Mid Major Hoops

The Madness is Not Over Yet..Not By a Long Shot

Well, today's the day.  Several months of hard work for many teams comes down to today.  Selection Sunday.  And it has been in this tumultuous, wacky season, some things are still not settled.

First, in the Big Ten, the Fighting Illini have continued their amazing run and knocked off fellow upstart Minnesota yesterday 54-50.  Bruce Weber's team now faces #1 seed Wisconsin in the final.  If the Illini win, they will knock a bubble team out of the tournament, quite possibly their fellow Big Ten 10 Ohio State, who stands precariously on the bubble.

Second, there is a more amazing run in the SEC.  The last seeded Georgia Bulldogs have run through an amazing gauntlet, which included winning two games in the span of basically eight hours.  First, the Bulldogs ended the remaining hopes of Mississippi in the first round.  Next, after a tornado forced their quarterfinal game vs. Kentucky and the rest of the SEC tournament to Georgia  Tech, the Bulldogs won the rescheduled game vs. the Wildcats 60-56. Then, only several hours later, the Bulldogs knocked out Mississippi State 64-60.  The Bulldogs, last in the SEC in scoring offense and next to last in Field Goal percentage have won the old fashioned way..through tough defense.  In their win over Kentucky, Georgia held the Wildcats to 35 percent from the field.  In their win over Mississippi State, Georgia held the other Bulldogs to 32.8 percent shooting from the field.  Georgia faces Arkansas in the final.  The Razorbacks have clinched at least an at large berth with wins over #16 ranked Vanderbilt and beat #4 Tennessee on Steven Hill's only basket in the game with five seconds left.  With the loss, the Volunteers probably lost any chance of a #1 seed.

Congratulations to UNLV who made sure that their fate was kept out of the NCAA Selection Committee’s hands and knocked off the regular season MVC champions #23 ranked BYU 76-61.  The Cougars will definitely make the tournament after their strong regular season.  The Runnin Rebels were somewhat on the bubble before the championship win on their home court.

Congratulations to Boise State who somehow survived triple overtime on the home court the Aggies of New Mexico State and won 107-102.  Reggie Larry had 31 points and 16 rebounds to lead the Broncos. Congratulations to UMBC, who had a much easier time than Boise State, who at home trounced Hartford 82-65 to win the America East championship.  It’s the first time ever to the dance for the Retrievers (their fans apparently have “Retriever Fever” - great slogan).  Meanwhile, in the MEAC, Coppin State became the first team to make the NCAA tournament this year with a losing record, knocking off #1 seed Morgan State 62-60.  The Eagles may very well play SWAC champion Mississippi Valley State in the play in game.  The Delta Devils (what a name) needed two free throws from Carl Lucas with .4 seconds left to play and beat upstart Jackson State 59-58 (is there anything more pressure mounting then having to hit two free throws with basically no time left to take your team to the NCAA tournament...pretty hard to top that).  Finally, kudos to the Titans of Cal State Fullerton who made the tournament for the first time in 30 years, knocking off Cinderella wannabe UC Irvine 81-66.

And also, congrats to the big boys Memphis and Pitt who won their conference tournaments.  Pitt did it in style, knocking off #8 Georgetown in the final of the Big East Tournament and basically ended any remote hope Georgetown had of a number one seed.  Today also, Kansas and Texas play for what I think is a #1 seed in the championship of the Big 12.

But the most impressive performance yesterday came out of the MAC.  Congratulations to Tom Kemp’s favorite team (that’s not Miami of Ohio his alma mater), the Kent State Golden Flashes, who were really really impressive in dismantling Akron 74-55 in the MAC championship game.  The Golden Flashes were also the regular season MAC champs and as they did all season, they won with smothering defense.  The Golden Flashes shot 51 percent from the field while holding the Zips to 30 percent from the field.  The “Q”, Haminn Quaintance led four Kent State scorers in double figures with 16 points.

Finally, yesterday in the A10, the championship game had major at large bid implications yesterday.  Temple came back from a ten point first half deficit and defeated St Joseph's 69-64 to win the wild A-10 Tourney in Atlantic City yesterday.  The Owls used a 16-2 run to start the second half to go up 41-34 and never looked back.  Temple makes the NCAA tournament for the first time since 2001.  The loss puts the Hawks squarely on the bubble.  Its been a crazy A10 tournament, which has been typical of the A10 the past two months.  First, it appeared that there would be four guaranteed teams making the NCAAs from the A10; Xavier, Dayton, Rhode Island and UMass.  Then Dayton lost a couple of key players and starting spiraling downward.  Rhode Island forgot how to play defense and shoot free throws, and as a result, basically imploded.  UMass slipped up mid season, looked out of the tournament frey, then made a late run to finish third in the conference, looked like they were in and then killed themselves by losing to Charlotte in the quarterfinals.  Meanwhile St Joseph’s staggered along, managed one win vs. Xavier in the regular season, then got hot in the tourney and knocked off Xavier again, to put themselves on the precipice....only to get knocked out in the final by the stealthy Temple Owls who quietly finished second in the A10 regular season and just kept winning convincingly including in the final.    Temple and Xavier are in.  St Joseph’s can only hope their two wins over Xavier plus a win over Villanova gets them in.

