Big South Update – Winthrop got a lot of help tonight as second seeded High Point was upset by sixth seeded VMI. Winthrop though struggling in the first half, pulled away from UNC Asheville in the second half winning by 19 and getting the home game final vs. VMI.
CAA Tournament Preview
I have been waiting all week for tomorrow. That’s when I, along with two friends of mine, take an 8:00 am flight down to Richmond (weather permitting) to start my fifth consecutive year attending the CAA tournament. Normally, we drive down, but we decided this year to fly, then rent a car. There really is nothing better than attending a conference college basketball tournament. Four games Friday, four games Saturday, semis Sunday afternoon/evening and the finals Monday night. Yes, it looks like for the first time, I will be at the CAA finals Monday night. Our flight back to New York is Tuesday morning.
I’ve watched the CAA very closely this year (since this web site features the CAA that would make sense) and early on in the CAA conference season schedule, I was very concerned that the CAA would be a one bid league this year, with only the bid coming from the conference tournament winner. Hofstra (as predicted) struggled with their frontcourt early, lost their first three games to sub .500 Charlotte, sub .500 Manhattan and mediocre Hawaii, which downgraded their at large bid status early on. ODU after a strong start, which included a win over Georgetown, went 3-3 in their first six games in conference and stood 12-7 overall. VCU started off strong at 15-3 but with losses at home to Applachian State along with losses to Xavier and Toledo at the time had no signature win Only Drexel, after strong wins over Villanova and Syracuse on the road, stood at 14-4 with a realistic shot of an at large. The team that had the college basketball world turned upside down last year, final four member George Mason, struggled from the outset and it became a season long frustration as the Patriots stumbled to a 9-9 sixth place conference finish and a 15-14 record overall.
As the season progressed, VCU became the team to beat in the conference, winning their first eleven games in conference. Hofstra would look strong for a four or five game stretch beating the likes of ODU and Drexel, but then lose to Northeastern, another four or five game stretch, then a loss to Delaware which was probably the death knell for their at large bid hopes. Then just to frustrate their fans even more, Hofstra followed up their loss to the Blue Hens with their best performance of the year, an eleven point win over VCU to end the Rams eleven game conference winning streak.
As the season ended though, two teams re-emerged for at large bid status. ODU would go on an eleven game winning streak, which it still holds today, to finish 15-3 in conference, 23-7 overall and a RPI of 36. It included wins over Hofstra, VCU, Drexel, and a road bracket buster win over Toledo. Drexel though slumping to fourth in the conference, resurrected itself with come behind wins over Hofstra and on the road at Creighton in a big Bracket Buster win to finish 22-7 and 13-5 in conference with a RPI of 44. The road win has been Drexel’s bread and butter, as their 12 road wins is the best in the NCAA and definitely a category the NCAA selection committee looks at. VCU continued on and finished 16-2 in conference and 24-6 overall though its RPI is not that strong at 62. Hofstra finished third in the conference with a 14-4 record and 22-8 overall (RPI 66), to give the CAA four teams with 20 or more wins for the second year in a row.
So now starts the second season, with the potential of four teams with RPIs between 36 and 66 fighting it out in the semis and finals. Lets look at the top four teams, then the matchups in the first round and a prediction for the tournament outcome.
VCU – The Rams were consistently the best team in the conference this season, going 16-2. However, the Rams lack of a non conference signature win, a convincing loss at home to Bradley in their Bracket Buster game, plus a shaky RPI of 62 puts the Rams clearly on the hot seat. VCU must win the conference tournament to get a bid, otherwise it’s the NIT for the Rams. The Rams must continue to get solid play from their three guards, Eric Maynor, BA Walker, and Jesse Pellot Rosa Also for the Rams to be successful, they must get some rebounding from center Wil Fameni and forward Michael Anderson.
Key Player – Eric Maynor. Maynor must continue his solid play for he is their best guard on the outside as well as the dribble. If Maynor is not on his game, the Rams are in serious trouble.
Key Weakness – Frontcourt. The Rams don’t have the inside presence necessary to counter teams like ODU and Drexel. The Rams beat Drexel at Drexel during the season, but the Dragons were minus Frank Elegar due to a suspension for a flagrant foul.
ODU – The Monarchs are the hottest team in the CAA with the aforementioned eleven wins. The reason for their success is their recent balance with guards Drew Williamson, Brian Henderson, and Brandon Johnson picking up their share of the scoring. Along with solid forwards Valdus Vasylius and Arnaud Dahi, the Monarchs are on the radar of many bracket experts with ODU at the moment picked as an at large team. The Monarchs are 4-2 vs the other top three teams in the CAA, including a two game sweep of the Dragons.
Their RPI of 36, the signature road win over a now very hot Georgetown has ODU in good standing. However, should ODU lose in the CAA semis, they very well may be left out in the cold.
Key Player – Drew Williamson. Williamson must be a solid second scoring option for the Monarchs to be successful. Teams will double team Vasylius thus leaving Williamson among others to be open for three point looks. If Williamson struggles as he did in games vs. Hofstra and JMU, the Monarchs could look at an early exit.
Hofstra – The preseason CAA favorite didn’t quite live up to the hype given to it by the national press, but still 22-8 is nothing to sneeze at. The Pride lives and dies by their three guards, Loren Stokes, Antoine Agudio and Carlos Rivera average a combined 54 points a game, the best of any guard trio in the country. Stokes, the CAA player of the year, along with fellow CAA First Teamer Agudio are the only two teammates in the country that score 20 points a game. Rivera has been extremely hot lately, scoring a career high 37 vs. JMU. No team, not even VCU can cover these three guards. In wins over ODU and VCU, the Pride’s guards dominate the game. The Pride though suffers due to a very weak frontcourt. Zygis Sestokas, really a four guard, can shoot the three, but looks lost on defense. Chris Gadley has at times looked very good and at other times, completely out of it. Mike Davis Sabb is often in foul trouble and Arminas Urbutis though a hard worker, simply doesn’t have the physical strength to bang with larger forwards. Also, Hofstra struggles at times with their free throw shooting. Still they are a dangerous threat having a 3-2 record vs the other top 3 teams in the CAA.
