Mid Major Hoops

Quick Chalk Talk

Its been a very unsurprising NCAA tournament for the most part.  There have only been really three upsets (#11 VCU over #6 Duke, #11 Winthrop over #6 Notre Dame and #7 UNLV over #2 Wisconsin...you could say #6 Vanderbilt over # Washington State was a slight upset) and three #1 seeds and one #2 seed are left in the tournament.   What does this mean?

1) The NCAA did a good job with the seedings for the most part, sans some questionable selections for the last at large teams into the tournament. 

2) Despite a lot of parity in college basketball, the upper echelon teams were truly the upper echelon.  In the Elite Eight, you had all the four #1 seeds (Kansas, Florida, North Carolina and Ohio State), plus three #2 seeds (Memphis, Georgetown and UCLA) and a #3 seed (Oregon). 

3)The overall best teams during the entire season were the best teams in the tournament.  Obviously with the NCAA tournament this is not the case.   Often teams that play well during an entire year have flaws that come out in tournament times or are young teams.  For the most part, the elite eight teams were veteran teams - Florida and UCLA were in the final last year, Georgetown, Oregon and Memphis had veteran leadership, and Kansas and North Carolina had the same starting lineups from last year.  Only Ohio State has a relatively young team..but with Mike Conley Jr and Greg Oden, they have two of the best young players in the country.

This even flowed over to the NIT, where the final four teams left were all #1 seeds.  Of course, playing on your home courts till the NIT Semifinals always helps.

Well, onto the predictions for the final four.   Though everyone talks about the Hibbert-Oden matchup, the big matchup for the Georgetown - Ohio State game is whoever guards Jeff Green vs. Jeff Green.  I really don't see Ivan Harris or Jamar Butler being able to stop Green.  I think Hibbert and Oden will neutralize each other as will the guards Jonathan Wallace and  Jessie Sapp. vs. Mike Conley Jr and Ron Lewis.  Both teams have played some exciting come from behind wins, but I will take the veteran leadership of Georgetown along with the Jeff Green matchup.  Hoyas win 78-71.

Florida vs UCLA - How often do you get a rematch of the championship game from the year before in the final four.  Not often.  This should be a better game than last year as the Bruins have more experience from last year.  They play terrific defense and have solid guard play from Arron Affalo, Josh Shipp and Darren Collison.  They matchup well with Taurean Green, Corey Brewer and Lee Humphrey.  It will be interesting to see if Humphrey will be able to get his 3 point shots off this time.   The key though is how UCLA will try to stop Al Horford and Joakim Noah.  Lorenzo Mata and Luc Richard Mbah a Moute (love that name) have their work cut out for them.  I think Florida will not be as susceptible to the mistakes that a young Kansas team had against the Bruins.  Florida will take care of the ball better but win in a very close game, 70-67.

In the final, Florida matches up really well vs. Georgetown.  I look for Joaquim Noah to give Jeff Green a really difficult time on the floor.  That will be the difference in the Gators winning the championship for the second year in a row, again proving this basketball season, chalk matters.

Review of Second Round Action

Before I talk about the NCAA tournament, Marist, who beat Tony Bozzella's Lady Gaels in overtime in the MAAC championship, stunned Ohio State in the first round.  Right now, Iona are down 3 to Indiana with less than 3 minutes to go in the second round of the WNIT.

As boring as the first round might have been, Saturday’s second round action was down right thrilling.  Three overtime games, one of which was a double overtime game, plus all of the other five games were close, even the North Carolina - Michigan State game was close until about four minutes left.   So once again, it’s time for Hits and Misses.

Saturday Action

Hits – My predictions.  6-2 for the day, with the only losses being Butler and Washington State, both close games. 

Misses – Xavier’s Justin Cage, who led Xavier with 25 points, missed the second of two free throws to allow Ohio State a chance to tie, which Ron Lewis did with his three pointer to force overtime.  Just another example of how free throws matter so much this time of year.