I’ll be back later with who I think should be..and who should be out when the committee announces the 34 at large teams along with the other 31 tonight.

Truly March Madness Part II

Well, I never got a chance to do part II until this evening and even wilder things have happened today.  We had #12 Xavier get knocked off, a tornado may have touched down near the Georgia Dome, a MAC tournament semifinal was played and officiated like a rugby match,  and we actually had a top seed play well in the Big East tournament.

Welcome to Bubbleland

Thursday Bubble teams

Well, there were several games yesterday that had major implications.  The first game, which I referred to the clunker of the day was in the Big 12 Tournament, where the #5 seed Baylor lost to the #12 Colorado in the first round of the tournament in double overtime.  It was the first time ever in the Big 12 Tourney that the #12 seed ever defeated the #5 seed.  I was watching the end of the game on ESPN360 and Baylor had two chances to win the game in regulation.  First, Kevin Rogers missed two free throws with 1:15 left.  Then after a Colorado miss, Baylor had a chance to win the game again.  During this I emailed my friend Grant Hayden, a Kansas graduate and big time Jayhawk fan and supporter of the Big 12 updates of the game.  The Bears ran the clock down to like 7 seconds left on the shot clock and the point guard does a one on one and takes a stupid three-point attempt.  I told Grant that it looked like a late game Hofstra possession. With the loss, Baylor now changes places with Texas A&M (who won their first round game) and puts itself squarely on the bubble. The Bears do have a neutral site wins vs. Notre Dame and Winthrop in the Paradise Jam tournament.  The Bears (#42 RPI) though have lost 6 of their last 10 games and their record against the other top five teams in the league is 2-5.  It’s going to be very close for the Bears

Another team that really shot itself in the foot yesterday was UMass.  The Minutemen shot out to a 17 point halftime lead against Charlotte yesterday 36-19. Then the Minutemen allowed the 49ers score 50 second half points as Leemire Goldwire buried UMass with two three pointers at the end of the game.  Now the Minutemen must wait anxiously await their fate.  Their RPI is #43, one behind fellow new bubble member Baylor.  However, unlike Baylor, UMass does not have a signature non-conference win now that Houston and Syracuse are out of the running for at large bids. 

The Pac-10 has three bubble teams, but I have already stated in yesterday’s post that Arizona should be out of the competition.   As my friend Mal Galletta pointed out to me, Arizona is like Josh Booty, “they bite” (the Josh Booty reference was to the former Marlin 3B and LSU quarterback who stunk at two sports and who during a voice mail message to Mal, I commented “He bites”. So it has become a classic with us). 

Now the other two bubble teams are Oregon and Arizona State, both of which lost their quarterfinal round games to Wash State and USC respectively.  Arizona State is probably the team that’s on the outside looking in.  The Sun Devils have one signature non-conference win, a home win over Xavier.  Other than that, their RPI is low at 82 and their record against the top five teams in the Pac-10 is now 3-8 (wins over Oregon, Stanford, and USC, all at home).  They are 5-10 in their last 15 games.  Could be a very long day on Selection Sunday for the Sun Devils.

Oregon is another close call.  They do have a non-conference win at Kansas State; so that’s a good signature win for the Beavers (they also lost at St Mary’s).  They did win six of their last 10 and their RPI is better than Arizona State’s at 56.  However, their record against the top six other Pac-10 teams (including Arizona) is 4-9.  So they barely stand out from the other two bubble teams in their conference.  So they too will be sweating out Selection Sunday.

Villanova made an early comeback in the second half, but the Hoyas were too tough for the Wildcats, defeating them in a quarterfinal game on Thursday 82-63. With that loss, the Wildcats are another team that will be anxiously watching the Selection show on Sunday.  Will the Committee take eight Big East teams?  Nova was .500 in conference but their only signature non-conference wins were neutral site wins vs. George Mason and Temple (don’t laugh, that win vs. the Owls may be huge on selection Sunday now).    The RPI is ok at 52.  We’ll have to see.

Now to Friday’s Bubble games

Ohio State after winning its first round game lost a tough game to Michigan State 67-60.  The Buckeyes were 10-8 in the Big Ten, which is a better conference record than a good number of other power conference bubble teams (Texas A&M, Baylor, Miami Fla, Oregon, ASU to name a few).  Their RPI is respectable at 46 and the SOS is very good at 14.  The problem is their two best non-conference wins were over Syracuse (hell, everyone beats them in non conference) and Florida.  Their conference record vs. the top teams in the Big 12 is 2-6, though two of them were at the end of the season over Purdue and Michigan State.  They were also 4-6 in their last 10.  Another team that will be very anxious come Sunday.

