Mid Major Hoops

Bracket Buster Thoughts from Yesterday and Wright State - Illinois State preview

First Tom Kemp has a right to be a very happy man (and by the way Tom, nice posting below!).  Kent State played really well last night and Al Fisher was truly outstanding.  If they somehow don’t win the MAC conference tournament (and as long as they don’t get knocked out in the quarters which is one of my selection primer rules), they deserve an at large bid to the tournament.  That’s a good St Mary’s team they beat.

And is Drake for real or what?  Wow, what a great game with Butler.  Forget Tennessee - Memphis, which was a really good game, but this was better.  That was Sweet Sixteen tournament quality play yesterday.  What a fun game to watch.

It was a really great day for watching Bracketbuster games.  Really really great.  There was the marquis matchup of Drake and Butler living up to the hype and going down to the wire which included one of the best highlight plays of the season.  VCU on the road holding off a game Akron team.  Ohio was down 28-11 to George Mason only to outscore the Patriots 58-29 the rest of the way to get a comeback win.  Southern Illinois finally looked like the team everyone thought they would be in the beginning of the year and just pasted a decent Nevada team.  A young Creighton team pulled off the upset of Oral Roberts on a three pointer by Booker Woodfox (what a great name) with 26 seconds left.  Miami of Ohio and Valpo let it all hang out on the court and went DOUBLE overtime before the Crusaders edged the Redhawks.   Then finally, Kent State, so desperately needing a win to get recognition for an at large NCAA berth gets a outstanding performance from Al Fisher, a guard that was given a scholarship with the coaches never having seen him play and downs #20 St Mary’s on their home court (which was their first home loss of the season).

And I was at Iona to watch Hofstra win convincingly in their non televised Bracketbuster game vs Iona 81-63.  Charles Jenkins, the best freshman in the CAA, had 28 points and Antoine Agudio had 24 points as the Pride shot 55 percent from the field.  Hofstra has now won four of its last five games and if Jenkins can continue hitting the three pointer as he did yesterday, the Pride will be awfully dangerous come tournament time in the CAA.

Here’s some quick thoughts.

Best Mid Major Conference - Has to be the Missouri Valley going four for four on televised games as Drake, Illinois State, Creighton and Bradley all won.  Drake clinched its at large berth with the impressive win at Butler.  Southern Illinois absolutely hammered Nevada and Bradley had a solid win over UW Milwaukee.  The best win may have been Creighton’s, whose young team came to play against a solid Oral Roberts squad.  Their win effectively ended the Golden Eagles slim chances at an large bid.

Runner-up in the Category - The MAAC - Siena absolutely blew out Boise State, Rider stunned Cal State Northridge on their home court and Niagara had a solid win on the road at Appalachian State.  Loyola Maryland, also tied for first in the MAAC with Siena, Rider and Niagara also won beating UC Davis and Fairfield won at Drexel.  Of the top 6 teams in the MAAC, only Marist lost, getting thumped by Cleveland State. 

Best Guard Tandem - Drake’s Leonard Houston and Josh Young.   Houston and Young were playing the more ballyhooed tandem of Mike Green and AJ Graves and simply played better.  In fact Young frustrated Mike Green so much, Green fouled out at the end of the game on a critical play that resulted in Young getting three free throw attempts.  Young had 25 points and Houston added 16 to lead the Bulldogs to victory.

Best Big Man Tandem - Ohio’s Leon Williams and Jerome Tillman combined for 26 points and 16 rebounds and held Patriots star Will Thomas to 9 points on only 3 of 6 field goal attempts as the Bobcats came back and beat the Patriots.  Bubba Walther will get the lionshare of the praise with his 21 points but it was Tillman and Williams keeping down Thomas that made the difference.

Most Underrated Big Man - Drake’s Jonathan Cox.   A lot of the talk before the Drake Butler game was how Drake had no answer for Butler freshman forward Matt Howard.  Howard did have a good game with 16 points and 9 rebounds, but Drake’s Cox had 11 points and 11 rebounds as Drake outrebounded Butler 31 -25.  Cox also hit all three of his free throw attempts as Drake shot 18 of 20 from the line.

Best Single Game Performance - Al Fisher of Kent State.   Fisher had a terrific game scoring 28 points and easily outplaying the more hyped Patrick Mills of Saint Mary’s.  Fisher has established himself as one of the best mid major guards in the country averaging 21 points per game during the Golden Flashes six game winning streak.  Not bad for a player who was given a sight unseen scholarship by Kent State.