Hit – Georgetown in the second half of their win over BC.  That‘s the Jeff Green and Roy Hibbert that I know and love, as the two of them dominate the Eagles in the last 20 minutes.  If the Hoyas can play like that for a full 40 minutes, they will be in the final four.

Miss – Butler.  I didn’t give this team enough credit and they played their usual methodical style against Maryland, frustrating the Terrapins into 17 turnovers.  Plus A.J Graves led the Bulldogs hitting four of the teams twelve three pointers.

Hit – VCU Rams.   Showed a lot of heart in coming back from nineteen points down in the second half to force overtime before falling to Pitt.   Rams forced 11 of Pitt’s 15 turnovers in the second half.   Didn’t predict them to beat Pitt, but had to root for the CAA team.

Miss – Vanderbilt – Didn’t give them enough credit either. The Commodores showed a lot of heart , coming back thanks to Derrick Byars and his second half shooting as they moved onto the sweet 16.

Sunday Action

Hits – Few and far between, except the Salukis look great.  Still have all my final four teams, but losing Wisconsin and Texas hurt.

Misses – Went 4-4 on predictions, not a good day.  Really missed the boat on Oregon,  who dominated my junkyard dogs Winthrop in the second half.   Wisconsin, for the second straight game, looked terrible against UNLV, but give the unknown Runnin Rebels a lot of credit.  Played a solid game.  Then Texas laid an absolute egg vs. USC.

Hits – Southern Illinois.  Despite not having Matt Shaw due to an ankle injury, Jamal Tatum and Tony Young made up for it, dominating Virginia Tech in their win. 

Miss – Texas.  How bad was that loss?  Bad. Bad. Bad.  USC’s Taj Gibson was great, but Texas shooting 37.5 percent is just not good.  Durant and Abrams went 18-38, the rest of the Longhorns shot 6 of 26 from the field.    Eek.

Hit – Kansas.  The Jayhawks look like the Final Four juggernaut everyone thought they could be.  Southern Illinois smothering defense will provide the ultimate test for the young Jayhawks. 

Miss – UNLV.  Hadn’t seen the Rebels all year and they are very good, sound, and maybe a tad dull.  Not your dad’s Runnin Rebels. 

Review of First Round NCAA Tournament Action

This is the best time of year.  Better than the Christmas break I have, better than New Year’s Day with all the bowl games, Better than Thanksgiving, better than awesome summer weather, or even better than a trip to South Beach and all the beautiful scenery that it offers (and I am not talking about the beach or the palm trees).  What makes it even better is having a snow/ice storm here in New York that resulted in the early closing of Hofstra yesterday, which allowed me to get home in time for my long awaited watching of Notre Dame/Winthrop, which didn’t disappoint.

So after two days of first round action, its time to review what’s happened in HITS or MISSES categories.

Hit – Higher Seeded Teams.   The committee seemingly did a very good job seeding higher teams in the tournament, though I still have disagreements with some of their seeding.   Higher seeds went 13-3 on Thursday, with only #11 VCU, #9 Xavier and # 9 Michigan State winning.  Higher seeds went 14-2 on Friday, with only #9 Purdue and #11 Winthrop winning their games.

Miss – Upsets.   There were only two significant upsets, #6 VCU over #11 Duke and #11 Winthrop over #6 Duke, both of which I predicted.   

Hit – Teams that I didn’t think deserved in lost.   Both Stanford and Illinois who I thought didn’t deserve to be in lost, albeit in different ways.  The Cardinal truly showed they didn’t belong by going out and getting routed by Louisville.  The Cardinal was down at one time 44-16 in the first half.  UGH!   The Fighting Illini gave a much more credible showing against Virginia Tech, outplaying the Hokies for most of the game.  In fact, the Illini had as much as a 13-point lead in the second half.  Then Illinois melted down the stretch as Virginia Tech ended the game on a 12-0 run to win 54-52.

Miss - #12 Seeds – All four #12 seeds lost in the first round of the tournament.  Three of the teams played poorly as Arkansas, ODU, and especially Stanford showed very little to the committee for those selections.  Only Illinois gave a credible showing before faltering at the end.