Virginia Tech held Miami Fla to 31 percent shooting from the field and downed the Hurricanes 63-49 and improved their at large bid chances.  The Hokies have a RPI of 59 and a SOS of 52. Their problem is that they have lost against every good non-conference opponent they have faced.  They are also 1-4 against the other top 4 teams in the ACC, with that only win being against Miami today. The Hokies desperately need a semifinal win vs. North Carolina otherwise they could be left out on Selection Sunday.

Miami, despite losing to Va Tech, is in much better shape. In non-conference, the Hurricanes have a road win at Mississippi State, a neutral site win over VCU.  The Hurricanes also have conference wins over Duke, Clemson and Va Tech and also even after today, had won 7 of their last 10 games.  The Canes look to me to be in.  We’ll see.

Now it gets even crazier in the A10 and Tom Kemp is just going nuts over this.  First, St Joseph’s dominates, I mean dominates Xavier, upsetting the Musketeers 61-53.  The Hawks were up 10 at the half, then scored the first five points to go up 15 and never were really threatened again.  St Joe’s now faces Temple for an all A10 Philly final (apropos since Atlantic City, where the A10 tourney is being held, is only one hour away from Philly) as the Owls crushed Charlotte 60-45. 

What does this mean now for the wacky A10?  Well first, St Joe’s is in after being Xavier now twice during the season (despite their only non conf win being over Villanova).  Second, I think Temple replaces UMass as the potential third team from the A10.  Temple’s RPI has improved to 60.  Their problem is that their non-conference record is even weaker than St Joe’s with their best non-conference win a 2-point win over Ohio.  Ugh.

You know, Tom Kemp, you are right.  The A10 is just not that strong as they were a month ago or maybe not that strong to begin with.  If St Joe’s beats Temple, the committee should only take St Joseph’s and Xavier.  VCU, Illinois State, Arizona State and yes even the Josh Booty like Arizona have better cases than Temple and UMass.

Texas A&M has clinched a spot in the tournament after knocking off Michael Beasley and Kansas State.   Finally, I just watched an absolute slugfest in the MAC tournament semifinal game between Kent State and Miami Ohio.  It was like watching football, except for no penalties (in this case fouls) being called.  The officiating like the play was brutal.  Kent State won on a late driving layup by Al Fisher and now faces Akron in the final. 

Truly March Madness Part I (or Holy Cow Thursday Part I)

Truly March Madness Part I

Why did I subtitle it “Holy Cow” Thursday?   As a lot of the results came across the scoreboard on ESPN site, each time I said to myself “HOLY COW!”.  Well, ok, I used something stronger but I can’t repeat that on this blog.   Ok, yesterday had to be truly one of the wildest days in college basketball in recent memory because there were a lot of upsets and a few teams that looked safe on the bubble are not anymore.

Lets break this up into four categories; “Stick A Fork In Them”, “Your Reservation for the Dance Has Been Confirmed”, “Feeling Stronger Everyday” and “Welcome to the Bubble”.  Part I will cover the first three.  Part II, which I hope to have later today, covers the last category, because it needs a whole lot of coverage.

Stick a Fork In Them - Wow, we had some beauts yesterday.  A lot of teams decided to lay an egg at a very inopportune time or met their timely (or untimely) death vs. a superior opponent.

Conference USA - Talk about collectively laying an egg, UAB and Houston were both long shot at large bid teams.  Well both decided to collectively end their fans’ conversations about the teams as the Blazers lost to Tulsa 78-68 in overtime and the Cougars lost to UTEP 79-77.  So thanks to these two teams, Memphis is guaranteed to play the sixth or seventh seed (Tulsa vs UTEP) for the Conference USA Championship on national TV tomorrow (CBS must be sooo proud). 

Maryland - It was really nice of the sixth seeded Terps to end all their talk about an at large bid.  And they did it in style, as Maryland was up early 20-5, shot 52 percent from the field, yet lost to eleven seed BC 71-66 in the first round of the ACC Tournament.  How did they do that? Let’s see; 22 turnovers, shoot 62 percent from the line, let opponent score 46 second half points.  Yeah that will do it. 

SEC - Talk about two teams, desperately needing a win against definitely inferior opponents, and yet, just playing bad..real real bad.   Lets start first with Florida.  I was at a fantasy baseball draft last night (yes its early for these things I know) and this score came across ESPN’s internet scoreboard.  Alabama 23 Florida 5.   HOLY COW!  Then it was..Alabama 38 Florida 14.. HOLY COW!!!!..then it was Alabama 42 Florida 14...HOLY TRIPLE COW!!!!!!

It was just bad.  Now, the amazing thing is Florida came back down 24 in the second half and got the lead down to six, 57-51 with eight and a half minutes left.  But as what happens to teams that make a huge comeback run, they expend a lot of energy and at the end there is nothing left and Alabama pulled away again, winning 80-69 in their first round SEC game. 