Best Single Game Performance Runner-up - Diamon Sampson in the same game.  Dominant performance with 24 points ,15 rebounds, 4 assists and 3 blocks  kept the Gaels in the game despite the loss to Omar Samhan to injury and the awful performance by Patrick Mills.  Sampson nearly averages a double double a game for the Gaels.

Most Underrated Team in the Bracket Busters - Though Kent State finally got the props given to it with their win last night, the award has to go to Siena, for thoroughly crushing first place WAC Boise State 94-70.  Siena is tied for first in the MAAC and has a win over Stanford this year and barely lost to Syracuse and St Joe’s.  The Saints did it by forcing 20 turnovers, thus getting 17 more shot attempts, outrebounding the Broncos 39-33 and shooting 47 percent from the field.

Most Overrated Team in the Bracket Busters - George Mason.  The enigma that is George Mason reared its ugly head yesterday.  Up 28-11 late in the first half, the Patriots got outscored by 29 points the rest of the way.  They simply can’t play consistently and that’s been the case all year.  Beat Kansas State and Dayton.  Lose to Georgia State, East Carolina and Delaware.  Go up 17 points in a game, lose by 12 in the same game.  They don’t know how to get the ball to their best player Will Thomas and often don’t even try.   But give Williams and Tillman on Ohio credit.  They did a great job on Thomas.

Best Play of the Bracket Busters Weekend - Even with one game left, I can’t see any play today outshining the alley oop play from Klayton Korver to Leonard Houston in the Drake game.  What a great catch and finish by Houston.   Simply awesome.

Teams that Clinched Their Births in the Dance - Drake and Kent State.  The Bulldogs played a magnificent game yesterday on the road.   But Kent State’s performance was equally impressive giving St Mary’s their first loss at home this year.  And remember, St Mary’s beat Drake at home earlier in the season, so the Golden Flashes win may even be more impressive.

Teams that are Still Ok But Hurt Their Seeding - Butler and St Mary’s.   Butler did all they could but Drake was the better team.  Thus these Bulldogs may go from a #5 seed to a #7 seed now.  St Mary’s seed will drop a little, but I think the NCAA committee may be lenient on them since star forward Omar Samhan was hurt early on.   The key though is how hurt is Samhan and how long is he out.

Stick a Fork in Their At Large Hopes  - Oral Roberts and George Mason.  Tough loss by the Golden Eagles.  They were undermined by poor three point shooting and a game Bluejays squad.  Though give Ohio a lot of credit for coming back, George Mason laid an egg pure and simple.

“We Won, But I Don’t Know Where That Leaves Us” - VCU and Davidson- VCU did what it had to, winning yesterday, but they didn’t improve their bubble chances beating the fourth best MAC team (with Kent State, Ohio and Western Michigan being better and all of them winning yesterday by the way).  With Maryland and Houston looking weaker by the day, and a RPI of only 62, the Rams most likely have to win the CAA tournament to get in.

Davidson looked more impressive in their win over Winthrop, but with a RPI of 63, and Winthrop not as strong as an opponent as they would have been last year, the Wildcats are tenuously on the bubble as far as an at large bid.  Hopefully the NCAA committee members watched the performance and also realize that Winthrop had only lost twice at home in their last 48 games, and that Winthrop may be in the NCAA tournament for the fourth straight year.  Hopefully Davidson wins the Southern tournament and the point is moot.

Now onto the final Bracket Buster game of the weekend.

Wright State vs Illinois State -   This game is going to be marred by the fact that the Redbirds’s third  leading scorer guard Dom Johnson is out indefinitely after undergoing a tonsillectomy. Thus the Redbirds will have to rely more on guard Osiris Eldridge and forward Anthony Slack.  This plays “wright” into the hands of the Raiders, the best defensive team that the Redbirds will face this side of Southern Illinois.

