Well, I couldn't recover my typepad draft, so another lesson to work in Word and copy and paste.
Lets continue with the Bracket Buster Predictions.
4:00 PM
ESPN2
#15 Southern Illinois vs. #12 Butler
This is as far as I know that the first time that a Bracket Buster game has featured TWO nationally ranked mid major teams. So this game is definitely the jewel of this weekend’s bracket buster games featuring two standout defensive teams in the Salukis (22-5, 13-3 MVC) and the Bulldogs (24-3, 11-2 Horizon).
Southern Illinois has won eight in a row and ten of its last eleven games. The MVC leading Salukis feature the number one ranked scoring defense allowing a meager 55 points per game in the Missouri Valley and are second in the league in field goal percentage allowed at 41.5 percent. The Salukis’ signature win was a 69-64 victory over now #25 Virginia Tech. The Salukis have also lost to Indiana and Arkansas. However, the Salukis play in the tough MVC and have a RPI ranking of 9, a SOS of 32 ,a record of 6-3 vs top 50 RPI teams and an 11-4 overall vs Top 100 RPI teams.
The Salukis are led scoring wise by the trifecta of Jamal Tatum, Randal Falker and Matt Shaw, who combine for 38 points and 16 rebounds a game. Though Southern Illinois has nine players that average 10 minutes or more a game, that trifecta accounts for more than 60 percent of their scoring as Southern Illinois is last in the MVC in scoring at 62.9 points per game. Also despite being fourth in field goal percentage at a respectable 45.3, the Salukis struggle to get shots off as they are last in the MVC in field goal attempts. However, thanks to their defense, their scoring margin is second in the MVC at 7.2.
Butler is actually second in the Horizon League after their loss to Wright State on Saturday. However, their overall season and non conference wins are impressive. As many know, the Bulldogs stormed through the Preseason NIT with wins at Notre Dame and Indiana, then impressive wins over Tennessee and Gonzaga in the NIT semis and finals at MSG. Butler also owns a solid win over Purdue. The Bulldogs are led by their guard oriented offense of juniors AJ Graves and Mark Green and guard/forward Brandon Crone who combine for 42 points a game. The Bulldogs are second in the Horizon in scoring, averaging 69 points per game and are first in the Horizon in free throw percentage shooting 75.8 percent from the foul line.
But its Butler’s defense that makes the Bulldogs standout. The Bulldogs are first in the Horizon in Field Goal Defense Percentage allowing only 39.8 percent from the field. Even better, the Bulldogs are first in three point field goal percentage defense, allowing only 32.4 percent from the three point arc. Butler is also excellent in turnover margin, first in the Horizon with +4.07 (the next best in the Horizon is only at 1.46). The best example of a Butler game is their 60-55 win at Indiana in the preseason NIT. The Bulldogs held the Hoosiers to 40 percent from the field and 3 of 14 from the three point line. The Hoosiers had 19 turnovers to the Bulldogs 11. Finally, Butler shot 21 of 26 from the line. Classic Bulldogs game.
Prediction – I would be shocked if the game did not end up in the fifties or low sixties at best. Though Southern Illinois’ three point defense stacks up well with Butler’s guard oriented offense, Butler moves the ball so well and their defense will make the Saluki’s offense struggle even more than it usually does. Finally, Butler will win the game at the free throw line. Bulldogs win a close game 59-55.
ESPN2
6:00 PM
Northern Iowa vs. #10 Nevada
One of the great mid major mysteries/disappointments, the Northern Iowa Panthers (16-11, 7-9 MVC) vs #10 Nevada (22-2,10-1 WAC), who many would say is not really a mid major. The Panthers started the season 13-2 and when the Bracket Busters pairings were announced, the Panthers were had lost 4 of their last 6 but were still 15-6 and ranked very high in the RPI. Since then, the Panthers have lost 5 of their last 6 and now have a RPI of 90. Nevada, though having won 15 of their last 16 games, has not played top competition with a SOS of 152, and have played only one game vs. a Top 50 RPI team (and lost).
Northern Iowa is led by their big men, Grant Stout and Eric Coleman who combine for 25 points and 18 rebounds a game. Northern Iowa struggles to score points as they only average about 66 points a game, which is eighth in the MVC. They are third in scoring defense at 62 points a game, but their margin of victory is only sixth in the MVC, which ironically is their position in the MVC. They also struggle on three point defense, having allowed teams to shoot 36 percent from the three point arc, which is eighth in the MVC. A possible reason for teams shooting threes against the Panthers is that the Panthers lead the MVC in blocks per game with 3.3.