This should end the Gators tournament hopes and if the committee needs any further proof, here’s Billy Donovan’s post game comments. “"It's hard for me to be excited going forward because I don't see things getting fixed," Donovan said.  "It's in front of our guys, what it takes to win. For whatever reason, I haven't brought it out in them. They're not committed to it. ... I'm not really excited about seeing this group of guys being sophomores."

Ummm, check please?!

Now Florida was not the only SEC team to shoot themselves in the foot, the arm, the head etc.  Mississippi was being  touted as the “Arkansas” of this season.  This is due to the fact the Razorbacks made the NCAA tournament last year despite being 7-9 in conference because of their strong non-conference schedule.   Well, the now 21-10 Rebels ended that conversation last night as they lost to Georgia 97-95 in overtime in their first round SEC game.  Nothing like letting your opponent, the Bulldogs, shoot 54 percent from the field, when they are last in the SEC in scoring offense and next to last in field goal percentage at 42.8 percent. Always heard people from Mississippi are very hospitable.  But this is taking it to a new level.  Stick a fork in the Rebels, they are very well done.

Now we get to my favorite part of this category, the Pac-10.   Now, I know all of the talk is about how there is a good chance that all three of the following teams, Arizona, Arizona State and Oregon deserve to make the tournament. 

I’m here to tell you otherwise.   The two teams from that group that deserve any bubble consideration is Oregon and Arizona State, and its “consideration” at best for ASU.  Arizona should be gone from any consideration. Why?? Well, first the Beavers and the Sun Devils both swept the Wildcats.  Ugh.  Anyway, I will discuss Oregon and Arizona State later in Part II, “Welcome to Bubbleland”.

As for the Wildcats, they lost in their first round game to Stanford 75-64, leaving the Wildcats 19-14 overall.  The reason they are getting so much pub is that they have the strongest strength of schedule in the country.  But remember one of my other selection committee primer rules; its not strength of schedule that counts, its what you do with that strength of schedule that counts. 

First, the Wildcats finished 8-10 conference, a no-no in my book.  Second, if you subtract their two wins vs. Washington State, the Wildcats are 1-9 vs the rest of the top six teams in the conference.  Queue Bill Walton (“That’s Horrible!)  So they are 3-9 vs the top six teams in the conference.  Yes, they have wins over Texas A&M and UNLV (and yes the win at UNLV was on the road).  And yes, they played Kansas close, but they lost.  So, their record against these teams is 5-10.  They also went 4-7 in their last 11 games.  How can they be put in the tournament?  They can’t.  Please, please stop all this talk about the Wildcats deserving to be in.  They don’t.  Stick a giant fork in them.  They...are...done...crispy done.

Dayton just couldn’t pull off the upset against Xavier.  Still No Chris Wright.  Doesn’t matter. Flyers are done.  Also New Mexico sealed their fate losing to Utah in the first round of the Mountain West.

“Your Reservation for the Dance Has Been Confirmed”

Congrats to Tom Kemp’s favorite team, Kent State.   The Golden Flashes played a team that they had just previously lost to, the Toledo Rockets, and this time Kent State knocked the Rockets out in a flash, winning impressively 77-57.  The Golden Flashes move on to the MAC semifinals and they have now punched their ticket to the dance.  The regular season MAC champs have a very solid resume including wins over St Mary’s, Illinois State and George Mason.  Now Tom, we would like them to beat your alma mater, Miami of Ohio and setup that predicted MAC final vs. Akron.  Personally, I’d like to see the Golden Flashes win the tournament, despite your prediction of Akron, and give themselves a really well deserved strong seed in the tournament.  We’ll see.

As for the Big East, it was all about Holy Cows and teams confirming their reservation for the dance.  The biggest was West Virginia, who so desperately needed a resume solidifying win after being knocked for only beating up on the weaker teams in the Big East.  They got it yesterday as they knocked off #4 seed UConn 78-72 with Joe Alexander scoring 34 points for the Mountaineers.  West Virginia now plays Georgetown in the semifinals.  The #1 seeded Hoyas are the only top four seed left in the Big East Tourney after #2 seed Louisville lost to #7 Pitt and #3 Notre Dame lost to #6 Marquette. 

Feeling Stronger Everyday (someone queue that song by Chicago)

UNLV just got by TCU in the first round of the Mountain West, so that helps them further strengthen their at large bid hopes.  If the final in the Mountain West is UNLV and BYU, that should seal the deal for the Runnin Rebels.  Other teams such as South Alabama and St Mary’s who seem to be on the right side of the bubble (the bubble in group) got help by all the above teams losing and knocking themselves out.  They also got help when Baylor, UMass, Arizona State and Oregon all lost, further weakening their at large resumes.

Texas A&M got stronger, thanks to not only by winning over Iowa State in their first round Big 12 matchup, but by Baylor playing an absolute clunker of a game and losing to Colorado in their first round matchup.  No 12 seeded team in the Big 12 tournament had ever won a first round game vs. the #5 seed, 0-10...until yesterday.  They have no great non conference wins to speak of, but I think the committee will be hard pressed to keep them out and put Baylor in above them after that clunker.   