Hits – My Overall Predictions – I was 13-3 the first day and 12-4 the second day, a 25-7 record overall.  I correctly predicted my two biggest upsets, the VCU upset over Duke and the Winthrop win over Notre Dame, plus my best bet cover, Tennessee romping over Long Beach State, came to fruition (had I known the score total in Vegas for the game was 168, I would have bet the house and I mean the house as in second mortgage on the over).

I hit the nail on the head with VCU.  Their athletic long guards forced Duke into numerous turnovers and the Blue Devils were worn out down physically and mentally at the end of the game from that frenetic VCU press.  Missed free throws, shots that came up short can all be attested to the Rams style of 40 minutes of hell play.  Eric Maynor again was huge down the stretch for the Rams, but all the Rams played well and they shot extremely well from three (9 of 16), which countered the rebounding advantage that Duke had.

Maynor, Jamal Shuler (one of the most underrated sixth men in the country), Jesse Pellot Rosa and B.A. Walker all played phenomenally for the Rams, once again proving guard play is so important in the tournament.

I also was dead on with Winthrop who showed late in the first half, the beginning of the second half and at the end of the game just how good this Eagle team is.  When Winthrop went on that 13-2 run at the end of the first half to go up 32-28 at halftime, I didn’t think this Eagle team could play any better.  I was wrong as Winthrop went on another absolutely awesome 20-6 run to go up 54-34 with 13:15 left.  I didn’t think I saw a team play a better stretch all season long than the 33-8 stretch Winthrop went on over the span of the two halves.

Give Notre Dame credit though for showing a lot of heart and going on their own amazing 29-8 run to actually go ahead 63-62 with 2:21 left.  Winthrop did help out in that as they missed numerous free throws from the line and lost that edge they played with for most of the game, as it seemed the Eagles were playing not to lose.  But Winthrop regained their composure and went on 12-1 run to end the game.  Craig Bradshaw is a terrific big man, fundamentally sound and a devastating threat in the post and shooting from three.  Torrell Martin is equally as good as Bradshaw.  This is going to be a very tough team to beat in the tournament.

Misses – There were several on my part. 

1)    I should have gone with my first impression on ODU and Butler.  I correctly noted that ODU’s guards have struggled and needed to have a big game for ODU to win.  I should have realized Butler’s guards would only highlight that weakness.  The Monarchs’ guard trio of Brandon Johnson, Brian Henderson and Drew Williamson shot an unseemly 7 for 26, including shooting 4 for 20 from three.  Williamson shot 1 of 8 from the field, scoring only 2 points (ODU shot 32 percent from the field for the game).  Butler used a 17-0 run in the second half to pull ahead to stay.

2)    I was wrong on Purdue.  Purdue showed a lot of heart and simply outplayed a lackluster Arizona team.  The Wildcats seemingly were going thru the motions as the Boilermakers out hustled them for loose balls, rebounds, you name it.  Purdue forced 17 turnovers (as opposed to only having 8) as they took advantage of Arizona’s sloppy ballhandling.

3)    I should have followed the stats and not my heart as Vanderbilt absolutely crushed GW 77-44.  Vandy hit 13 three pointers, but it was their defense that held the Colonials to 27 percent from the field including 3 of 14 from the three-point arc.  The Commodores ran out to a 25 point halftime lead and never looked back. 

4)    Arkansas laid an egg against USC.  The Razorbacks were up 9-4 early but USC dominated them the rest of the game, going up 12 at halftime on their way to an easy 77-60 win for the Trojans.

