It’s great to have college basketball back and its great to be back discussing it. Sorry for the long break. Its been a summer of trying to relocate down south (unsuccessfully) and other changes going on. In a few days, my second son will be born and that will make things even more interesting.
So to get things started, lets do a quick preview of the Colonial Athletic Association. The conference continues its rise in mid major college basketball by having two teams make the NCAA tournament for the second year in a row. Of course we all know it should have been three in 2005-06 (Hofstra should have been in) and could very well have been three in 2006-07 (Drexel received serious consideration). Also for the second year in a row, the conference had four teams win 20 or more games (VCU, Hofstra, ODU and Drexel) and placed two teams again in the NIT (Hofstra and Drexel).
So now the CAA is looking for a three peat and there are two teams George Mason and VCU that might get that done. After that, significant losses in the starting lineups of ODU, Hofstra and Drexel may result in a decline in the overall strength of the conference.
I have never liked preseason previews because despite whatever talent teams bring in, you don’t get a sense of what teams are like until at least a game or two is played by each team. Thus, after a couple of games, I think I am getting an early sense of what’s going on. Here is my preview based on order of finish.
1) George Mason
A year after their magical run, a young Patriots team struggled to find their way during the season and went 9-9 in the CAA, finishing sixth. Then the CAA tournament started and Mason nearly pulled, well, another Mason knocking off #3 seed and eventual NIT bound Hofstra in the second round, stunned #2 eventual NCAA bound Old Dominion in the semifinal round, then nearly beat #1 seed VCU in the finals. The entire starting squad is back led by senior forward Will Thomas and guard Folarin Campbell. Senior Dre Smith picked up his scoring during the second half of the year and along with solid point guard Jordan Carter and power forward Darryl Monroe, the Patriots have the balance to win the league. The questions will be their inconsistent shooting and their bench depth. Former CAA first team rookie of the year Jon Vaughan and Louis Birdsong lead the bench. The key addition may be highly recruited Vlad Moldoveanu, a 6-10 freshman who can shoot the three.
Prognostication - This team was within 2 minutes of winning the CAA tournament before Eric Maynor started a heroic comeback for VCU. This year, the Patriots should be better with Vaughan having a full year healed from his ACL injury and the development of Smith as a scorer. The bench with Birdsong and Moldoveanu should be better. Mason will play very solid defense. The key will be scoring. At times last season, they struggled to get shots off. If they keep the games in the low sixties, they will be fine.
What I have Seen or Read So Far - Well, Mason has won their first two games over Vermont and Cleveland State, holding their opponents to both under 55 points. However, as mentioned, the Patriots have struggled scoring, shooting only 34 and 38 percent respectively in those games. Will Thomas is playing very well and Moldoveanu is getting a lot of playing time and contributing. The question now is how will they play against better opponents. The game at Dayton today will be a good test of that.
Key Player - Jon Vaughan. Vaughan in his freshman year showed flashes of brilliance and looked to be a significant player for the Patriots. He sat out the entire next season due to injury. Last year he struggled to find his game. This year due to injury to Darryl Monroe, Vaughan is starting and scoring, with a game high 18 points vs. Cleveland State. If Vaughan plays to his potential, the Patriots will not struggle as much to score points.
2) VCU
One of the darlings of the NCAA tournament, first year coach Anthony Grant’s Rams pressed their way to the CAA championship and a stunning (but not surprising to this writer who predicted it see - http://garymoore.typepad.com/caa_mens_basketball/2007/03/ncaa_tournament_2.html
win over Duke in the first round of the NCAA tournament before barely losing to Pitt in the second round. VCU lost two of their guards from that team, Jesse Pellot Rosa and B.A. Walker but star point guard Eric Maynor returns along with starting forwards Michael Anderson and Wil Fameni to again make the Rams dangerous. Replacing Pellot Rosa and Walker will be guards Jamal Shuler and TJ Gwynn, who saw significant playing time last year, so the drop off won’t be much. VCU expects significant contributions from freshman guard Joey Rodriguez and freshman forward Lance Kearse.
Prognostication - There are two questions with the Rams. One will be how much depth the Rams have off the bench to continue their up and down the court press style. Shuler and Gwynn were excellent off the bench for the Rams last year but now are starters. Second, the Rams lost their second and third leading scorers, so the Rams will need Anderson and Shuler a deadly outside shooter to balance the scoring load for Eric Maynor.
What I have Seen or Read So Far - VCU is 2-1 so far against some solid competition which includes a first round Puerto Rico Shootout win over Houston by one point and a tough 6 point loss in the semi final round of the shootout to Miami. In the win over Houston, Shuler and Anderson handled the scoring load combining for 38 points while Maynor was held to 6 points on 1 of 12 shooting. However the next night, Shuler and Anderson combined for only 12 points
and Maynor scored 27 in the loss to Miami. It will be interesting to see what pans out for the Rams.
Key Player - Jamal Shuler. Shuler can be a deadly three point shooter and will need to be to give Maynor the scoring help he needs. So far he has been inconsistent, shooting well against Houston and poorly against Miami.