Kentucky and Arkansas are still somewhat on the bubble, but after Mississippi’s letdown against Georgia and Florida’s implosion to Alabama, the committee will feel more inclined to take most likely both of those teams, giving the SEC five teams.  Both teams can clinch a berth in the tournament with a win today.

Miami Fla with its win yesterday and Maryland's loss looks more like a lock now. 

Moore's Primer for Selection Sunday

Its time for the second annual Moore’s Recommended Primer to the NCAA Selection Committee.  Had the NCAA committee used my primer last season, they wouldn't have been under such scrutiny.  This year they have even more difficult decisions than they did last year, so guys take note of the primer!

I will follow this up with a posting with selecting bubble teams based on this primer.

Here are the 10 rules for the Recommended Primer.

Rule #1 - Do not reward mediocrity in major conferences.   This means if you are an 8-8 or 9-7 team and you lose your first round or quarterfinal games, no matter how tough the league is, you are not a good team and not worthy of a bid to the NCAA tournament.   I am tired of hearing "Well the Big Ten is a really tough league, its unfair to exclude such and such because of it".  Balderdash.  If you are .500 or slightly above .500 and you can't win a first round game in your own conference, what makes you or the committee think you are going to win a first round NCAA tournament game.

Rule #2 - If you are a major conference bubble team, a bad untimely loss at the end of the season equals or outweighs any one good sole win.  Simply put, if you are a bubble team with a lack of big wins over quality opponents, outside of one quality win under your belt, a bad loss at the end of the season in the Committee's eyes should equal or outweigh that sole good win.

Rule #3 - If you are a mid major or non major conference team and you lose in your quarterfinal round, you should be for the most part out of the tournament selection bid.  Mid major teams must get to at least the conference semis to be considered worthy of a tournament selection bid.  If you can't beat a low seed in the quarterfinals of your own tournament, what makes the committee think you can win a first round NCAA tournament game.

Rule #4 - If you are a bubble team, a bad loss to one of your fellow bubble teams during the year may be used against you.  Simply put, when two teams are on relatively equal bubble footing, an earlier game in the year between the two, especially a bad loss at home for one of the teams, can make a difference.

Rule #5 - Do NOT have a bad losing record down the stretch.  The committee looks very closely at how you did the last 9-10 games of the season.   If you are a bubble team and lose a significant majority of your games including a first round or quarterfinal game in your tournament, you should not make the tournament.

Rule #6 - Do NOT have a significantly bad record on the road or at neutral sites. The committee is not very fond of bubble teams that have bad road/neutral site records, i.e. records significantly under .500.   Committee members want to see how you do in hostile environments and a sub .500 road/neutral site record is indicative of a team not worthy of a tournament bid.

Rule #7 - Strength of Schedule doesn't matter.  What you do with your strength of schedule matters - All you hear often, "Yeah we might be .500 in conference, but take a look at our strength of schedule (SOS)."  No that's not what matters.  How you did in those strength of schedule games matters.  If you have the best SOS in the country and you lost just about all of those tough games, you are not a good team and not worthy of consideration. 

Rule #8 - When considering two teams from the same conference for one bubble spot, head to head record should be considered heavily when it favors one team over the other. Every once in a while you have two teams from the same conference fighting for the same bubble spot.  Often the easiest determination is head to head.  If one team won the season series, especially convincingly from the other, that should be a determining factor in the decision.

Rule #9 - If two bubble teams are from the same conference, records against other top teams in the conference should be used as a determining factor.   So for example if there are four quality teams in the conference and a couple of them are on the bubble, compare their records against the other top teams in the conference.

Rule #10 - When all else fails, use the RPI, which the committee is supposed to use as a determining factor in deciding a team's fate.  The RPI takes many of these other rule factors into account and if a league like the Patriot League uses RPI as the tiebreaking rule between teams that split a season series, others should follow suit.

I believe that if a team fails in three of my ten rules, the team should not be allowed into the tournament.

Just a Weird Job by the Committee

Well, the selection committee has given us their brackets.   I give them a lot of credit for keeping out Michigan, Florida State and Cincinatti (though I would have chosen to keep out Seton Hall instead).  They followed my rules for the most part and got Northern Iowa and Bradley right. 

However they got some things very very wrong.  They were very inconsistent on how they decided what teams got in.  For example, they correctly took Northern Iowa over Missouri State because  Northern Iowa won two out of three games including  the quarterfinal matchup between the two teams.  However Hofstra swept the season series from George Mason, including their conference semifinal matchup, yet George Mason is in and Hofstra is not (though I am happy to see a second CAA team in the dance, there should have been three). 

