Quick Notes on tonight's action
How's this for a trifecta
1) A 25-2 run against UConn.
2) A 25-2 run when you are down 19 to UConn
3) A 25-2 run and you still lose the game by one point.
Yes, only the tough luck Notre Dame Fighting Irish managed to do this trifecta tonight, losing 75-74 at UConn. After being down 19 in the second half, the Irish went on a 25-2 run to go up six 69-63. Then UConn stepped up its defense, but Notre Dame also failed to capitalize on many scoring chances late to put the game away and David Williams tied the game for the Huskies and sent it to overtime. In overtime, neither team could score until 1:41 left when the Huskies took the lead. However Notre Dame came back to take the lead on a three by Rob Kurz. Again the Irish had a chance to extend the lead but failed and UConn hit two free throws to go up by one. Notre Dame had the ball with 27 seconds left and the shot clock off but failed to convert. Notre Dame should have won this game but just too many terrible possesions late in the game and in overtime. UConn survives a major scare and the Irish may have just killed their chance to get into the Big East tournament.
That's because St John's went ahead of them in the standings by defeating Seton Hall at MSG tonight. Seton Hall is doing its best to run their NCAA tournament chances into the ground. First, they lose at home to Notre Dame by 13 on Saturday. Then tonight, the Hall scores only 47 points in their 11 point loss to the Red Storm. The Pirates are in danger of getting passed by both Cincinatti and Syracuse for the NCAA tournament bid as now both teams are tied with them in the standings for seventh.
Michigan got a huge win over Ilinois tonight, 72-64, further cementing their at large bid to the tournament. With an 8-6 conference record, Michigan is guaranteed at least a .500 record in conference. If they can win one of their two remaining games (at Ohio State, home to freefalling Indiana), they will finish over .500 in the Big Ten, which should lock them into a bid.
#13 Boston College stumbled on the road losing to Virginia 72-58. Virginia has the unlikely possibility of finishing over .500 in the ACC in regular season but not getting a bid to the NCAA tournament. With 10 losses and a RPI of 72, the Cavaliers are a long shot for a bid to the dance. Yet if they win two of their remaining three games (at Clemson, at North Carolina and home to Maryland), they could give the tournament selection committee some aggravation when trying to leave out an over 500 ACC conference team (it would be the right move however. There are more deserving teams than the Cavs.
#16 Kansas continues its roll by beating the Baylor Bears 76-61. The Jayhawks were up by as many as 25 points in the second half. The game with Texas on Saturday night looks really huge now. With a win Saturday night, Kansas could make a strong case for a #3 seed in the tournament. Don't think many people were thinking that when the Jayhawks were 3-4 after losing to St Joe's early in the season.
Finally, the Xavier freefall continues as Dayton downed Xavier 66-62. Right now, I only see one A10 team making the tournament, GW, unless there is an upset in the tournament.
Now, A quick look at the current top 10 in the coaches poll;
#1 Duke - Prognosis - Excellent. Next two games are at Georgia Tech and Temple. Both games should be wins if Duke comes to play. Duke would clinch the #1 seed in the ACC tournament with a win against the Yellow Jackets. The two games after that should be interesting at Florida State then home to North Carolina. The Florida State game could be critical for the Seminoles to win to make the NCAA tournament. North Carolina could also provide a serious test but the game is home. Duke could go thru the ACC regular season undefeated, even in a down year for the ACC a still remarkable feat. Barring a complete meltdown, they will be a #1 seed in the NCAA tournament.
#2 Villanova - Prognosis - Very Good. Tough schedule the rest of the way; at Cincinatti, then at Georgetown, then home to St John's, then at Syracuse. A win for the Bearcats over the #2 Wildcats might give them a bid, so that will be a very difficult game. Then Saturday at UConn. Enough said. They shouldn't have too difficult a time with the Johnies, which leaves the dangerous game against what could be a desperate Syracuse team. If Nova wins 3 out of 4 into the Big East tournament then makes it the Big East final, that's worthy of a #1 seed.
