First, on ESPN there is a very interesting story by Gene Wojciechowski on Loren Stokes, the Hofstra player GMU's Tony Skinn punched in the groin. Just further proof of how good Hofstra is. And oh yeah, Stokes is back for the Pride next year.
Ok, lets get on to business. First, I am simply amazed at how Billy Packer, to paraphrase the late great Sam Kinison, is like a neutered dog, he just doesn't get it. Packer was on Mike and the Mad Dog yesterday stating how he just doesn't understand and that the stats don't show how George Mason keeps on winning. Billy, if you actually READ STATS and DID RESEARCH, you would find that George Mason was #8 in the nation in field goal percentage defense and in the top ten in scoring defense. George Mason also led the CAA in field goal percentage, averaging 48 percent from the field.
The final Billy Packer insult was when Packer insinuated that if you had a pickup game, the Mason players would be the last ones picked. Billy, the reason George Mason plays so well is that Jai Lewis knows how to post a player up and has nimble post moves, Will Thomas has great post moves and very unstoppable lefty hook; Lamar Butler and Folarin Campbell are dangerous from three and finally Tony Skinn plays a very solid point. Plus, they are a veteran team with three seniors starting. This is not a pickup game. Mason is an experienced, excellent team. How this man has a national analyst's job is beyond me.
Ok, enough ranting, onto the Final Four. How wacky has this NCAA tournament been? Well folks, first take a look at the experience of the starting five for all four teams. The first game pits the DC Bracket champion that has three seniors and two sophomores vs. the Minneapolis bracket champion that starts one junior and four sophomores. Game two features the Atlanta bracket champion that starts one senior, three freshmen and a sophomore vs. the Oakland bracket champion that starts two seniors, two sophomores and a freshman. So, who's the cinderella team? The team that has the most experience, the DC Bracket team with three starting seniors, George Mason, the 11 seed from that region and you could make a case that their two best players are sophomores; Folarin Campbell and Will Thomas.
College basketball has become dominated by underclassmen. For all the talk about how two high seeded young teams like North Carolina and Kansas flamed out early in the tournament, other young teams like Florida, LSU, UCLA, and Memphis played better than expected. However, George Mason's experience helped them defeat veteran underachieving teams (Michigan State) and young teams (like North Carolina and UConn) alike.
So how will this play out? In the first game, Florida has the most athleticism and possibly the most depth that George Mason has played in this tournament. The Gators go nine deep with only Taurean Green playing more than 30 minutes a game. The Gators matchup well with George Mason's size as 6-11 Joakim Noah, 6-9 Al Horford (a chiseled 242 pounds), 6-8 Chris Richard (chiseled 255 pounds) and 6-9 Adrian Moss all see significant minutes. Noah is the key defender against Jai Lewis and Will Thomas. Look for him to help double team Lewis when the lob goes into Lewis (my guess is that Florida will front Lewis), and for Noah to play behind Thomas one on one. Noah is a good enough shot blocker that Donovan will decide not to front Thomas. The key will be how Mason moves the ball around in the post. Donovan has already seen that you can not have your guards help double down on Mason, because Thomas and Lewis especially are very good at passing the ball back to Folarin Campbell, Lamar Butler and Tony Skinn for open threes. And as everyone has seen in the tournament, they are hitting them.
For Mason, the key is to put pressure on the ball on Green and Corey Brewer of Florida. The best example of this is how South Carolina played against the Gators this season. South Carolina, the two time NIT champion, won two out of three against Florida and almost won the third game. How? In the third game, they pressured Green and Brewer into numerous turnovers. Green was very worn down at the end of the game and the Gamecocks took advantage of that. Also, South Carolina pressured Brewer, who can be very sloppy with his dribbling, and the Gamecocks stole the ball often on him. Look for Skinn and Campbell to try to do that.
In the second game, UCLA is facing probably the biggest team they have faced in the tournament so far. Not in just height, but size. Glenn Davis is a handful, Tyrus Thomas is a shot blocking machine and Tasmin Mitchell is an underrated part of the Tigers averaging 11 points a game. Between Davis, Thomas and Mitchell, they average 47 points and 25 rebounds a game. UCLA really keys on their sophomore guards Jordan Farmar, and Arron Affalo. UCLA likes to play eight or nine deep while LSU tends to go seven deep at most. In their overtime win over Texas, LSU's Daryl Mitchell and Garrett Temple played all 45 minutes, while Thomas and Davis played 39 minutes.
So you have a contrast of styles. The frontcourt laden maybe seven deep Tigers vs. the guard oriented nine deep Bruins. The Tigers will try to pound it inside while I think UCLA will try to pressure the ball and make it a transition game, while trying to wear down the Tigers. Both teams have struggled to win the entire tournament, playing many close games and often coming from behind, especially in UCLA's case.
Predictions. I am going to predict the second game first. UCLA has been very fortunate to be where they are. They struggled to get by Alabama (some bad decisions by Bama down the stretch resulted in their loss), Gonzaga basically imploded the last three minutes in their sweet 16 game and Memphis played possibly the worst game of their season, yet only lost by 5 due to absolutely horrendous free throw shooting by the Bruins. UCLA can not play like they did against these teams vs. LSU and expect to win. LSU's style of offense will not allow that to happen. LSU has beaten better teams than UCLA (Texas and Duke). I like the Tigers to win 73-62.
The first game is harder to predict, because I think both teams match up well against each other and I believe both teams are playing the best ball of the four teams remaining in the tournament. Simply put, this game, I believe, is for the national championship. It really comes down to two players on each side. For Florida, its Green and Noah, and on Mason, its Skinn and Thomas. How these four play will decide the game. I am going to give a very slight edge to Florida on this. I think their depth will have a slight factor in determining the game, but Noah and Green will be the difference. I like Florida to win 70-67 in a great game.
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