Taking Utah State was a major reach considering they were only 1-2 vs the top 50 in RPI and had an RPI of 16 spots worse than Hofstra and 26 spots worse than Missouri State.  Finally, taking Air Force is very very wrong.  They took a team that lost in the Mountain West quarterfinals to the sub .500 #7 seeded Wyoming.  Also Air Force only played only one team in top 50 RPI (and lost) and had an RPI of 20 spots lower than Hofstra (3-2 vs top 50 rpi) and 30 spots lower than Missouri State (4-8 vs Top 50).

No major prognosticator had Air Force or Utah State in their brackets.  I wonder why...

WHEW!!!!!!!!!!!

Florida up eight with a little over four minutes left allows South Carolina to go on a 8-0 run to tie the game.  But Yannick Noah's son, Joakim hits the tip in with 11.6 seconds left then blocks a potential game tying shot and the Gators win!!!!  Mid major bubble teams are thanking Yannick Noah for bringing Joakim into the world!!

If you were watching CBS' pregame tournament coverage, Craig Littlepage stated that if Florida won, it would open up an at large bid spot.  Wonder who that team was that walked into the door.   All I can say is that Northern Iowa, Bradley, and especially Hofstra better be three of those teams already in the door.  We'll find out in three hours.  Now back to finding my pulse!

Moore's Simple Selection Rules

San Diego State won in overtime, so the last mid major bubble stumbling block is a potentially big one with South Carolina vs. Florida today.  Will the real Florida Gators show up today?

Ok, its time for "Moore's Simple Selection Rules", a set of guidelines that the NCAA tournament selection commitee needs to go by.  I originally had it as philosophies, but that wasn't strong enough. 

Rule #1 - Do not reward mediocrity in major conferences.   This means if you are an 8-8 or 9-7 team and you lose your first round or quarterfinal games, no matter how tough the league is, you are not a good team and not worthy of a bid to the NCAA tournament.   I am tired of hearing "Well the Big Ten is a really tough league, its unfair to exclude such and such because of it".  Balderdash.  If you are .500 or slightly above .500 and you can't win a first round game in your own conference, what makes you or the committee think you are going to win a first round NCAA tournament game.  Those affected by rule #1 - Cincinatti (8-8 in the Big East and lost first game to Syracuse), Michigan (8-8 in the Big Ten, then lost to the second worst seed in the Big Ten, Minnesota),  Florida State (9-7 in the ACC then lost to last place Wake Forest in the first round of the ACC tournament), Seton Hall (9-7 in the Big East, lost badly to #10 seeded Rutgers in first round of Big East tournament), Maryland (8-8 in the ACC and lost badly in the quarterfinals to BC) and Colorado (9-7 in the Big 12, lost by 32 to Texas A&M in the quarterfinals).  None of these teams with the possible exception of Cincinatti should make the tournament.

Rule #2 - If you are a major conference bubble team, a bad untimely loss at the end of the season equals or outweighs any one good sole win.  Simply put, if you are a bubble team with a lack of big wins over quality opponents, outside of one quality win under your belt, a bad loss at the end of the season in the Committee's eyes should equal or outweigh that sole good win.  Those affected by Rule #2 - Florida State - The Seminoles sole big win is over Duke.  However, Florida State lost by 12 in the first round to the last place 3-13 Demon Deacons of Wake Forest, being outscored by 20 in the second half.  If you can't beat the last place team in your conference, you are not going to beat a much better team (say a #5 seed) in the first round of the NCAA tournament.  Another reason for the selection committee to eliminate Florida State. 

There are two addendums to this rule -

Rule -#2A - If you are a mid major or non major conference team and you lose in your quarterfinal round, you should be for the most part out of the tournament selection bid.  Mid major teams must get to at least the conference semis to be considered worthy of a tournament selection bid.  If you can't beat a low seed in the quarterfinals of your own tournament, what makes the committee think you can win a first round NCAA tournament game.  Teams affected by this - Missouri State (lost to Northern Iowa in MVC quarterfinals), Air Force (lost in MWC quarters to Wyoming) and BYU (lost in MVC quarters to Utah). In Missouri State's case, a bad 15 point loss in the quarterfinals to Northern Iowa really hurt.

Rule #2B- If you are a bubble team, a bad loss to one of your fellow bubble teams earlier in the year may be used against you.  Simply put, when two teams are on relatively equal bubble footing, an earlier game in the year between the two, especially a bad loss at home for one of the teams, can make a difference.  Team affected by Rule 2A - George Mason.  The Patriots lost to fellow bubble member Creighton by 20 at George Mason earlier in the year.  The committee will look at that when deciding George Mason's fate, even though the Patriots beat Creighton's fellow MVC member Wichita State at Wichita State later in the year.

Rule #3 - Do NOT have a bad losing record down the stretch.  The committee looks very closely at how you did the last 9-10 games of the season.   If you are a bubble team and lose a significant majority of your games including a first round or quarterfinal game in your tournament, you should not make the tournament.  Teams affected by Rule #3 - Michigan, Maryland, and Colorado.  Michigan lost seven of their last nine games including the loss to Minnesota in the first round.  Maryland lost seven of their last twelve, including the pounding at the hands of BC.  Colorado also lost seven of their last twelve including the 32 point shellacking by Texas A&M.   Second reason to eliminate these three teams.