HIT - The bright side is that none of the four teams that I had winning their first round games (but lost) I had going past the second round.  In fact of the seven games that I had incorrectly predicted, none of those teams I had going past the second round (ODU, Arizona, GW, Arkansas, Georgia Tech, Gonzaga and Villanova)

The upsets usually start coming in the second round, so the next two days should prove to be quite interesting.   As I said, there is no better time of year.  This is Christmas, New Year’s, my birthday and a South Beach trip, all rolled up into one.   Now if only Salma Hayek would become a contributor to this blog…sigh. ☺

Quick Thoughts on Reader Comments

I wanted to first apologize to the two blog readers for their comments.  First, I want to thank you for the comments.  i really appreciate it.   I didn't even realize I had got a couple of comments.  Normally typepad e-mails me the comments.  So let me get too them

First comment was by Jerome

"i disagree with what you said about the committee making a statement about syracuse playing non-conference home games. if they were, then why didn't the chairman say that. he never mentioned it as a factor. he mentioned a couple of other things that made no sense, but he never said that.

besides that, these committee members are well aware that syracuse puts fannies in the seats. they are at the top or nearly at the top at making money on home games. that makes an excellent pay day for schools who never make a dime on their athletic programs. the players love it, it is the biggest crowd they will ever play in front of their entire career, plus they get on tv or radio. it is well known that other big east schools, and the mid-majors syracuse traditionally plays, use the fact that they will play at the carrier dome as an incentive for recruiting. the committee is never going to make that statement because they will only be hurting all the teams that want to play there.

besides that, why don't you do a side by side comparison of syracuse's schedule with other schools on their level. syracuse gets a lot of attention because they receive an inordinate amount of publicity, but all schools do it.

also you should double check your facts regarding syracuse's schedule because there are errors there."

Jerome, first thanks for the comments.  First, I would have had Syracuse in the tournament long before Stanford, Arkansas, Illinois  and perhaps ODU.   As we know, no bracket prognosticator, including me had Syracuse out of the tournament, especially with a 11-7 Big East conference record. 

However, I stand by my comments though, because several other college basketball analysts stated the same thing about Syracuse's non-conference road schedule.  Despite whatever the committee chairman said, Syracuse's non conference record and schedule had to be the most determining factor in their exclusion from the tournament (the 3-7 record vs top 50 RPI teams might have also been a factor).  Their non conference RPI was 122, which is very weak.  Their only neutral site non conference game was a loss to Oklahoma State in the Jimmy V Classic.

Also, the committee should not decide who to put in based on which teams "put fannies in the seats".  Its who the 34 best at large teams are.  The committee decided Syracause wasn't one of them.  I never had Syracuse as a bubble team, so I disagree with their decision to leave them out.  Syracuse belonged in, so you and a lot of other Orange fans should be upset, and even more so after all the #12 seeds lost in the first round of the tournament.

That being said though, the committee had enough stats to go by their decision to leave the Cuse out.  Also, I checked my facts, and all of them are correct, including Syracuse's 3-5 record vs Big East teams that made the tournament.

The next comment came from Bruce Adams.

"Any comments or rationale why Akron did not get picked for NIT with a 26-9 record, but Toledo, same MAC, but Western Div, got in w/ a pathetic 19 wins (1 more than my more than pathetic Miami SkinHawks with 18 wins, but...banked 3s!) We guessed that Akron didn't get in due to their coach's whining, nay-saying, bitching and moaning and blame-throwing post their defeat to Miami."

Bruce, I am sorry I didn't comment on Akron's exclusion from the NIT.  I don't know if the MAC had a deal similar to the MAAC in that the NIT guaranteed a spot to the team with the best regular season conference record, which explains Marist's inclusion in the NIT (which they justified with their first round road win over Oklahoma State).  If that's the case, Toledo was the #1 seed in the MAC conference tournament with a 14-2 conference record (as opposed to Akron's 13-3 record).  If that wasn't the criteria, then you are right, there was very little reason to take Toledo over Akron.  None.  Akron had a RPI of 68 as opposed to Toledo's 94.  The Zips also had wins over Niagara, Oral Roberts and Austin Peay, all NCAA tournament teams, plus a respectable two point loss to Nevada. 

What might have hurt Akron was their loss at Toledo in the only game the two teams played.  Also had they not stumbled to UALR in the College Basketball Experience Classic, the Zips would have played Texas Tech in the next round (and potentially Marquette in the championship). 