#3 Memphis - Prognosis - Excellent. Three of their last four Conference USA games are at home (UTEP, Tulsa, and Houston) with their only road game @UAB being the toughest game. UAB might be playing for its at large tournament bid life and Memphis only won the first game at home by seven. Still, Memphis should win that game. Look for the Tigers to finish the regular season in Conf USA undefeated and nothing suggests that they will lose in the Conf USA tournament, so a #1 seed looks awfully good right now.
#4 UConn - Prognosis - Excellent now that they survived Notre Dame. Three games left. Two home games are Villanova, a huge game and a wounded and soon to be done Louisville now that David Padgett is out for the year. The one road game...Big East patsy South Florida. UConn runs the regular season table and finishes as co Big East regular season champ with Nova. If they get to the Big East final, they are a #1 seed as well.
#5 Gonzaga- Prognosis - Very Good. Last two games are at home with San Diego and San Francisco. Should win both. Hard to see any teams beating them in the West Coast Conference Tournament. Problem for them is that their conference is so weak (in the past couple of years, St Mary's or Santa Clara would be a true test for them and a worthy NCAA tournament team) that this will give them at best a #2 seed in one of the regionals. Also the heavy reliance on Adam Morrison may cost them in a second round NCAA tournament game. However, Gonzaga has played quality opponents early on in the season unlike the next team...
#6 George Washington - Prognosis - Good. The fact that the A-10 is weaker than in past years is hurting GW, along with their weak non conference schedule (only two good teams were Maryland - win, NC State- lost by 21). A good test will be a home game tomorrow against surging LaSalle (they play a potential trap game at Fordham, then at St Bonaventure, then home to Charlotte). GW can not afford to lose in the A10 tournament otherwise they will get a four or five seed. Even if they win the A10 tournament, their weak RPI might result in a #3 seed in the tournament.
#7 Texas - Prognosis - Very Good. Texas has a tough schedule remaining, but the tough games; Kansas and Oklahoma are at home (they are also on the road at Kansas State and Texas A&M). The Oklahoma loss hurt, but not that much damage. Kansas will be a really good test for the Longhorns, a team that's on a roll. If Texas can put up an impressive win against the Jayhawks, get revenge on the Sooners, then get to the Big 12 tournament final. the Longhorns should get a #2 seed with their schedule.
#8 Illnois - Prognosis - Falling seed wise. Lost at Michigan tonight, which may have clinched the Wolverines bid to the NCAA tournament. Next for Illnois is home to #20 Iowa, then at Minnesota (who knocked off Iowa), then at #16 Michigan State. Very good chance they may finish fifth in the conference. Unless they have a real good showing in the Big Ten tournament, they are looking at best a fourth seed, perhaps even a fifth seed in the tournament.
#9 Florida - Prognosis - Falling seed wise as well. For the longest time, they looked to be a strong #2 perhaps with a shot to be a #1 seed. Now they will be fortunate to be a #3 seed. They desperately need a win at home tomorrow against Tennessee, who they are two games in back of in the SEC East. Then after the Volunteers, the schedule is not any easier going on the road to surging Alabama, then home to Georgia, then finishing the season at Kentucky, a team that may desperately need a win to clinch their NCAA tournament bid themselves (Kentucky has road games at LSU and Tennessee before facing the Gators). If Florida wins 3 of the 4, then has a good SEC showing, then a #3 seed and no lower than a #4 seed should be in the Gators future.
#10 Pittsburgh - Prognosis - Good. Last three games are home to Providence, then a rematch of the backyard brawl at West Virginia (Pitt won the first game by four), then home to Seton Hall. The Panthers game with West Virginia will decide who finishes third in the conference. If Pitt finishes third in the conference and gets to the Big East Semis, then they should be a lock for a #3 seed.
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