Rule #4 - Do NOT have a significantly bad record on the road. The commitee is not very fond of bubble teams that have bad road records, ie records significantly under .500.  Neutral sites do not count.  Committee members want to see how you do in hostile environments and a sub .500 road record is indicative of a team not worthy of a tournament bid. Teams affected by Rule #4 - What a shock. Michigan (2-6 on the road in the Big 10), Maryland (2-8 on the road), and Colorado (4-7 on the road). 

Rule #5 - Strength of Schedule doesn't matter.  What you do with your strength of schedule matters - All you hear often, "Yeah we might be .500, but take a look at our strength of schedule (sos)."  No that's not what matters.  How you did in those strength of schedule games matters.  If you have the best sos in the country and you lost just about all of those tough games, you are not a good team and not worthy of consideration.  Teams Affected by This - Maryland, Cincinatti, and Missouri State.  Hey Maryland, you had the #11 ranked SOS in the country.  What did you do with it.  Go 2-7 vs teams in the top 50 RPI.  Cincinatti and Missouri State, you weren't much better, 4-8 vs the Top 50 RPI.

Rule #6 -  When considering two teams from the same conference for one bubble spot, head to head record should be considered heavily when it favors one team over the other. Every once in a while you have two teams from the same conference fighting for the same bubble spot.  Often the easiest determination is head to head.  If one team won the season series, especially convincingly from the other, that should be a determining factor in the decision.  Teams Affected by This - George Mason and Missouri State.  Hofstra, another bubble team, swept George Mason in their season series, including a nine point win in the CAA tournament semifinals.   Northern Iowa, another MVC team on the bubble, took two out of three from Missouri State, including a 15 point win in the MVC quarterfinals. 

Rule #7 - The Bubble Team Suspended Player Rule - Unfortunately this is one the committee has to deal with.  If a bubble team has one of their top players suspended for the first round of a game, the committee must decide whether that team would have a good showing in the first round of the NCAA tournament or if another team would be a better choice.  Team affected by this -  Sadly this affects George Mason due to Tony Skinn's suspension.  Sorry Andy Glockner, its not outrageous to use this as a determining factor.  The committee has to put out the best 34 at large teams and if one bubble team is without one of its best players, the committee has a concern that the other team it is playing will have an unfair advantage.  Skinn is one of the three best players on a relatively thin Patriots team.  This will be a determining factor in its fate.

Rule #8 - If you are affected by two or more of the previous rules, you should be basically eliminated from tournament bid consideration unless no other worthy bubble teams are left.  Teams affected by this - Plenty!   Michigan, Cincinatti, Florida State, Maryland, Michigan, Missouri State and George Mason.  Sorry guys, for the most part, you don't belong in the dance before other bubble teams like Northern Iowa, Bradley and Hofstra to name three.  The only teams if i am the committee that I would consider after taking those three teams I mentioned, are Missouri State, Cincinatti and George Mason in that order.

Rule #9 - When all else fails, use the RPI, which the committee is supposed to use as a determining  factor in deciding a team's fate.  Remember, NCAA. you changed the RPI to give the mid majors who can't schedule major conference teams in home to home series or even road series  a chance to compete for a bid.  When teams like Northern Iowa (RPI 23), Hofstra (RPI30) or Bradley (RPI 35) all have significantly better RPIs than Michigan (RPI 46), Seton Hall (RPI 57) or Florida State (RPI 60) and were not affected by any of my eight other rules, you simply can not in good conscience keep those three mid major bubble teams out of the NCAA tournament.  Simply can not. 

Hopefully South Carolina loses and forces the committee to make the correct choices. We'll see.  Just follow the rules, guys.

Only One Real Stumbling Block Remains

With Wake Forest and Nebraska losing today and Nevada just surviving in OT, defeating Utah State 70-63, there is only one remaining stumbling block left...South Carolina.  Mid major bubble teams are going to be big Florida Gator fans tomorrow when Florida takes on the Gamecocks for the SEC championship.  Florida lost twice to South Carolina during the season, so revenge will be a motivating factor for the Gators, plus the Gamecocks will be playing their fourth game in four days, so fatigue will be an issue.

San Diego State is having a difficult time with Wyoming, but as I said before, I don't think this game matters.  If San Diego State should somehow lose this game, I think the committee would have a very difficult time justifying giving an at large to a team that lost to the sub .500 #7 seed in the tournament final, plus San Diego State's RPI is 57.  Not going to happen.

Go Gators!