Illinois State (19-8, 11-5 MVC) has their best record in a long time under first year coach Tim Jankovich, a former assistant for Bill Self at Kansas and Illinois.  The Redbirds pride themselves on being a deep squad, with nine players averaging 12 minutes or more a game.  Led by Eldridge, who averages 16 points and 5.5 rebounds a game (pretty good for a 6 foot 3 guard), the Redbirds are in second place in the Missouri Valley, a conference that has already seen the other top four teams in conference win their Bracket Buster games.  The Redbirds are a balanced team; they are first in the Missouri Valley in field goal percentage at 46.5 percent, second in three point field goal percentage at 38.4 percent, yet second in the MVC in scoring defense and second in the MVC in field goal percentage defense at 40.6 percent.  They are also second in assists, second in blocked shots and second in turnover/assist ratio. 

The Redbirds have struggled as of late, only winning six of their last 10 games in conference.  Their RPI which was in the top 50 for most of the year, has dropped to #51.  Their best non conference win is over Cincinnati, which has a RPI of 70 (they have lost to Kent State and Indiana as well).   Still second place in the Missouri Valley, a conference with a RPI ranking of 8, a history of multiple NCAA tournament bids in the past several years, plus the excellent MVC  showing in the Bracket Buster Series, gives lots of credence to the success the Redbirds have had this year.

This is coach Brad Brownell’s second year at Wright State (20-6, 12-4 Horizon) and for the second year in a row, the Raiders have 20 wins.  In his first season of coaching, all Brownell did was take a bottom feeder Horizon team and take them to the Horizon regular season championship then beat Butler in the tournament championship game.  This year, again they have beaten Butler in conference play and are second in the conference with a 12-4 record.  They are the masters of winning the close game.  The Raiders have won eleven straight games, but in their last seven games, the Raiders have not scored more than 59 points, with six of those games decided by six points or less.  In fact the Raiders have won 14 games this year by six points or less.

The Raiders are led by guards Vaughan Duggins and Todd Brown, who have combined for 27.5 points 7 rebounds and 5 assists a game.  Duggins and Brown take most of the shots as each as 100 field goal attempts more than their third leading scorer Scottie Wilson.  However, the Raiders trademark is their defense.  Wright State is second in scoring defense in the Horizon at 60.3 points per game, first in field goal percentage defense at 41 percent, second in rebounding margin,

Analysis - Especially with Dom Johnson out, this is going to be a close, low scoring game.  Both teams play excellent defense and it will be executing the little things that will decide this game.  The stat that may tell the difference in this game could be free throw shooting.  Though Wright State is not great at 68 percent shooting, they are better than the Redbirds who are last in the Missouri Valley in free throw shooting at 63 percent.  Given that and the Raiders track record for winning close games, look for Wright State to end the perfect run the top teams in the Missouri Valley have had in the Bracket Busters series this weekend.  Wright State wins 58-56.

Bracket Buster Predictions Part III

Kent State vs. Saint Mary’s.   - If Oral Roberts is the Rodney Dangerfield of the Mid Majors then Kent State is the JAG of the Mid Majors.  You remember the TV show JAG.  It was on TV from 1995-2005, ten years, which is a very long time for a TV show.  It actually won several Emmys and ASCAP awards and always had a good following, but it never got the respect it deserved.  Well, Kent State (22-5, 11-2 MAC) is the same way.  This season marks the tenth straight season that the Golden Flashes have won 20 games, and this might be perhaps the best team since the 2001-02 team that made the Elite 8 with Antonio Gates and Trevor Huffman (the 2005-06 squad made the NCAA tournament and lost to Pittsburgh in the first round).  Yet when you hear about the top mid major schools, you hear about Butler, Southern Illinois, Gonzaga, Creighton and in recent years, VCU, and George Mason but not Kent State.  Yours truly is one of those guilty parties.  Well, Kent State has been more consistent then all of them.

Kent State has had a terrific year, going 22-5, with wins over Illinois State (neutral site), George Mason by 18 at home, Cleveland State by 15 at home, and Saint Louis by 41 at home.  They also have lost to Xavier(game was closer than the final score) and to North Carolina (that game was indicative of the 29 point margin).  Al Fisher and Mike Scott are the David James Elliott and Catherine Bell of Kent State (I must profess I am a big fan of Catherine Bell so I had to say that line).  Fisher averages 14 points per game and Scott averages 13 points per game.  The Golden Flashes have two other double digit scorers in Haminn Quaintance and Chris Singletary, each averaging 10 points per game.  They have nine players who average double digits in playing minutes, so you can say they have a nice ensemble cast..like JAG.   