Key Player – Frontcourt. Fraility thy name is the Hofstra frontcourt. Simply put, Gadley, Davis Sabb, and Urbutis must give a consistent performance in the tournament to give the Pride any chance of winning the tournament. They don’t have to score a lot, just play good inside defense and rebound, The guards will do the rest.
Drexel – The Dragons are the wild card of this tournament. The Dragons can look brilliant at times, as they have in wins over Villanova and Syracuse and at other times awful such as losses to Rider and William and Mary. The Dragons, though they play physical defense, often do not shoot the ball well and that tends to lead to low scoring slugfests. Drexel is a senior laden team led by Bashir Mason, Dominick Mejia, and Frank Elegar. Elegar leads the Dragons in scoring and when on, opens up the outside game for Mejia. The Dragons lead the CAA in blocks thanks to Chaz Crawford who averages 3.4 blocks per game. The Dragons have the most signature wins of any CAA team, with road victories over Syracuse, Villanova and Creighton, all of which should make the NCAA tournament. The bad for Drexel is their 1-4 record vs the other top 3 CAA teams with their only win an overtime come from behind win vs. Hofstra.
Key Player – Frank Elegar. As their leading scorer goes, so goes the Dragons. If Elegar gets in foul trouble early, the Dragons will struggle. Their offense is predicated on inside play then the kickout to Mejia and Mason.
Key Weakness – Outside shooting. If Elegar is on the bench, the Dragons will struggle. Dominick Mejia must hit the open shot when given. The Dragons will always be in the games with their defense.
First Round Matchups
#6 George Mason vs. #11 James Madison – The Patriots stil have veterans such as Gabe Norwood, Folarin Campbell and Will Thomas and they lead the CAA in scoring defense. The problem is that they struggle on offense, with George Mason 10th in the CAA in scoring offense.
Prediction - JMU should not be a problem as the Patriots won both games against the Dukes by 18 and 21 points respectively. The Patriots will get a second chance at Hofstra in the quarterfinals. The Pride won the first game 68-60 in Fairfax.
#7 Towson vs. #10 UNC Wilmington – The Tigers will try to ride Gary Neal as far as they can. The CAA leading scorer is a likely NBA first round draft pick. However the First Team all CAA player has little support in his teammates as the Tigers finished 8-10 in the conference. As for the defending CAA champions, the Seahawks suffered through a rough year as they limped to a 4-14 record. The loss of star guard TJ Carter for the entire season resulted in the Teal trying to find consistent guard play to team with their solid frontcourt of Todd Hendley and Vladimir Kujanin.
Prediction – The Seahawks could well pull off an upset but that all depends on how Dennard Abraham plays for Towson. In their only matchup vs the Seahawks, Abraham scored 20 points to lead the Tigers to a 75-61 victory. My guess is that Abraham doesn’t play as well this time and Kuljanin and Hendley lead the Seahawks to an upset victory.
#8 William and Mary vs. #9 Georgia State – The Tribe were one of the more pleasant surprises of the CAA, finishing 8-10 in the conference. The Tribe are a young team with only one senior starter in guard Adam Payton. They shuttle 9-10 guys in often during a game. They take on a Georgia State team that has talent but very little discipline. Senior Lance Perique and junior Leonard Mendez lead the Panthers
Prediction – The Tribe downed the Panthers 81-65 in their only meeting and there is nothing that shows me that the Panthers can return the favor. The Tribe move on to face VCU.
#5 Northeastern vs. #12 Delaware - Herb Courtney was jobbed out of a First Team All CAA player, but he is definitely by far the best forward in the CAA. However, he has zero help in the rest of his Blue hens. The Huskies rebounded nicely from a 4-8 start to win five out of their last six to finish at .500. The Huskies are a veteran team with Bobby Kelly, Adrian Martinez and Bennett Davis. Throw in CAA Rookie of the Year in Matt Janning and the Huskies can give any team fits.
Prediction – Huskies are just too strong for the Blue Hens, having swept the season series. Another win for Northeastern.
Quarterfinals - Hofstra’s guards will be too much for the inconsistent Patriots who do not match up well with Hofstra. But again it will be a slugfest. ODU wil be too much for UNC Wilmington. Likewise VCU for William and Mary. The most interesting game will be Drexel vs . Northeastern. Drexel will prevail.
Semis – Though I predicted in the beginning of the season, a Hofstra – Drexel final, the Hofstra frontcourt has not been consistent enough to handle a team with inside play like ODU. Hofstra has no answer for Vasylius who has scored at will against them. Their only hope is to limit the rest of ODU’s players. It will be close but the Monarchs will prevail.
VCU will play the Dragons with Elegar this time. That will be the difference as Drexel’s frontcourt will dominate the Rams. The Rams only hope is that their press will force the Dragons into numerous turnovers. However Mason and Mejia are too good to let VCU dictate the game.
Finals – This pits two potential at large teams with excellent front courts against each other. The Monarchs size up well against the Dragons and their depth will come into play in the tournament final as the Dragons bench does not match up with ODU. The Monarchs will go into the tournament while Drexel will nervously await their fate on Selection Sunday.
Comments