There were several teams excluded from the NIT that I thought deserved in as well such as Bucknell or Washington, but Akron definitely had the most to gripe about.  Its just another example of CM Newton and friends picking the good ole boys from Georgia and Alabama, two of the lower seeds in the SEC tournament before Akron. 

Lady Gaels Win First Ever Postseason Game

My friends and I were at Iona, where my friend, Tony Bozzella, was coaching Iona in their first ever-postseason game, a Women’s NIT first round game against LIU Brooklyn, his former team, the regular season NEC champion.   It was an emotional game for Coach Bozzella, who wanted to win this game very badly for his own reasons. 

It was a very entertaining though intense first half, as both teams shot the lights out as Iona went out to a 46-41 halftime lead despite LIU Brooklyn shooting 78 percent from the field, including 6 of 6 from the three point arc.  Iona shot 58 percent from the field from the first half due to 11 more attempts as the taller Gaels outrebounded the Blackbirds 34-21 in the game.  MAAC Player of the Year, Martina Weber had 16 first half points for the Gaels.  At the start of the second half, Coach Bozzella glanced up at us in the crowd, rolled his eyes and gave a deep sigh, as if he knew what was about to happen. 

The Blackbirds proceeded to start the second half on a 11-0 run as NEC Freshman of the Year Valerie Nainima came out on fire as LIU went up 52-46, then extended the lead to 68-56 with 10:57 left as the Blackbirds hit their first three point shots (which made it 9 for 9 at the time for them).   Then Tiara Headen, who scored all 15 of her points in the second half, and Weber led the Gaels back, as Coach Bozzella switched to a press that wore the smaller Blackbirds down.  The Gaels tied it at 73 with 5:47 left on a Thazina Cook layup. 

Then, the most critical play in the game occurred.  As LIU’s Mikaelar Whippy went in for a layup, she made contact with Martina Weber and a foul was called.  It seemed Weber did not have position and had committed a blocking foul, which would have been her fourth foul.  However the referee called it an offensive foul and Iona gained possession.  The Gaels would take the lead 75-73 on a layup by Weber but the Blackbirds would regain the lead on Nainima’s last three pointer of the game.  The Gaels would then go on a 11-1 run to end the game, winning 91-79 and Iona had its first ever postseason in their first postseason game. 

Weber led the Gaels with 27 points including 11 of 12 from the line.  Headen had her 15 second half points on 6 of 8 shooting, while Lauren DeFalco and Toni Horvath added 14 and 13 points respectively.  Nainima had 30 points to lead all scorers on 10 of 15 from the field, including 6 of 6 from the three point arc (the Blackbirds ended 10-14 from three).  With the win, the Gaels travel to Bloomington to take on Indiana on Sunday.

NCAA Tournament Predictions Part III

Sorry for the lack of analysis that I wanted to do on this last part of my predictions, but my 19 month old son was up a couple of times during the night and daddy consoled him as opposed to thinking about how the Salukis could make a run to the Elite Eight. :-)

West Region

First Round

Kansas over Niagara – Niagara’s up and down style play falls right Kansas’ style of play.  Similar thought to Tennessee/Long Beach State.  Chalmers, Wright and company will relish playing this style.

Villanova over Kentucky – In the battle of the Wildcats, Sumpter and Reynolds will be too much to handle for the inconsistent Bluegrass Wildcats.  The absolutely absurd fire Tubby Smith clamor will unfortunately only grow more after this loss,

Virginia Tech over Illinois – Who to pick…an up and down inconsistent talented team or the team that didn’t win any significant non conference games.  Um, I’ll choose the former.

Southern Illinois over Holy Cross – Love those scrappy Crusaders.  Unfortunately for them, the Salukis are just as scrappy and a lot more talented.

VCU over Duke – Lets see, what teams give the Blue Devils trouble.  Athletic teams that love to play an up and down, full court press style, that have excellent guard play (See Maryland).  Geez, that’s VCU in a nutshell.  There is a reason why Duke went 8-8 in conference and the world will get to see that when the Rams take down the once mighty Blue Devils.