St Mary’s (23-3, 10-1 WCC)  is the “Pushing Daisies” of this mid major season.  They hit the ground running knocking off Drake (though no one realized how good Drake was at the time), Oregon, Seton Hall and San Diego State before losing their first game at Southern Illinois.  They rebounded to win at Ohio before losing at Texas.  They also have a home win over Gonzaga and are tied with the Zags for first place in the West Coast Conference. 

The Gaels like to score points and average 78 points per game.  They are led by freshman sensation guard Patti Mills, part of their Australian pipeline (along with forward Lucas Walker), who averages 15 points per game.  The Gaels also have a dual inside threat with Diamon Simpson and Omar Samhan who combined average 24 points and 17 rebounds a game.  The Gaels have 8 players who average 15 minutes or more per game, so depth is not an issue.

Analysis - This is going to be a contrast in styles.  Kent State is the second in the MAC in scoring defense at 62.7 points per game, third in field goal defense at 41.7 percent, second in steals and second in blocked shots.   However, Kent State is also very effective on offense.  They lead the MAC in assists per game at 14.52, are first in the league in field goal percentage at 47 percent, and second in three point field goal percentage at 36.6 percent. 

The Gaels, are first in the WCC in scoring offense, first in field goal percentage at 48.8 percent, third in three point field goal percentage at 37 percent, first in three point field goal attempts and first three point field goal attempts, first in rebounding offense, first in assists and first in assist/turnover margin.  However Saint Mary’s is underrated on defense.  They are first in blocked shots, second in defensive rebounds, first in three point field goal percentage defense at 29.5 percent (that’s an impressive number), and third in steals.

Its going to be interesting to see how Kent State fares in such a loud atmosphere such as the McKeon Pavilion which they say seats 3500 but I think that’s being kind.   The Golden Flashes will work the ball around patiently to find the open shot and try to limit the Gaels’ possessions.  If they end up in an up and down game, it will be a long night for Kent State.  If Saint Mary’s has one weakness, they are next to last in the West Coast in free throw shooting percentage at 66.7 percent (Kent State is third in the MAC at 71.6 percent).  This may hurt them if the game is close.

Well Tom Kemp, this is the game you want previewed the most, but alas, I think McKeon Pavilion, the inside play of Simpson and Samhan, the guard play of Patrick Mills and the fact that Kent State has struggled somewhat on the road will be too much for Fisher, Walker and the rest of the Golden Flashes.  The “Pushing Daisies” Gaels will beat the “JAG” Golden Flashes 73-70 in a very close game.   However, if Kent State wins this game, you will be hearing from me tomorrow about how the Golden Flashes deserve an at large bid, because they will have earned it.

I will have the Wright State - Illinois State game tomorrow.   

Also, there are several other games today - Marist at Cleveland State, Wisconsin-Milwaukee at Bradley, Siena at Boise State, Rider at Cal State Northridge, Miami (Ohio) at Valparaiso that I just don’t have time to preview. So here go my quick predictions.  As much as I am happy for the MAAC getting three TV games, unfortunately, I don’t see them winning any of their games (Siena though has the best chance here).  I like Cleveland State, Bradley, Boise State in a close win over Siena, Cal State Northridge and Miami of Ohio. 

Bracket Buster Part II

Before I get into the second part of my Bracket Buster analysis and predictions, I wanted to talk about last night’s two games.

First, if the NCAA tournament committee members were watching, they had to be really impressed with Davidson, who downed Winthrop 60-47.   Winthrop did a good job of holding Davidson to nearly 20 points under their season average and they really did a great job of shutting down Stephen Curry, holding him to 12 points, nearly 14 under his season average.  However, Davidson not only played Winthrop’s style of basketball last night, they did it better.  They played great, stifling defense, defense I didn’t know they were capable of.  They held Winthrop to 30 percent shooting from the floor.  The Wildcats contested every Eagle shot and the Eagles had an incredibly hard time inbounding the ball.   And the Wildcats proved that they are not a one man team.  Jason Richards had a big game with 21 points and 5 assists, shooting 5 of 11 from three.

Winthrop may not be as good as last year’s sterling team, but they are still first in the Big South and had only lost 2 games in their last 48 home contests until last night.  To win impressively in front of a sold out crowd against a team quite possibly making the NCAA tournament for the fourth year in a row, that’s impressive and that should help out Davidson with their at large resume. 