Villanova in Better Shape, "Wakeing Up" and more

Not only did Villanova potentially lose a #1 seed in the tournament by losing to Pitt badly 68-54, it seemed as they also had lost star guard Allen Ray to an eye injury after being inadvertently poked in the eye by Pitt's Carl Krauser (who Villanova coach Jay Wright actually had recruited when he was still coaching for Hofstra).  Ray was taken to a local hospital, however, the injury was described as a soft tissue injury.  Ray was scheduled to be released and return today to Villanova.  It is possible that he will be ready for their first round NCAA tournament game.

Wake is "Wakeing Up".  The Demon Deacons, ranked in the beginning of the season #15 have endured a nightmare season.  Despite having a lot of starting talent with Justin Gray, Trent Strickland, Eric Williams, and Chris Ellis, the Demon Deacons finished last in the ACC with a 3-13 record.  But they have risen from the grave.  In the ACC first round, they most likely separated Florida State from a NCAA tournament bid by outscoring the Seminoles by twenty points in the second half enroute to a 78-66 win.  Then facing #22 NC State, Wake was trailing 8-7 before proceeding to go on a 25-6 run to go up 32-14 and never looked back.  Wake now faces top seeded Duke in the semis.  The question is does Wake have enough depth to win their third game in three days.  Mid major bubble teams are hoping the answer is no.

If you were a Georgetown Hoya fan and watched the end of the game last night with Syracuse, wouldn't a trip to the dentist for root canal surgery have been more pleasurable.  I would think so.  Georgetown, up 15 at half proceeded to let Syracuse back in the game, thanks to 9 of 17 missed foul shots, including missing 5 of their last 6 in the last 4:17 of the game.  Then ahead 57-53, Georgetown allowed Gerry McNamara an open look at a three, which of course "Mr Not Overrated" made again with 48 seconds left to bring the Orange within one.  Then the Hoyas had an absolutely horrid possession letting the clock run down, then a squirrel on the highway lane drive caused Ashtanti Cook to get triple teamed.  Cook would then throw a bad crosscourt pass that Demetrius Nichols stole.  Nichols fed McNamara who fed Eric Devendorf for a layup and a Syracuse lead 58-57.  Then the icing on the cake, McNamara forced Cook to bobble the ball and travel.  Ball game.   It was a great comeback by the Orange, but one that the Hoyas allowed to happen. 

Today, its hoping that Nevada, San Diego State, Duke, and believe it or not, Kentucky all win. 

Tomorrow, its Moore's Simple Selection Philosophies.

Mid Major Bubble Checklist Going Well So Far..

In my previous posting, I had a mid major bubble wish checklist.  Lets see how that is working out.

1) BC to beat Maryland.  Check.  BC beat Maryland by 14, 80-66 and it was never close.  BC was up by as many as 24 and Maryland could only cut the lead down to the final margin.  Moore common sense  tells me that Maryland wouldn't finish in the top four in the MVC with their terrible defense, their 2-8 road record and their 2-7 record vs the top 50 RPI (yes that was a shot at Jimmy Dykes for saying all night during the game that "Dykes common sense" says Maryland would finish in the top 2 of the MVC).  Gary Williams, enjoy the NIT.

2) Bucknell beats Holy Cross. Check.  Bucknell again shows why they are a dangerous team in the tourney as they pulled away from a scrappy Holy Cross team.  Syracuse's and St Joe's runs in the tournament (both teams Bucknell beat) make Bucknell even more impressive.

3) Nevada wins today against New Mexico State.  Still to be determined.  Nevada is up early on New Mexico State 24-13 with 10:00 left in the first half. 

4) Texas A&M to defeat Colorado.  Check. More like a beatdown as the Aggies won by 33, 86-53.  Colorado joins Maryland in NIT land.

5) Memphis and UAB to make the Conf USA final. Check.  UAB tried their best to blow the game, fouling UTEP's Kevin Henderson on a three point shot attempt with UAB ahead 62-59 with 4 seconds left.  But Henderson missed the first free throw, hit the second, but the tip in on his deliberate missed third attempt missed and UAB survived.  Meanwhile Memphis won easily.

6) San Diego State wins their WAC semfinal game tonight. Check.   The Aztecs held onto beat UNLV 63-60 and now face the winner of Wyoming-Utah.  Not as worried as much about this, but would like to see San Diego State win the tournament.  They have been the best WAC team all year.

Numbers 7-9 are all dependent upon the media.  Iowa beating Minnesota ends any talk about how tough the Gophers are (that talk coming from Michigan boosters only).  Florida State seems to be toast and Seton Hall looks to be on the bubble now.

There are a few more obstacles left.  Nevada must still win tonight and tomorrow night against Utah State, the second best team in the WAC.  Also South Carolina's, Wake Forest's and now potentially Oregon's miracle runs must all be derailed tomorrow.    Oregon is up 22-10 with 11:46 left in the first half.  A loss by California could put them back on the bubble.

42 hours left till selection time.  Its going to be a nerve wracking 42 hours.

Update - Nevada won by 11 and Cal won in double OT.  Only a few stumbling blocks left.