Pitt over Wright State – Aaron Gray, meet Dashaun Wood.  This game will be a lot closer than people thinks, thanks to one of the most fundamentally sound coaches in the game today in Brad Brownell.

Gonzaga over Indiana – Even without Josh Heyfeldt, the veteran Zags will overcome a young turnover prone Hoosier club.

UCLA over Weber State – The boys at Weber State meet the wrath of a Bruin team that was knocked out early in the PAC 10 tournament.  This will be ugly.

Second Round

Kansas over Villanova (a lot of people are predicting a Nova upset here.  Not sure if this will even be the Jayhawks toughest test)
Southern Illinois over Virginia Tech – Dowdell and friends run into the best defense they have seen all year. 
Pitt over VCU – Pitt’s solid frontcourt will be too much for VCU’s lack of size.
UCLA over Gonzaga – Zags will show heart, but enough talent in the end spells their doom.

Sweet Sixteen
Kansas over Southern Illinois – This I think will be the Jayhawks toughest test. It will be interesting to see how the Salukis will frustrate the Jayhawks on defense and if the young Jayhawk team can overcome it. It will be very very close.

UCLA over Pitt – The master defeats the protégé.

West Regional Final

Kansas over UCLA - Bill Self finally gets the monkey and the Jayhawk fans off his back.

NCAA Tournament Predictions Part II

Part II

Midwest Regional

Florida over Jackson State – Duh!

Arizona over Purdue – The Boilermakers shouldn’t be in the tournament and the Wildcats will prove that.

ODU over Butler – This all depends on how the ODU guards, Drew Williamson, Brandon Johnson and Brian Henderson play.  They certainly can defend as Williamson and Johnson were all CAA first team defensive players, so AJ Graves and Mike Green will have their work cut out for them.  The question will be if Williamson, Johnson and Henderson can score.  In the CAA tournament, outside of Henderson’s terrific shooting vs. Towson, the Monarchs trio struggled, especially against George Mason in the quarterfinals.   The Monarchs have the edge in the frontcourt, so I like Old Dominion to knock off a struggling Butler team as the Monarchs Trio will finally play a good offensive game.

Maryland over Davidson, but not by much.   I love Stephen Curry and the Wildcats. They are a young team that you will hear about over the next couple of years.  However, the Terrapins are playing very well and with a veteran team of DJ Strawberry, Mike Jones and Ekene Ibewke, Maryland will get by and take on the Monarchs.

Winthrop over Notre Dame.  What a terrific game this should be as Colin Falls, Russell Carter and Rob Kurz lead five double digit scorers against the Eagle Trio of Michael Jenkins, Torrell Martin and Craig Bradshaw.   What Notre Dame won’t realize they are in for is how good Winthrop rebounds.  I like Winthrop to defeat the Irish, then knock off Oregon in the second round.

Oregon over Miami Ohio.  No three point miracle bank shots will save Miami Ohio against the Ducks.  The Ducks are too good.  Aaron Brooks and Bryce Taylor lead five double digit scorers and they love to shoot the three.

Georgia Tech over UNLV.  UNLV gets no love and gets an underdeserving 7 seed and faces a very young but very tough Georgia Tech team.  The Rebels are a senior laden team, one that defeated Nevada at Nevada, but no one would confuse them with the running Rebels as their guards Wink Adams and Kevin Krueger (coach Lon Krueger’s son) leading a balanced attack.  The Yellow Jackets are 8-8 vs. Top 50 teams and with Javaris Krittendon and Thaddeus Young, the Georgia Tech defense can be overwhelming.  The question will be how UNLV’s senior guards handle the pressure of Tech.  My guess is that it will be too much.

Wisconsin over Texas A&M – Despite the Big Ten championship game loss, the Badgers with Alando Tucker and Kammron Taylor are battle tested and ready to go for a deep tournament run.    Look for a rematch of Winthrop and Wisconsin in the Sweet Sixteen.