In the other game, Utah State really dominated inside and downed UC Santa Barbara 72-59. Again a star guard was held in check by the opponent but the team overcame that.  Utah State’s Jaycee Carroll was held to 15 points (7 under his average) on 5 of 13 shooting, but Tai Wesley had 24 points and 9 rebounds while Gary Wilkinson had 14 points and 12 rebounds for the Aggies.  The Aggies outrebounded the Gauchos 40-26 and “held” the Gauchos to 33 percent shooting from the floor.  I say “held” because often the Gauchos were very impatient and often took very wild low percentage shots.  Even when they were good shots, the Gauchos seemed rushed and not set.  I was not impressed with Gauchos leading scorer Alex Harris who shot 8 of 23 from the field, often he would take really wild shots.   Harris and James Powell each had 20 points.  But give credit to the Aggies.  With Carroll struggling early, the Aggies worked it inside a lot to Wesley and Wilkinson and really took advantage of their size differential.  The Aggies also shot 16 of 21 from the line.   If Utah State can continue to work the ball inside, they could be a tough out in the WAC tournament.

Ok now on to the second round of Bracket Buster projections. I will have the final two, Kent State vs St Mary’s and Wright State vs. Illinois State later this morning.

Creighton vs. Oral Roberts - Creighton goes on the road to the meet the Rodney Dangerfields of the Mid Majors, Summit Conference leading Oral Roberts. 

The Bluejays (18-9, 9-7 MVC) started off strong going 9-1 with wins over St Joseph’s and DePaul (both games at home).  Then conference play started and the Bluejays lost their first two games, then won their next five, then lost their next three, then won their next three, then lost their next two before crushing Missouri State this week at home.  Get the picture?  Yes, they are a very young team and their play shows that.  Senior Dane Watts is one of two senior starters and is the second leading scorer at 11.4 points per game.  Freshman P’Allen Stinnett leads the Bluejays at 12 points per game.  He is however very inconsistent and prone to fouls.  And yes, they have a Korver, freshman Kaleb Korver, who averages a little more than 2 points per game.  The Bluejays have 10 players who play 10 minutes or more a game and only 3 of those players are seniors.

Oral Roberts (20-6, 15-1 Summit) has the #46 RPI in the country and has played the likes of Texas, Arkansas, Texas A&M and Utah State.  Unfortunately, those were four of their six losses.  Still the Golden Eagles are poised to go to their third  straight NCAA tournament appearance if they win the Summit tournament championship.  Their at large hopes are faint but a win over Creighton wouldn’t hurt.  The Golden Eagles are a balanced club, with four players averaging in double figures led by junior guard Robert Jarvis.  Unlike the Bluejays, the Golden Eagles are a senior laden club with the three other double digit scorers being seniors; forwards Moses Ehambe and Shawn King and guard Adam Liberty.   

Analysis - Both teams average 70 points per game. Creighton is second in the Missouri Valley in Field Goal Percentage at 45.4 percent, fourth in three point shooting at 38 percent and third in assists.  The Bluejays are also second in rebounding defense, third in field goal percentage defense at 41.4 percent, and first in steals, averaging over 8 a game.  Oral Roberts is first in the Summit in scoring defense, first in field goal percentage defense,  first in three point field goal percentage defense and first in blocked shots.

Basically what to look for is a very defensive oriented game, probably in the low 60's.  All things considered, Oral Roberts is a more experienced team playing at home.  Those two factors will be the difference as the Golden Eagles down the Bluejays 65-60.

Nevada at Southern Illinois - This would have been a marquis matchup last year with Nevada with Ramon Sessions, Nick Fazekas and Marcellus Kemp taking on Randal Falker, Tony Young and Jamal Tatum.   Its still a good game this year with two great coaches Mark Cox and Chris Lowery walking the sidelines, but only Kemp and Falker remain for their respective clubs. 

Nevada (17-9, 9-4 WAC) started off the season 8-6 but has won 9 of their last 12.   However they have not won any non conference game of significance. Kemp has led the way for the Wolfpack averaging 20 points a game.  Three other Wolfpack players average double figures including freshman sensation JaVale McGee who averages 13 points 7 rebounds and nearly 3 blocks a game.

