NCAA Tournament First Round Sleepers and Duds - Part I

I still haven't sufficiently recovered from the committee's selection choices yesterday and perhaps I never will.   Iona Coach Jeff Ruland's comments on Mike and the Mad Dog today were classic.   Anyway, lets get to the tournament and some games I think are bracket sleepers and some that are duds.

Sleepers

#8 Kentucky vs. #9 UAB DC Bracket -  A rematch of the famous 2004 upset game, UAB could pull another one against a very inconsistent Kentucky team.  UAB has beaten SEC teams the last two years in the tournament, beating LSU last year.  I could see UAB's frenetic pace giving UConn fits in the second round.  Like the Blazers to knock off an overrated Kentucky team here.

#9 UNC Wilmington vs #8 GW Atlanta Bracket - Pops Mensah Bonsu better be ready because he is about to face a Seahawk team that goes 10 players deep and loves to bang.  UNC Wilmington also plays solid defense and doesn't turn the ballover.  This is the kind of team that loves to keep the score in the fifties, low sixties.   The Seahawks must find a second scorer though against a Colonials team that has five starters that average in double figures.  I like the Seahawks here.

#6 Oklahoma vs. #11 UW Milwaukee -  Oh the sooners must have cringed to see the Panthers here in this game.  The Panthers four leading scorers are all seniors returning from the sweet 16 team of last year.  Oklahoma has talent and played well in non conference games but have struggled at times and will see a team that likes to press and played an up and down game.   Not what the Sooners were looking for.  Love the Panthers in this spot.

Duds

#6 Michigan State vs. #11 George Mason DC Bracket - The Patriots, who were not a deep team to begin with, are minus their second best player, Tony Skinn, suspended one game for what most college basketball fans know about, the cheap shot heard around the NCAA.  The Patriots reward for making the tournament, facing a 2005 final four veteran team in Michigan State that has underachieved at times.   The Patriots will play Gabe Norwood at the point but have no help for him off the bench against a Michigan State team that goes nine deep.  Also 6-7 280 Jai Lewis will have a difficult time with 6-11 270 Paul Davis, one of the few centers that matches up very well against Jai's size.   This won't be pretty.  Look for the Spartans to win by at least 20.  The committee will wish they had put Hofstra in this spot.

# 4 Illinois vs #13 Air Force DC Bracket - Just what Air Force wanted to see, the defending national runner up.  Air Force's offense will not surprise Illinois, who has played Northwestern, another disciple of the Princetion backdoor cut offense.  Illinois did well against Northwestern, winning by 11 and 16.  The Falcons have only played one team the caliber of the Fighting Illini, an eleven point loss at Washington.  Expect the same fate here, possibly by more, say 15-16.  Cincinatti or Missouri State would have been a better choice here.

#7 Georgetown vs. #10 Northern Iowa - The Panthers rely on star guard Ben Jacobson, often times too much.  Georgetown's Jeff Green should be able to shut down Jacobson while Roy Hibbert and Brandon Bowman will be too much for Northern Iowa's big men.  Expect the Panthers to struggle to score against the more athletic Hoyas.  Expect the Hoyas to win by double digits.

Comments

[Jeff Hufnagle]

This year's crop of 8/9 games may provide to be some of the best yet. Arkansas may be closer to home, but Bucknell is going to be a sentimental favorite that a lot of people will be pulling for. Any of these games can go either way...as they usually do.

Just wanted to add two sleepers and duds for you:

Sleepers:
#2 Tennessee vs. #15 Winthrop - Winthrop beat Marquette and almost beat Bama and Auburn. This is a GOOD team. The SEC isn't great, especially when on the road, and the locale for this game favors the Eagles. Winthrop has been knocking on this door the past couple of years. This is my upset of the bracket. Winthrop finally gets it done, and may actually have an easier game in the next round, depending on what you feel about Seton Hall and Witchita State.

#6 Indiana vs. #11 San Diego State - Not only did Indiana find a way to get into this tournament, but they're a good draw. San Diego State was one of those teams that may have lost their championship game and STILL have gotten in. Why? They can play, supposedly. Everyone is interested in the 'Cuse story, but we forget that IU got themselves in with some strong play down the stretch as well.

Duds:
#7 Marquette vs. #10 Alabama - 'Bama may have beaten some of the top SEC teams, but they did them at home, and...well...just how good is the SEC? Best win on the road? Kentucky. Weren't the Wildcats fighting for their lives a week or two ago before the season's end? If South Carolina can beat them, then so can Marquette, who has played most everyone tough. 'Bama and Seton Hall don't belong. We'll see why this week.

#4 Kansas vs. #13 Bradley - Kansas has matured. This is a better and more poised squad than last year's over-confident bunch. Bradley comes in as a bubble-buster, working their way to the dance the honest way: solid play. These guys were ready to ball against the MVC, but against a team that just beat Texas? Bradley will look like they didn't belong out of all the MVC at-large's.

Toss up: when WSU beats the Hall, will Digger Phelps tip his hat to the Shockers, call it an ugly game overall, or say that WSU caught the Hall on a bad day?