This is the never ending saga of the Bracket Buster Previews. I have done three so far, covering eight games. Still another four to write about. Geez.
ESPN360
8:00 PM
Cal State Fullerton vs Wright State
The second place Big West Titans (18-6, 8-4 Big West) take on perhaps the most surprising mid major this year, the Wright State Raiders (20-8,12-2 Horizon) who have won 10 of their last 11 games, including an impressive 68-55 win over #12 Butler. The Titans are coming off a home loss to first place Long Beach State.
The Titans sport an unseemly RPI of 139 and a SOS, of get this, 321. Their only non conference game against a signature opponent was a 24 point blowout at UCLA. The Titans who average 78 points and 47 percent from the field per game are led by guard Bobby Brown who leads five scorers in double figures at 20 points per game (Scott Cutley -16.4, Frank Robinson 12.4, Marcus Crenshaw 11.3 and Justin Burns 11.0 are the four other double digit scorers). The Titans score a lot, but give up a lot, 75 points per game which is next to last in the Big West. The Titans are an excellent rebounding team, averaging 39 rebounds a game which leads the Big West.
Wright State is led by senior guard DaShaun Wood who averages 19.6 points per game. He is the only Raider who scores in double figures but the other scorers average between 7.7 and 9.4 points per game as nine players average 12.4 minutes or more per game. Wright State is second in field goal percentage in the Horizon at 44.4 percent per game. More importantly, the Raiders are second in the Horizon in field goal percentage defense at 41.5 percent and second in three point field goal percentage defense at 32.7 percent.
Prediction – Coach Brad Brownell’s teams at UNC Wilmington were always fundamentally sound, defense oriented, ball movement oriented teams. Now he has brought his philosophy to Wright State with terrific results. His methodical style of offense and defense should frustrate Cal State Fullerton and keep the Titans high octane offense in the sixties. The only concern will be keeping the Titans off the boards. But the Raiders should prevail 67-61.
8:00 PM
ESPN2
Bradley vs VCU
In the first Missouri Valley vs Colonial Bracket Buster showdown, the Braves (18-10,9-7 MVC RPI 41) travels to Richmond to take on the CAA leading Rams (22-5,14-2 CAA RPI 45) in the always loud Alltel center.
The Braves are led by their three guard offense of Will Franklin, Jeremy Crouch and Daniel Ruffin, who combine for 43 points and 11 assists per game. Throw in center Zach Andrews (11.5 points per game) and its no wonder that the Braves lead the MVC in scoring at 76 points per game and in three point field goal percentage at 42.9 percent a game from the three point arc. However, the Braves are second to last in the usually defensive oriented MVC at 71 points per game allowed and second to last in field goal percentage defense at 46 percent. The most telling stat may be that Bradley is both last in rebounding offense and rebounding defense as the Braves are outrebounded an average of 7 rebounds a game. Bradley is also a disappointing 1-7 vs. Top 50 RPI teams (sole win vs Depaul, losses to Illinois, Michigan State, Missouri State twice, Creighton twice and Southern Illinois), which NCAA committee members will look at when judging a potential at large team
VCU is led by their three guard oriented offense of Eric Maynor, B.A Walker and Jesse Pellot Rosa who combine for nearly 43 points (42.9) and 9.7 assists per game. The Rams are second in the CAA in field goal percentage (45.5) and first in three point field goal percentage (39.9). The Rams love to press on defense as noted by their their ranking of third in the CAA in steals and first in the CAA in turnover margin (+5.33, ODU is a distant second with +2.07). The Rams have played only one other Top 50 RPI team (loss to Xavier). The Rams are 4-4 vs Top 100 RPI teams (losses to Xavier, Applachian State, Hofstra and ODU, wins vs ODU, Drexel, Albany and Houston).
Prediction – This will be a shootout with two guard oriented teams pushing the ball up and down the court. The questions will be whether Bradley will be able to handle the Rams full court press and will VCU take advantage of Bradley’s weak rebounding. The Rams are the better defensive team and will win out at home 81-74.
10:00 PM
ESPN2
Drexel vs. Creighton
Another CAA vs MVC matchup as the Dragons (19-7, 11-5 CAA RPI 53) take on the Blue Jays (18-8, 12-4 MVC RPI 22) in what promises to be a very loud Qwest Center in Omaha.
The Dragons are coming off a very disappointing road loss to William and Mary, which despite road wins over Villanova and Syracuse, have put them behind ODU in the CAA’s chase for an at large bid (grant you ODU has their own bad loss to JMU, which most people would say is worse but its often about late season losses and ODU’s was earlier in the season). Drexel has also struggled against the top CAA competition going 1-4 vs Hofstra, VCU and ODU, another factor against an at large bid. Meanwhile Creighton is coming off a solid 11 point win over Northern Iowa and has a 5-2 record vs top 50 RPI teams (wins over Xavier, Bradley twice and Missouri State twice).
The Dragons are a veteran oriented team led by their center Frank Elegar who averages 15.6 and 7 rebounds a game. Senior Chaz Crawford leads the CAA with 9.4 rebounds and 3.4 blocks per game. Seniors Bashir Mason and Dominick Mejia average 11.9 and 11. 2 points respectively. The Dragons are second in scoring defense allowing only 60.9 points per game and lead the CAA in field goal percentage defense allowing only 39.6 percent from the field. The Dragons often struggle from the field as shown in their recent game vs William and Mary shooting 33 percent from the field (Mason and Mejia combined to shoot 5 for 17 from the field).
The Bluejays are led by their outside/inside combination of guard Nate Funk (17.3 points per game) and center Anthony Tolliver (13.5 points per game). Forward Dane Watts (10.2 points per game) and guard Nate Porter (10 points per game) round out the double digit scorers for Creighton. The Bluejays are second in the MVC in scoring defense at 61.3 points per game, and fourth in field goal percentage defense at 42 percent. The Blue Jays also lead the MVC in free throw percentage at 75 percent a game
Prediction – The key matchup looks to be a big man battle with Drexel’s Elegar and Crawford taking on Creighton’s Tolliver and Watts. I think Drexel will assign Bashir Mason, one of the CAA’s best defenders, to guard Bluejay star Nate Funk. Funk may have a very hard time scoring if that’s the case. The question will be can Drexel get quality shots off on Creighton. The game will be very close and the Blue Jays’ superior free throw shooting will come into play. Creighton 69 Drexel 66.
12:00 midnight
ESPN2
Ohio (16-9, 7-5 MAC) vs New Mexico State (19-6, 9-3 WAC RPI 81)
Quick Prediction – This should be a high scoring game with Ohio averaging 74 points per game with five double digit scorers and New Mexico State averaging 79 points per game. Both teams also give up points. Ohio is next to last in the MAC in scoring defense, giving up 71 points per game, while New Mexico State is next to last in the WAC giving up 73 points per game.
The difference most likely will be in turnovers as New Mexico State is first in the WAC in steals and turnover margin, while Ohio is middle of the road in the MAC in turnover margin. My guess is that the Aggies will force a lot of turnovers on Ohio and that will be the difference in
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