Southern Illinois (15-12, 10-6 MVC) won their first three games, including an impressive two wins over Chattanooga and Mississippi State at the Anaheim Classic.  Then the Salukis fell on hard times, losing nine of their next thirteen games, despite one of their wins being an impressive home win over St Mary’s.  The Salukis though have fought back in conference and have won their last 3 games including handing Drake its first conference loss. The Salukis are led by the trio of Randal Falker, Matt Shaw and Brian Mullins who combine for 35 points, 16 rebounds and nearly 8 assists a game.

Analysis - The Wolfpack average 75 points per game and are fourth in the WAC in field goal percentage and fourth in three point field goal percentage.  They are a better defensive team than given credit and are second in field goal percentage defense and first in the WAC in blocks. 

As always, the Salukis are about defense.  They are second in the MVC in scoring defense, second in field goal percentage defense, first in three point field goal percentage defense.  An interesting offensive stat though is the Salukis are second in the MVC in assists.

The Wolfpack’s strength, three point shooting goes up against the Salukis vaunted three point field goal defense.  Its going to be a low scoring game as both teams play good defense.  The Salukis have the home crowd in Carbondale, which can be so loud, ESPN writer Kyle Whelliston suffered a headache from the crowd noise when he covered a game there this season.  The Salukis D and the loud crowd make the difference, SIU wins 61-54. 

Drake vs. Butler - This is one of two games that everyone is looking forward to on Bracketbuster Saturday.   #8 Butler, the highest ranked mid major in the country vs. #18 Drake, the team that has already clinched first place in the MVC.  Bulldogs vs. Bulldogs.  Both teams play stifling defense, have excellent ball movement and love shooting the three.  I mean really love shooting the three. .

Drake was picked to finish ninth in the preseason in the MVC.  What the rest of the Missouri Valley didn’t know was that Drake was  its motion offense and take advantage of every opportunity given to them.   The Bulldogs are first in the Missouri Valley in scoring offense at 72 points per game, fourth in field goal percentage and in my favorite category, first in free throw shooting percentage.  But they are not just an offensive team.  The Bulldogs are second in the Missouri Valley in rebounding margin, second in the Missouri Valley in steals and first in the Missouri Valley in turnover margin.   The last category to me speaks volumes of Drake.  I saw this firsthand watching the game online at Creighton.  Every mistake made by the Bluejays was taken advantage of by the Bulldogs and they capitalized on them.   The Bluejay announcers were stating how lucky Drake was often during the game.  Its not luck, its opportunistic.

Drake is led by guard Josh Young who averages 16 points per game.  Leonard Houston adds 14 per game for the Bulldogs.  The Bulldogs starting five is rounded out by Jonathan Cox (11 points per game), Kyle Korver (9) - yes there has to be a Korver on the Bulldogs the way they play and Adam Emmencker. 

Unlike Drake, Butler had lofty expectations to meet at the beginning of the season.  The Bulldogs were ranked in the top 25 and were picked to win the Horizon League.  So far, they have met expectations.  The Bulldogs have defeated Virginia Tech and Texas Tech on neutral sites, Ohio State, Bradley  and Florida State at home and Southern Illinois at Carbondale.  The Bulldogs do it with defense as they are first in the Horizon in scoring defense, second in three point field goal percentage defense, second in steals and in that ever so important category,  first in turnover margin.  Their offense is not bad either as they are third in the Horizon in field goal percentage at 45 percent and of course, they are tied for first in free throw shooting percentage. 

These Bulldogs are also a balanced scoring team with four starters in double figures, led by all Horizon League stat machine Mike Green.  Green averages 14.7 points per game, 6 rebounds a game, 4.9 assists per game and 1.5 steals per game.   AJ Graves, though having a down shooting year shooting only 37 percent a game, averages nearly 14 points per game.  Then there is the frontcourt duo of Matt Howard (12.8 points and 5.7 rebounds per game) and Pete Campbell (11 points per game).

Analysis -  Its basically Butler vs. Butler Lite.  Both teams are so similar in style of play, its scary.  Two incredibly opportunistic teams.  What will be interesting to see is how Green and Graves play against Young and Houston, two of the more athletic guards Butler has seen all year.  The X factor may be the inside game of Matt Howard.  I think Drake is going to have a difficult time contending with him.

Drake needs this game in the worst way now after losing two of their last three games, including blow a late nine point lead at home to Bradley.  Drake has not beaten a real quality team all year (their best non conference game was a six point loss at St Mary’s).  Drake needs this to assure the NCAA tournament committee that they are a legitimate team.  A good showing against Butler will help, but a win is really important.