Second Round
Florida over Arizona
Maryland over ODU
Winthrop over Oregon
Wisconsin over Georgia Tech

Sweet 16
Florida over Maryland
Wisconsin over Winthrop

Midwest Regional Final
Florida over Wisconsin.

The final part, the West Region will be early tomorrow morning.

NCAA Tournament Predictions Part I

NCAA Tournament Predictions - Part I - East and South Regions.  I am working on the Midwest and West Regions and hope to have them up tonight.  I'll try to flesh out more of my predictions in the next few hours.

First Round

East Region

North Carolina over Eastern Kentucky.  The Colonels played Kentucky relatively close losing by 13, but was crushed by Ohio State by 29 points.   It will be closer to the latter for the Colonels against the Tar Heels.

Michigan State over Marquette.  Without second leading scorer Jerel McNeal, the Golden Eagles, who only are only eight deep, will need to find additional scoring help for Dominic James and Wesley Matthews.  The problem is that the front court is lacking and that weakness will be exploited by Spartans’ forwards Raymar Morgan and Goran Suton. Throw in Drew Neitzel and the Spartans will be too much for a weakened Golden Eagles’ squad.

Arkansas over USC.  The Razorbacks were one of the last teams in the tournament but they do have some respectable wins over Southern Illinois, West Virginia, Marist and two wins over Vanderbilt.  They won five straight games before losing to Florida in the championship game.  USC struggled down the stretch going 3-4 before winning two games in the PAC 10 Tournament before being slammed by Oregon in the championship game.  Both teams go nine deep so depth is not a question. The question will be how USC handles Arkansas’ height and athleticism.  My guess is that Arkansas will be too much for the young USC team on the boards. 

Texas over New Mexico State – Too much Durant, Abrams and Augustin for the Aggies whose only significant non conference game was 102-87 shellacking by Arizona.  The Aggies have struggled all year on the road and playing a road tested Longhorns team makes for a long night for New Mexico.

George Washington over Vanderbilt – The first upset on my list of predictions.  The Commodores have struggled on the road and on neutral courts going 5-8.  Meanwhile GW has a decent 10-7 record.  The Colonials are only 1-3 vs Top 50 RPI teams while The Commodores are 5-5 vs Top 50 teams, however four of those wins were at home.   It all depends on how Vanderbilt plays defense.  GW’s guards match up well vs. Vandy and I see the Colonials moving on to the second round.

Washington State over Oral Roberts.  The Cougars have an impressive 13-5 record on road/neutral sites, winning 25 games overall.  Truly impressive for a team picked last in the PAC 10 at the beginning of the year.  The Golden Eagles have their signature win over #1 Midwest seed Kansas, but have also played Georgetown, BYU, and Arkansas (all losses by no more than 15 points).   This game will be closer than thought but the Cougars move on and will go to the sweet sixteen.

Boston College over Texas Tech.  Jared Dudley, Tyrese Rice, Sean Marshall and Sean Williams will be too much for Jared Jackson and the Red Raiders in what should be an entertaining game.  The Eagles have played in a tougher conference and that will be the difference.

Georgetown over Belmont.  Jeff Green and Roy Hibbert are going to be dominant in the East Region, mark my words.  Belmont will be the first of many victims.

Second Round
North Carolina over Michigan State
Texas over Arkansas
Washington State over GW
Georgetown over BC

Sweet 16
Texas over NC
Georgetown over Wash State

East Regional Final
Georgetown over Texas

South Region

Ohio State over C. Conn State – Oden, Conley – Enough Said.

Xavier over BYU – The Musketeers have played a good non conference schedule

Tennessee over Long Beach State –Its never a good thing when two teams that play similar styles face each other when one team has superior athletes.  Long Beach State got too a high seed, but their reward is playing a team that plays a very similar style.  Look for the Volunteers to roll

Virginia over Albany – Love the Great Danes’ Jamar Wilson, but the Cavaliers will be too much for Albany.