3) Old Dominion
Another team seemingly in transition is the Monarchs. The Monarchs lost three starters from last season, including their three leading scorers, Valdas Vasylius, Arnaud Dahi, and Drew Williamson. The cupboard is not bare though with starting guards Brandon Johnson and Brian Henderson returning along with forwards Gerald Lee and Jonathan Adams thrusted into starting roles. Abdi Lidonde is also now starting as well and will need to provide consistent outside shooting for a team that often runs hot and cold from the three point arc. As per usual, coach Blaine Taylor will run out nine to ten players every game to wear his opponents down. The question is that this year with having to replace three starters with his bench strength, will the new players he has recruited bring the same value off the bench he has in the past. Highly touted seven foot three Sam Harris has never lived up to the billing. Now is his time to.
Prognostication - This team may struggle from the outset due to the fact that they have to find consistent scoring options. The team will look to Gerald Lee to lead the way. If Sam Harris doesn’t play significant minutes and contribute, the team may be weak inside defensively. Also, the team will only go as far as their bench takes them. That’s been the ODU staple.
What I have Seen or Read So Far - ODU has played only one game, a convincing 31 point win over Toledo where nine Monarch players played 14 minutes or more, so it looks like Taylor has a bench again. Sam Harris contributed 9 rebounds in only 17 minutes, a plus and it seems Jonathan Adams will come off the bench and not start, which may be good for ODU. ODU shot 47 percent from the field, also another good sign.
Key Player - Gerald Lee has a great amount of potential coming off a strong second half of this past season. Now is the time for him to take the next step up and become an elite player for the Monarchs.
4) UNC Wilmington - I know this seems to be a stretch considering the Seahawks went 4-14 in conference and only won 7 games overall last year, but hear me out. With three returning starters for last season, plus 2005-06 CAA tournament most valuable player TJ Carter returning from an injury that kept him out of all last season, the Seahawks, sans George Mason, have the most veteran and balanced starting lineup returning. UNCW has Vladmir Kuljanin, Todd Hendley and Daniel Fountain, all who averaged double digit in scoring, returning from last year’s starting five. The key will be who will play point guard. Right now it looks like Chad Tomko is the starting point guard. All Tomko will need to do is to distribute the ball to the other four players.
Coming off the bench will be returning small forward Montez Downey, freshman impact player Dominique Lacy and JUCO point guard Marlo Davis.
Prognostication - Don’t be surprised if this team finishes even higher than fourth. There is a significant amount of talent on this team scoring wise and now bench wise. Vladimir Kuljanin is a load at 6-10 265 pounds and with Hendley, Carter and Fountain, teams will not be able to double team the big fellow down low. The question will be defense, which at times was lacking last year.
What I have Seen or Read So Far - UNCW needed overtime to beat College of Charleston 98-91 but there were several good signs for the Seahawks. The Cougars had no answer for Kuljanin who had 25 points and 18 rebounds. Henley added 18 and 12 rebounds as the Seahawks outrebounded the Cougars 51-40. More impressive was Daniel Fountain’s 27 points, going 6 of 9 from three. Finally Dominique Lacy had 9 points and 5 rebounds in 15 minutes of play, so there is a scoring option off the bench.
Key Player - TJ Carter. As Jon Vaughan has shown, losing a year to significant injury results in a player struggling to return to form. TJ Carter is recovering from significant hernia surgery so his play may be rusty at the beginning of the year. However, unlike Vaughan last year, Carter is starting, so he will see significantly more minutes than Vaughan did, so his return to 2005-06 form may be quicker. Carter will give the Seahawks a significant additional weapon that will make the Seahawks difficult to defend.
5) Drexel - This is the second team that lost a significant amount of its scoring and leadership due to graduation. Bashir Mason, Dominick Mejia and Chaz Crawford all graduated. Thankfully for the Dragons, Frank Elegar returns and he will be needed. Elegar led the Dragons in scoring and was second to Crawford in rebounding. The only other returning starter is Scott Rodgers at guard. Rodgers averaged eight points per game but struggled in shooting and ball handling. The Dragons are counting on sophomore Tramayne Hawthorne to pickup the scoring load. Hawthorne who averaged 7 points off the bench will now be thrust into the scoring guard role vacated by Mejia. The key for Drexel is to find a reliable starting point guard from either freshman Jamie Harris or freshman Gerald Colds. Harris is currently the starter, while Colds seems to be the scoring option off the bench. To replace Crawford, the Dragons will rely on senior Randy Oveneke. If Oveneke is not up to the task, coach Bruiser Flint can rely on either Kenny Tribbett or BC transfer Evan Neisler to pick up the slack in the frontcourt.
Prognostication - Defense, discipline and Elegar are givens with Drexel. The question will be the guard play and second and third scoring options. If the Dragons can get a second and third scoring option from Hawthorne, Rodgers and Colds, then teams won’t be able to rely on double teaming Elegar.
What I have Seen or Read So Far - In its 3 wins, Drexel has found its second and third scoring options in Hawthorne and Colds off the bench. This includes an overtime win over a good Penn team. If this continues, Drexel will be a force to reckon with in the CAA.
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