved that they are not a one man team. Jason Richards had a big game with 21 points and 5 assists, shooting 5 of 11 from three.
Winthrop may not be as good as last year’s sterling team, but they are still first in the Big South and had only lost 2 games in their last 48 home contests until last night. To win impressively in front of a sold out crowd against a team quite possibly making the NCAA tournament for the fourth year in a row, that’s impressive and that should help out Davidson with their at large resume.
In the other game, Utah State really dominated inside and downed UC Santa Barbara 72-59. Again a star guard was held in check by the opponent but the team overcame that. Utah State’s Jaycee Carroll was held to 15 points (7 under his average) on 5 of 13 shooting, but Tai Wesley had 24 points and 9 rebounds while Gary Wilkinson had 14 points and 12 rebounds for the Aggies. The Aggies outrebounded the Gauchos 40-26 and “held” the Gauchos to 33 percent shooting from the floor. I say “held” because often the Gauchos were very impatient and often took very wild low percentage shots. Even when they were good shots, the Gauchos seemed rushed and not set. I was not impressed with Gauchos leading scorer Alex Harris who shot 8 of 23 from the field, often he would take really wild shots. Harris and James Powell each had 20 points. But give credit to the Aggies. With Carroll struggling early, the Aggies worked it inside a lot to Wesley and Wilkinson and really took advantage of their size differential. The Aggies also shot 16 of 21 from the line. If Utah State can continue to work the ball inside, they could be a tough out in the WAC tournament.
Ok now on to the second round of Bracket Buster projections. I will have the final two, Kent State vs St Mary’s and Wright State vs. Illinois State later this morning.
Creighton vs. Oral Roberts - Creighton goes on the road to the meet the Rodney Dangerfields of the Mid Majors, Summit Conference leading Oral Roberts.
The Bluejays (18-9, 9-7 MVC) started off strong going 9-1 with wins over St Joseph’s and DePaul (both games at home). Then conference play started and the Bluejays lost their first two games, then won their next five, then lost their next three, then won their next three, then lost their next two before crushing Missouri State this week at home. Get the picture? Yes, they are a very young team and their play shows that. Senior Dane Watts is one of two senior starters and is the second leading scorer at 11.4 points per game. Freshman P’Allen Stinnett leads the Bluejays at 12 points per game. He is however very inconsistent and prone to fouls. And yes, they have a Korver, freshman Kaleb Korver, who averages a little more than 2 points per game. The Bluejays have 10 players who play 10 minutes or more a game and only 3 of those players are seniors.
Oral Roberts (20-6, 15-1 Summit) has the #46 RPI in the country and has played the likes of Texas, Arkansas, Texas A&M and Utah State. Unfortunately, those were four of their six losses. Still the Golden Eagles are poised to go to their third straight NCAA tournament appearance if they win the Summit tournament championship. Their at large hopes are faint but a win over Creighton wouldn’t hurt. The Golden Eagles are a balanced club, with four players averaging in double figures led by junior guard Robert Jarvis. Unlike the Bluejays, the Golden Eagles are a senior laden club with the three other double digit scorers being seniors; forwards Moses Ehambe and Shawn King and guard Adam Liberty.
Analysis - Both teams average 70 points per game. Creighton is second in the Missouri Valley in Field Goal Percentage at 45.4 percent, fourth in three point shooting at 38 percent and third in assists. The Bluejays are also second in rebounding defense, third in field goal percentage defense at 41.4 percent, and first in steals, averaging over 8 a game. Oral Roberts is first in the Summit in scoring defense, first in field goal percentage defense, first in three point field goal percentage defense and first in blocked shots.
Basically what to look for is a very defensive oriented game, probably in the low 60's. All things considered, Oral Roberts is a more experienced team playing at home. Those two factors will be the difference as the Golden Eagles down the Bluejays 65-60.
Nevada at Southern Illinois - This would have been a marquis matchup last year with Nevada with Ramon Sessions, Nick Fazekas and Marcellus Kemp taking on Randal Falker, Tony Young and Jamal Tatum. Its still a good game this year with two great coaches Mark Cox and Chris Lowery walking the sidelines, but only Kemp and Falker remain for their respective clubs.
Nevada (17-9, 9-4 WAC) started off the season 8-6 but has won 9 of their last 12. However they have not won any non conference game of significance. Kemp has led the way for the Wolfpack averaging 20 points a game. Three other Wolfpack players average double figures including freshman sensation JaVale McGee who averages 13 points 7 rebounds and nearly 3 blocks a game.
Southern Illinois (15-12, 10-6 MVC) won their first three games, including an impressive two wins over Chattanooga and Mississippi State at the Anaheim Classic. Then the Salukis fell on hard times, losing nine of their next thirteen games, despite one of their wins being an impressive home win over St Mary’s. The Salukis though have fought back in conference and have won their last 3 games including handing Drake its first conference loss. The Salukis are led by the trio of Randal Falker, Matt Shaw and Brian Mullins who combine for 35 points, 16 rebounds and nearly 8 assists a game.
