Lets continue with the second part of my Bracket Buster preview
Saturday February 17
1:00 PM ESPNU
Applachian State vs. Wichita State
The Mountaineers (19-6, 11-3 Southern) travel to Wichita State (17-9,8-7 MVC) to face a Shockers team that has stumbled from their 9-0 Top 10 start to go 8-9 over the last 17 games. The troubles started for Wichita State when they lost close games to both New Mexico and USC in the Las Vegas Classic. Before Wichita State could right themselves they went right into Missouri Valley action and proceeded to lose another four out of five. None of the teams they lost to were patsies - Southern Illinois, Northern Iowa, Missouri State and on the road to Indiana State (the only non Horizon conference team to beat Butler). Wichita State has won five out of its last six to move into fourth in the Missouri Valley - its only loss a home loss to conference leader Southern Illinois. However Wichita State's RPI has dropped to 72 due to its midseason struggles.
Applachian State has had basically the reverse kind of season from Wichita State. The Mountaineers struggled early getting blown out by Clemson, Virginia Tech and Wake Forest (only the Demon Deacons loss would be considered bad) and were only 5-3 after eight games. Applachian State though found itself in a four game stretch, starting with their impressive run in the San Juan Shootout. First they knocked off Virginia (a likely NCAA tournament bound team at 17-7, 8-3 in ACC), then knocked off UCF (second in Conference USA), then beating SEC Vanderbilt (49 in RPI) in the championship game. Then for icing on the cake, the Mountaineers went to Richmond and knocked off CAA leader VCU on its home court. This has left the Mountaineers with an impressive 3-0 record vs top 50 RPI teams and a respectable RPI of 60.
Wichita State is led by the trifecta of Kyle Wilson, PJ Couisnard and Sean Ogirri, who combine for nearly 37 points, 14 rebounds and 7 assists a game. The Shockers are a veteran team starting three seniors and two juniors, plus they are deep with nine players averaging 14 minutes or more a game. Wichita State is third or fourth in most Valley categories, which would explain their fourth place status in the conference. Their average margin of victory is 6.6 points a game, however they struggle on defense, only sixth in the conference on field goal percentage defense, giving up 43 percent from the field. The Shockers do not lead the MVC in any category and are 9-2 at home (only two losses to Northern Iowa and Southern Illinois).
Applachian State is a high scoring team that averages 76 points per game and shoots 48 percent from the field, which leads the Southern conference. DJ Thompson is their leading scorer at 15 points per game, however its their second leading scorers, Donte Minter and Jeremy Clayton that are the more interesting. Minter is the Mountaineers sixth man, a 6-8 250 pound offensive force, who only averages 19 minutes a game, yet scores 12.3 points a game on sixty five percent shooting from the field. Yes 65 percent FG percentage. Their other big man, 6-7 Jeremy Clayton shoots 60 percent from the field. They distribute the ball well, with the Mountaineers second in conference in assists and they are also second in steals. The Mountaineers play 8 players for the most part, the least of which averages 12 minutes a game.
Prediction - This should be a high scoring game with neither team a very good FG percentage defensive team. Though this is a desperate time for the Shockers, needing a good home win to impress the committee, Wichita State has been beatable at home. Combine that with Applachian State's impressive road and neutral schedule wins gives the edge to the Mountaineers. I also like the one two punch of Clayton and Minter to wear down Wichita State inside. I like Applachian State in this, winning 79-73. If Applachian State wins this game, the tournament selection committee will have to seriously look at the Mountaineers as an at large team.
Saturday February 17
3:00 PM ESPNU
Hofstra vs. Holy Cross
Talk about equally matched teams. The Pride are 19-8, 12-4 in the CAA with a RPI of 70. Holy Cross is 19-7 and 10-1 in the Patriot with a RPI of 69 and SOS's are pretty close. They have also had four common opponents - William and Mary, George Mason, Siena, and Syracuse. Holy Cross defeated William and Mary and Siena, and lost to Syracuse and George Mason. Hofstra defeated the Tribe, the Patriots and the Greyhounds but also lost to the Orangemen. The Patriots and the Pride each only play eight players. The difference might be that Holy Cross is 1-5 against top 100 RPI teams while Hofstra is 4-4. There are also differences in style of play.
The Crusaders are a deliberate, low post/frontcourt defensive based team with 6-5 leading scorer small forward/guard Keith Simmons, who averages 17.8 points and nearly six rebounds a game, and third leading scorer Tim Clifford, a load at 6-10 270, who averages 10 points a game. The Patriots only average 63 points per game, but lead the Patriot League in scoring defense, holding opponents to 58 points per game. The Crusaders also lead the Patriot League in blocked shots, averagng 3.5 a game led by Tim Clifford's nearly 2 blocks a game.
Hofstra, as noted here many times, is a guard oriented offense led by the trifecta of Loren Stokes, Antoine Agudio, and Carlos Rivera, the highest scoring guard trio in the country and the only team with two starters averaging 20 points a game (Stokes and Agudio). They are the second highest scoring team in the CAA, averaging 73.2 points per game and are second in three point field goal percentage. However, the Pride give up 69.6 points per game, which explains why Hofstra plays so many close games. As brilliant as their backcourt has been, their frontcourt has been, to be kind, sporadic all year. Chris Gadley has at times played up to his potential, at other times, frustrating to watch with his propensity for cheap fouls. Mike Davis Saab and Arminas Urbutis have also been inconsistent.
Prediction - This game doesn't mean much as far as an at large bid. Holy Cross' weak schedule and bad losses by the Pride to Manhattan, Charlotte and Delaware mean both teams have to win their conferences to make the dance. This should be a relatively close game considering the contrasting styles. Holy Cross will play a deliberate game, trying to keep the score in the sixties. They will accomplish this, but Hofstra is quite good at close games over the past two years, and there is nothing better than three experienced guards. Combine that with their ability to win close games and their tougher schedule and Hofstra will win a hard fought game 68-60.
I had done work on four other games but for some reason Typepad didn't save the final draft. I am going to see if I can recover the material, but if not, I will repost them tonight.
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