Louisville over Stanford – Somebody please explain to me how the Cardinals as a #6 seed got potentially two home games.  The Cardinals face the Cardinal, one of the last teams that got into the tournament.  Stanford struggles on the road and this truly is a road game with Lexington being not even 90 minutes away from the Louisville campus.  The Cardinals are playing well and

Texas A&M over Penn – Acie Law will be too much for the Quakers.

Nevada over Creighton – This is probably the most difficult game to pick in the tournament.  This will be the best first round game in the South region as Nick Fazekas and Marcellus Kemp face Anthony Tolliver and Nate Funk.  The question will be whether Kyle Shiloh will be healthy enough for the Wolf Pack.  I think he will be and despite Nevada’s soft non conference schedule, the Wolf Pack will edge the Blue Jays and go onto the second round. 

Memphis over North Texas -  The Tigers will not be tested in this game but they will be in the next round

Second Round

Ohio State over Xavier
Tenn over Virginia
Texas A&M over Louisville (though I wouldn’t be surprised if the Cardinals won)
Nevada over Memphis

Sweet 16
Ohio State over Tennessee
Texas A&M over Nevada

South Regional Final
Ohio State over Texas A&M

Quick NIT Thoughts

Just some quick NIT thoughts.

I love Bradley tonight against Providence (if you are betting, the line is Bradley by six points..give the points).  Providence has been horrible on the road this season and also has a 2-8 record vs. Top 50 RPI teams, which Bradley is.  DePaul, which finished with a higher record than Providence,  went to Bradley early in the season and lost by 20 points....Bradley wins by 10 at least..

I also like Appalachian State tonight against Mississippi tonight.  The toughest non conference team that Mississippi played at home was Tennessee Tech, and they won that by only 9 (they also only beat New Orleans by 8).  The Rebel's'  non conference losses were at UConn by 18, at Memphis by 12 and at St Louis by 3.  As stated here before, Appalachian State has won at Wichita State, at VCU, won at the San Juan Shootout vs Virginia and Vanderbilt (which Ole Miss lost to by five) and at Davidson.

How about Marist last night outrebounding a taller more athletic Oklahoma State by a 32-25 margin, enroute to a 67-64 upset over the Cowboys at Oklahoma State's home court. Wil Whittington led the Red Foxes with 31 points.  The Cowboys outshot the Red Foxes 44 percent to 36 percent, but Marist had 10 more attempts from the field and shot 10 of 28 from the three point line.

I'll be back later with my NCAA predictions.

Drexel Stubs Their Toe and Niagara Moves On

Past history has shown teams that were seemingly snubbed by the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee often lay an egg in the first round of the NIT.  A few years ago, a Notre Dame team that thought they should have made the tournament stubbed their toes at home losing to Holy Cross in the first round of the NIT.  Last year, Maryland's Gary Williams squawked about not making the NCAA tournament stating "We'll play Missouri State three times at a neutral site any day".  Then Maryland, the #1 seed in the NIT East region went out and lost to Manhattan at home.   

Tonight, a third victim was claimed, as Drexel playing at home in the DAC (which included a lot of NCAA Snub themed signs), squandered an early 15-4 lead  and lost to NC State 73-66.  Again, it was an all too often common theme this year in college basketball as It was free throw shooting that killed the Dragons.  Despite scoring a game high 24 points on 10 of 12 shooting from the field, Frank Elegar missed eight of twelve from the free throw line.  This included two missed free throws with 2:30 left with the score tied at 54.  NC State pulled ahead on a Ben McCauley free throw and never trailed the rest of the way. 

NC State shot 50 percent from the field for the game.  Drexel made seven of their first nine shots, but shot only 15 of 44 the rest of the way as the Dragons lost at home for the fourth time this season (the other three in conference during the season - Hofstra, ODU, and VCU).  Drexel may have blown a second chance to have another home game as Marist is currently stunning Oklahoma State 50-35 on the Cowboys home court with 14 minutes left in the game.