Analysis - The Wolfpack average 75 points per game and are fourth in the WAC in field goal percentage and fourth in three point field goal percentage. They are a better defensive team than given credit and are second in field goal percentage defense and first in the WAC in blocks.
As always, the Salukis are about defense. They are second in the MVC in scoring defense, second in field goal percentage defense, first in three point field goal percentage defense. An interesting offensive stat though is the Salukis are second in the MVC in assists.
The Wolfpack’s strength, three point shooting goes up against the Salukis vaunted three point field goal defense. Its going to be a low scoring game as both teams play good defense. The Salukis have the home crowd in Carbondale, which can be so loud, ESPN writer Kyle Whelliston suffered a headache from the crowd noise when he covered a game there this season. The Salukis D and the loud crowd make the difference, SIU wins 61-54.
Drake vs. Butler - This is one of two games that everyone is looking forward to on Bracketbuster Saturday. #8 Butler, the highest ranked mid major in the country vs. #18 Drake, the team that has already clinched first place in the MVC. Bulldogs vs. Bulldogs. Both teams play stifling defense, have excellent ball movement and love shooting the three. I mean really love shooting the three. .
Drake was picked to finish ninth in the preseason in the MVC. What the rest of the Missouri Valley didn’t know was that Drake was its motion offense and take advantage of every opportunity given to them. The Bulldogs are first in the Missouri Valley in scoring offense at 72 points per game, fourth in field goal percentage and in my favorite category, first in free throw shooting percentage. But they are not just an offensive team. The Bulldogs are second in the Missouri Valley in rebounding margin, second in the Missouri Valley in steals and first in the Missouri Valley in turnover margin. The last category to me speaks volumes of Drake. I saw this firsthand watching the game online at Creighton. Every mistake made by the Bluejays was taken advantage of by the Bulldogs and they capitalized on them. The Bluejay announcers were stating how lucky Drake was often during the game. Its not luck, its opportunistic.
Drake is led by guard Josh Young who averages 16 points per game. Leonard Houston adds 14 per game for the Bulldogs. The Bulldogs starting five is rounded out by Jonathan Cox (11 points per game), Kyle Korver (9) - yes there has to be a Korver on the Bulldogs the way they play and Adam Emmencker.
Unlike Drake, Butler had lofty expectations to meet at the beginning of the season. The Bulldogs were ranked in the top 25 and were picked to win the Horizon League. So far, they have met expectations. The Bulldogs have defeated Virginia Tech and Texas Tech on neutral sites, Ohio State, Bradley and Florida State at home and Southern Illinois at Carbondale. The Bulldogs do it with defense as they are first in the Horizon in scoring defense, second in three point field goal percentage defense, second in steals and in that ever so important category, first in turnover margin. Their offense is not bad either as they are third in the Horizon in field goal percentage at 45 percent and of course, they are tied for first in free throw shooting percentage.
These Bulldogs are also a balanced scoring team with four starters in double figures, led by all Horizon League stat machine Mike Green. Green averages 14.7 points per game, 6 rebounds a game, 4.9 assists per game and 1.5 steals per game. AJ Graves, though having a down shooting year shooting only 37 percent a game, averages nearly 14 points per game. Then there is the frontcourt duo of Matt Howard (12.8 points and 5.7 rebounds per game) and Pete Campbell (11 points per game).
Analysis - Its basically Butler vs. Butler Lite. Both teams are so similar in style of play, its scary. Two incredibly opportunistic teams. What will be interesting to see is how Green and Graves play against Young and Houston, two of the more athletic guards Butler has seen all year. The X factor may be the inside game of Matt Howard. I think Drake is going to have a difficult time contending with him.
Drake needs this game in the worst way now after losing two of their last three games, including blow a late nine point lead at home to Bradley. Drake has not beaten a real quality team all year (their best non conference game was a six point loss at St Mary’s). Drake needs this to assure the NCAA tournament committee that they are a legitimate team. A good showing against Butler will help, but a win is really important.
As for Butler, this game is important to them too, but its not dire, as in Drake’s case. But Butler wants to prove to all the bracketologists that they are worthy of a top 4 seed in the tournament. Right now, they are ranked eighth, but most tournament bracket predictions have them as a five seed, which is an insult. The Bulldogs may see this as their only chance to impress the committee.
As I said, I think the difference will be forward Matt Howard. The one thing Drake lacks is an inside presence and Butler has that in Howard. He will keep the Drake defense honest and that may be the difference here. Otherwise, both teams neutralize each other with their defensive styles, though Butler I think will want to keep this in the low sixties because the higher the point total the more it favors Drake. It also helps that Butler is playing at home in the Hinkle Fieldhouse. It will be loud there. Butler will win this game 63-58.
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