Nevada is the second leading scoring team in the WAC at 77 points per game and leads the WAC in field goal percentage at nearly 49 percent a game. Everyone knows about All American candidate Nick Fazekas and his 20 points and 11 rebounds a game. But the Wolfpack have two other dangerous scorers in Marcellus Kemp (17.9 per game) and Ramon Sessions (13.1 per game). Kyle Shiloh just misses being the fourth Wolfpack double digit scorer at 9.4 points per game. Nevada leads in the WAC also in three point field goal percentage at nearly 41 percent a game.
Prediction – The matchup between Coleman and Stout vs. Fazekas should be very entertaining on the boards but the Wolfpack’s accuracy shooting the three does not bode well for the Panthers and their propensity to allow the three. Had this game been earlier in the season, the Panthers would have a much better chance, but the Panthers seemingly have lost their way and this looks to be a blowout. Nevada wins going away 82-66.
6:00 PM
ESPN 360
Old Dominion vs. Toledo
The streaking Monarchs (20-6, 13-3 CAA) take on the MAC leading Rockets (14-10, 10-2 MAC). This looks to be a mismatch with ODU’s rising 51 RPI vs. Toledo’s 93 RPI but Toledo has played stiff competition and has faced CAA opponents already this year.
ODU has won eight in row, the last two being impressive wins over CAA leading VCU and Hofstra, which allowed ODU to take over sole possession of second place in the CAA. They have a signature road win over #16 Georgetown, an impressive 13 point victory. They have swept Drexel twice and lost tough games to Clemson, Winthrop and MAAC leading Marist (they also lost to #25 Virginia Tech)
The Monarchs are led by three seniors; Valdus Vasylius, Arnaud Dahi and Drew Williamson, who combine for 37 points and 16 rebounds a game. The Monarchs are a deep team that often plays eight-nine players a game. ODU leads the CAA in rebounding margin, assists, and is second in steals. They are a tough physical team that likes to wear down opponents inside (see the recent win over Hofstra as proof).
Toledo struggled at the start of the year, going 4-8, but it was against tough competition such as losses at Missouri State, at Iowa, at Drexel, at Vanderbilt, at Kansas and they had a tournament win over VCU (the Rockets must feel like an honorary member of the CAA, this is their third CAA opponent this year). The Rockets righted themselves winning seven in a row.
The Rockets are led by the trio of Keonta Howell, Justin Ingram and my favorite name in the Bracket Buster games, Florentino Valencia, who combine for 43 points a game. Toledo averages 45 percent from the field, but unfortunately the Rockets are dead last in the MAC in field goal percentage defense allowing opponents to shoot 47.5 percent from the field. They are also dead last in rebounding margin, last in rebounding offense and next to last in rebounding defense. What keeps the Rockets in games is that they are first in steals and third in turnover margin.
Prediction – The matchup does not bode well for Toledo. Old Dominion is an excellent rebounding team and Toledo quite possibly one of the worst. ODU should be able to rebound and score at will against a week inside Toledo team. Throw in ODU playing their best basketball of the season and it will be ODU winning handily 74-60.
7:00 PM
Utah State vs Oral Roberts
ESPNU
The Utah State Aggies (19-7, 8-4 WAC) travel to Oral Roberts (18-8, 10-1 Mid Con) to take on the Mid Continent Conference leading Golden Eagles. The Aggies have no signature wins to speak of sans a win over WAC second place New Mexico State, yet have a RPI of 64 (despite a SOS of 152). The Golden Eagles have a signature road win over #8 Kansas 78-71 and have a RPI of 96 with a SOS of 188.
The Aggies are led by junior guard Jaycee Carroll who averages 20 points per game, shoots 54 percent from the field, and shoots 90 percent from the foul line. No surprise that Utah State leads the WAC in free throw percentage at a whopping 77 percent. Utah State is last in the WAC in rebounding offense but first in rebounding defense. Their defense is a little suspect as they allow their opponents to shoot 45 percent from the field.
The Golden Eagles are led by big man Caleb Green who averages 19.9 points per game and 9.7 rebounds a game. He has been remarkably consistent in his averages in points and rebounds in his four years at Oral Roberts. He is joined by fellow senior Ken Tutt who averages 15.7 points per game (he averaged 20 when he was a freshman). The Golden Eagles average 71 points per game, which leads the Mid Con and they also lead the Mid con in scoring defense at 64 points per game. Their most impressive stat is that they lead the Mid Con in three point field goal percentage defense only allowing 30 percent from the three point arc.
Prediction – These are two equally matched teams with Oral Roberts having the slight edge in defense. Utah State’s free throw shooting will keep it close but the Golden Eagles being at home will give them the edge 72-68.
I will have the rest of my predictions tonite or early tomorrow morning.
Comments