Note - Thanks to the geniuses at ESPN, a great Missouri Valley game - Northern Iowa at Creighton is being shown on ESPNU because of the Winter X Games. Would love to see the TV rating the Winter X Games gets, especially here in NY, because outside of 16 year old skateboard wanna bees, who would watch such drivel? And of course, the geniuses that are Cablevision don't have ESPNU yet and I have the IO digital cable box with the supposed hundreds of channels and ESPNU is not one of them (and Cablevision doesn't have ESPN360 either...nice work Dolans!). Yes Cablevision IO Digital would rather show the Fox Soccer channel instead. Oooh another scoreless game in England!
Since I can't watch a great mid major game, lets start analyzing each of the televised Bracket Buster games instead one at a time.
Bucknell (16-3) vs. #25 Northern Iowa (19-3)- The best game of Bracket Buster weekend.
The mighty Bucknell Bison, slayer of Kansas last year in the tournament, have a Sportsline RPI of 32. They stampeded the Orange at Syracuse (SRPI #36), then knocked off DePaul at DePaul (SRPI #73)and also have a win vs. St Joe's (SRPI #46). Two of their three losses came against the #2 and #4 teams in the country (Duke and Villanova). Their only blemish is a loss at Santa Clara.
#25 Northern Iowa Panthers have a similar pedigree. The Panthers (Sportsline RPI # 14 and SOS 55) defeated Iowa (SRPI #7), downed LSU (SRPI #19) at LSU, and have wins against fellow conference powers, Wichita State (SRPI # 22) on the road, Missouri State (SRPI #44) on the road and Southern Illnois (SRPI # 20) at home. Their only losses came at Iowa State (SRPI #58), at Bradley (SPRI #57) and home to Creighton (SRPI #26).
Despite Bucknell's impressive pedigree, right now their strength of schedule -132, may not be high enough to get them an at large bid. However a win at Northern Iowa, especially if still ranked, will make the selection committee look twice if Bucknell does not win the Patriot League outright (unlikely as that is). Northern Iowa has much more of a case for an at large bid with their SOS at 55 and their marquee wins over Iowa and LSU. Also a 9-2 road record against a difficult schedule rates high with the selection committee. What also will look good in their favor is that they did a significant part of this without one of their best players. Eric Crawford (10.5 ppg, 56% FG) has been out due to injury, but is supposed to be back in late February. However, its unclear if he will be ready for the Bucknell game. A win against Bucknell only solidifies the Panthers' chances. A loss would be a blemish, but not something they couldn't overcome.
Who needs this game more? - Bucknell. With Syracuse struggling and St Joe's unlikely a tournament team (unless they win the A10 tournament),Bucknell may not have beaten a team that will make the NCAA tournament. They need this win to strengthen their at large case. Northern Iowa already has the legit wins, the SOS and the impressive road record necessary to receive an at large bid.
Prediction - If Crawford comes back in time, its a Panthers win for sure. However, if Crawford does not play, this will be a very close game. Chris McNaughton is the Bison's leading scorer and the 6-11 senior has 5 inches on Eric Coleman, the Panthers center. Look for the Panthers to double team McNaughton, perhaps with Grant Stout, the Panthers leading rebounder helping out, and force Bucknell to rely more on guards Kevin Bettencourt and Charles Lee. Crawford would be a huge help because at 6-4, he would be a difficult challenge for the smaller Bison guards. On offense, if Crawford's not available, Northern Iowa will continue to rely on the triumverate of Ben Jacobson, Stout and Coleman. Expect Northern Iowa to have a significant advantage on the boards.
Bucknell ideally wants to keep the game in the 60's. If it becomes a more fast pace game, then it favors the Panthers. I don't think Crawford will be back in time, but I think due to the rebounding advantage, the Panthers will get a lot of second chance points. In a slugfest, the Panthers win at home 69-63.
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