As for Butler, this game is important to them too, but its not dire, as in Drake’s case.  But Butler wants to prove to all the bracketologists that they are worthy of a top 4 seed in the tournament.  Right now, they are ranked eighth, but most tournament bracket predictions have them as a five seed, which is an insult.  The Bulldogs may see this as their only chance to impress the committee.

As I said, I think the difference will be forward Matt Howard.  The one thing Drake lacks is an inside presence and Butler has that in Howard.  He will keep the Drake defense honest and that may be the difference here.  Otherwise, both teams neutralize each other with their defensive styles, though Butler I think will want to keep this in the low sixties because the higher the point total the more it favors Drake.  It also helps that Butler is playing at home in the Hinkle Fieldhouse.  It will be loud there.  Butler will win this game 63-58.

Bracket Buster Preview Part I

Well BracketBuster weekend is upon us now and its starts with two games tonight, six tomorrow and one on Sunday.  Of these nine games, there are two games with major NCAA tournament implications (Drake vs. Butler and Kent State vs. St. Mary’s), four with lesser NCAA tournament implications but still of importance (Davidson vs. Winthrop, VCU vs Akron, Creighton vs. Oral Roberts and Wright State vs. Illinois State).  Then there are eight games where an  NCAA tournament at large bid  is a dead issue but momentum into conference tourneys are key (George Mason vs Ohio, UC Santa Barbara vs Utah State, Nevada vs Southern Illinois, Marist at Cleveland State, Wisconsin-Milwaukee at Bradley, Siena at Boise State, Rider at Cal State Northridge, Miami (Ohio) at Valparaiso)

Here’s a quick breakdown of the first four games

1) Davidson vs. Winthrop - This is a battle of a team that wants to be this year’s Winthrop, Davidson vs. the remnants of last year’s Winthrop.  It was during last year’s Friday night Brackebuster game at Missouri State that Winthrop first burst onto the scene with an impressive 77-66 win before going onto the NCAA tournament and dumping Notre Dame in the first round. Davidson also made the tournament last year losing to Maryland in the first round. 

This year Davidson was the hot mid major team to watch out for.  Ranked early in the season, the Wildcats proceeded to lose very close games to North Carolina, Duke, UCLA and NC State.  Because of their non conference schedule, the Wildcats started the year 4-6, but righted themselves with an 16-0 run, going undefeated in conference at 18-0.  Of course, the team revolves around star guard Stephen Curry and his nearly 26 points per game average.  However Curry has a fellow backcourt mate Jason Richards who averages 13 points per game and 8 assists per game. The Wildcats average a nearly staggering 80 points per game.

Coming off their best season ever, Winthrop struggled at the outset, going 5-5.  However in those first ten games, Winthrop played the likes of Baylor, Missouri State, Georgia Tech, West Virginia, Mississippi, and Akron After that .500 start, the Eagles have gone 13-4 (including a big win at then #19 ranked Miami Florida) and have won four games in a row in the Big South to move into first place at 9-3.  The Eagles still have several starters from that 2006-07 squad including leading scorer senior Michael Jenkins at 14 points per game, forward Taj McCullough at 12 points per game, and senior guard Chris Gaynor at 10 points per game.  The Eagles are much more of a defensive squad, limiting their opponents to 59 points per game.

Analysis - It’s a contrast of styles.  A high scoring Davidson team vs Winthrop’s half court style of offense and defense.  If the game is in the 70s or higher, that pace favors Davidson.  If the game is in the 60s or lower, that pace favors Winthrop.    Winthrop is better than people think and their only loss at home was to Missouri State.  Davidson does play well on the road at 9-3.  Davidson needs this game more because of their ever growing NCAA at large resume bid.  This will be a very close game, and though I won’t be surprised if Winthrop wins, I will say Davidson with Curry will overcome the road factor and wins at the end 73-69.

2) UCSB vs. Utah State  - A matchup of former Big West conference foes.  Utah State (18-9, 8-4 WAC) moved to the WAC three years ago and has continued the success they had previously in the Big West, including an  NCAA tournament selection in 2005-06 and a NIT bid last year.  This is UC Santa Barbara’s best season since 2001-02 when they upset Utah State in the finals in the Big West to make the NCAA tournament.   The Gauchos (20-6, 9-4 Big West) are lead by senior guard Alex Harris who averages 20 points per game.  The Aggies are led by senior guard Jaycee Carroll who averages 22 points per game and shoots over 50 percent from three.   The Gauchos big win on the season was a home win over UNLV.  The Aggies have a 20 point win over Oral Roberts. 

