San Diego State won in overtime, so the last mid major bubble stumbling block is a potentially big one with South Carolina vs. Florida today. Will the real Florida Gators show up today?
Ok, its time for "Moore's Simple Selection Rules", a set of guidelines that the NCAA tournament selection commitee needs to go by. I originally had it as philosophies, but that wasn't strong enough.
Rule #1 - Do not reward mediocrity in major conferences. This means if you are an 8-8 or 9-7 team and you lose your first round or quarterfinal games, no matter how tough the league is, you are not a good team and not worthy of a bid to the NCAA tournament. I am tired of hearing "Well the Big Ten is a really tough league, its unfair to exclude such and such because of it". Balderdash. If you are .500 or slightly above .500 and you can't win a first round game in your own conference, what makes you or the committee think you are going to win a first round NCAA tournament game. Those affected by rule #1 - Cincinatti (8-8 in the Big East and lost first game to Syracuse), Michigan (8-8 in the Big Ten, then lost to the second worst seed in the Big Ten, Minnesota), Florida State (9-7 in the ACC then lost to last place Wake Forest in the first round of the ACC tournament), Seton Hall (9-7 in the Big East, lost badly to #10 seeded Rutgers in first round of Big East tournament), Maryland (8-8 in the ACC and lost badly in the quarterfinals to BC) and Colorado (9-7 in the Big 12, lost by 32 to Texas A&M in the quarterfinals). None of these teams with the possible exception of Cincinatti should make the tournament.
Rule #2 - If you are a major conference bubble team, a bad untimely loss at the end of the season equals or outweighs any one good sole win. Simply put, if you are a bubble team with a lack of big wins over quality opponents, outside of one quality win under your belt, a bad loss at the end of the season in the Committee's eyes should equal or outweigh that sole good win. Those affected by Rule #2 - Florida State - The Seminoles sole big win is over Duke. However, Florida State lost by 12 in the first round to the last place 3-13 Demon Deacons of Wake Forest, being outscored by 20 in the second half. If you can't beat the last place team in your conference, you are not going to beat a much better team (say a #5 seed) in the first round of the NCAA tournament. Another reason for the selection committee to eliminate Florida State.
There are two addendums to this rule -
Rule -#2A - If you are a mid major or non major conference team and you lose in your quarterfinal round, you should be for the most part out of the tournament selection bid. Mid major teams must get to at least the conference semis to be considered worthy of a tournament selection bid. If you can't beat a low seed in the quarterfinals of your own tournament, what makes the committee think you can win a first round NCAA tournament game. Teams affected by this - Missouri State (lost to Northern Iowa in MVC quarterfinals), Air Force (lost in MWC quarters to Wyoming) and BYU (lost in MVC quarters to Utah). In Missouri State's case, a bad 15 point loss in the quarterfinals to Northern Iowa really hurt.
Rule #2B- If you are a bubble team, a bad loss to one of your fellow bubble teams earlier in the year may be used against you. Simply put, when two teams are on relatively equal bubble footing, an earlier game in the year between the two, especially a bad loss at home for one of the teams, can make a difference. Team affected by Rule 2A - George Mason. The Patriots lost to fellow bubble member Creighton by 20 at George Mason earlier in the year. The committee will look at that when deciding George Mason's fate, even though the Patriots beat Creighton's fellow MVC member Wichita State at Wichita State later in the year.
Rule #3 - Do NOT have a bad losing record down the stretch. The committee looks very closely at how you did the last 9-10 games of the season. If you are a bubble team and lose a significant majority of your games including a first round or quarterfinal game in your tournament, you should not make the tournament. Teams affected by Rule #3 - Michigan, Maryland, and Colorado. Michigan lost seven of their last nine games including the loss to Minnesota in the first round. Maryland lost seven of their last twelve, including the pounding at the hands of BC. Colorado also lost seven of their last twelve including the 32 point shellacking by Texas A&M. Second reason to eliminate these three teams.
Rule #4 - Do NOT have a significantly bad record on the road. The commitee is not very fond of bubble teams that have bad road records, ie records significantly under .500. Neutral sites do not count. Committee members want to see how you do in hostile environments and a sub .500 road record is indicative of a team not worthy of a tournament bid. Teams affected by Rule #4 - What a shock. Michigan (2-6 on the road in the Big 10), Maryland (2-8 on the road), and Colorado (4-7 on the road).
Rule #5 - Strength of Schedule doesn't matter. What you do with your strength of schedule matters - All you hear often, "Yeah we might be .500, but take a look at our strength of schedule (sos)." No that's not what matters. How you did in those strength of schedule games matters. If you have the best sos in the country and you lost just about all of those tough games, you are not a good team and not worthy of consideration. Teams Affected by This - Maryland, Cincinatti, and Missouri State. Hey Maryland, you had the #11 ranked SOS in the country. What did you do with it. Go 2-7 vs teams in the top 50 RPI. Cincinatti and Missouri State, you weren't much better, 4-8 vs the Top 50 RPI.
Rule #6 - When considering two teams from the same conference for one bubble spot, head to head record should be considered heavily when it favors one team over the other. Every once in a while you have two teams from the same conference fighting for the same bubble spot. Often the easiest determination is head to head. If one team won the season series, especially convincingly from the other, that should be a determining factor in the decision. Teams Affected by This - George Mason and Missouri State. Hofstra, another bubble team, swept George Mason in their season series, including a nine point win in the CAA tournament semifinals. Northern Iowa, another MVC team on the bubble, took two out of three from Missouri State, including a 15 point win in the MVC quarterfinals.
Rule #7 - The Bubble Team Suspended Player Rule - Unfortunately this is one the committee has to deal with. If a bubble team has one of their top players suspended for the first round of a game, the committee must decide whether that team would have a good showing in the first round of the NCAA tournament or if another team would be a better choice. Team affected by this - Sadly this affects George Mason due to Tony Skinn's suspension. Sorry Andy Glockner, its not outrageous to use this as a determining factor. The committee has to put out the best 34 at large teams and if one bubble team is without one of its best players, the committee has a concern that the other team it is playing will have an unfair advantage. Skinn is one of the three best players on a relatively thin Patriots team. This will be a determining factor in its fate.
Rule #8 - If you are affected by two or more of the previous rules, you should be basically eliminated from tournament bid consideration unless no other worthy bubble teams are left. Teams affected by this - Plenty! Michigan, Cincinatti, Florida State, Maryland, Michigan, Missouri State and George Mason. Sorry guys, for the most part, you don't belong in the dance before other bubble teams like Northern Iowa, Bradley and Hofstra to name three. The only teams if i am the committee that I would consider after taking those three teams I mentioned, are Missouri State, Cincinatti and George Mason in that order.
Rule #9 - When all else fails, use the RPI, which the committee is supposed to use as a determining factor in deciding a team's fate. Remember, NCAA. you changed the RPI to give the mid majors who can't schedule major conference teams in home to home series or even road series a chance to compete for a bid. When teams like Northern Iowa (RPI 23), Hofstra (RPI30) or Bradley (RPI 35) all have significantly better RPIs than Michigan (RPI 46), Seton Hall (RPI 57) or Florida State (RPI 60) and were not affected by any of my eight other rules, you simply can not in good conscience keep those three mid major bubble teams out of the NCAA tournament. Simply can not.
Hopefully South Carolina loses and forces the committee to make the correct choices. We'll see. Just follow the rules, guys.
Hmm, strangely enough, all of your rules seem to favor Hofstra.
Posted by: Grant | March 12, 2006 at 05:27 PM