Analysis - Both teams are three point shooting wizards.  Utah State shoots 40 percent from three ,with the aforementioned Carroll shooting an unbelievable 90 of 174 from three.  However, UCSB shoots even better from three at 41 percent from the field.  Harris shoots 47 percent from the field (63 of 134) , and guard James Powell shoots 43 percent (55 of 128).   This does not bode well for a Utah State team that allows 37 percent shooting from three.   

Utah State has fallen on hard times recently, falling out of first place in the WAC by losing three games in the row all on the road.  The Aggies are 3-8 on the road for the season.  However this game is at home and the Aggies are a perfect 11-0.  However, the Aggies have played very few teams as good as UCSB at home.  The Gauchos are 8-2 on the road, which includes a win at second place Cal State Fullerton, so the Gauchos are accustomed to winning in hostile courts.  Since the Gauchos defend the three much better (30 percent three point field goal defense) than Utah State, look for the Gauchos to light up the scoreboard and put the first L on the season for the Aggies at home.  UCSB wins 82-77.

3) VCU at Akron - These are two teams who looked at the beginning of the season to be legitimate contenders for at large bids to the NCAA tournament.  VCU was coming off a magical season where they won the CAA tournament, then knocked off Duke in the first round of the NCAA tournament, then barely losing to Pittsburgh in the second round.  Akron was the best team in the MAC regular season going 13-3 and 26-7 overall before losing in the MAC championship game 53-52 on a last second miracle shot by Miami of Ohio’s Doug Penno (Cedrick Middleton’s missed free throw on a one and one attempt is further proof how missed free throws hurt). How they didn’t get a NIT bid is beyond me.   

This year VCU is at the top of the CAA with a 13-3 record and 20-6 overall.  Akron has not done as well as expected but still 9-4 in conference and 19-7 overall is still impressive.  For VCU, as it was last year, its their guards, Eric Maynor and Jamal Shuler who combine average 34 points per game.  For Akron, its their big man, Jeremiah Wood, who averages 13 points and nearly 8 rebounds a game.  He is aided by guard Nick Dials who average 12.   

Analysis - You have the number one scoring offense in the MAC, Akron vs. the number one scoring defense in the CAA, VCU, so something has to give.  For Akron, it comes down to handling the VCU press.  The Zips have the best turnover margin in the MAC at +3.65.   However, they are playing the number one team in the CAA in steals and also the number one team in the CAA in turnover margin as well at +2.23.   Akron does have the big man in Jeremiah Wood that could give VCU fits and as noted here before, VCU does not have good scoring options in the frontcourt, so advantage Akron.  Akron though is at the bottom of the MAC in field goal percentage defense at 45.4 percent.

What I think makes the difference is the strength of schedule, which I think comes into play in very close games.  VCU has beaten Houston, Maryland, Bradley and Richmond  and lost close games to Arkansas and Miami Florida.  Akron’s schedule was much weaker with their only non conference win to speak of being a home win to Temple, though they lost close games at Dayton and at Winthrop.  That experience of close games plus the guard play of Maynor and Shuler will make the difference - VCU wins 67-64.

4) George Mason vs. Ohio - The second of two CAA/MAC matchups and a game just as good as the first.  George Mason (19-8, 11-5 CAA) has been an enigma all year.  The Patriots winning six of their first seven games including wins over Kansas State, Dayton and South Carolina.  Then the Patriots went 4-4 in their next eight including East Carolina’s first win of the season, then later a pasting by Ohio’s conference brethren Kent State, then finally clunkers in conference to last place Georgia State and Delaware.  Then the Patriots regained their footing and won eight of their next nine, so much so that they were back in the mix for an NCAA at large berth.  Then came a bad loss at ODU followed two games later by a loss on national TV at home to UNCW on a last second shot by TJ Carter, which was mostly likely the final dagger to their at large hopes.

Ohio (17-9, 8-5 MAC) has had a similar road this year.  They struggled at the onset losing close games to Holy Cross and Temple in their first four games.  They rebounded to win six of their next seven with wins over Maryland and St John’s before a tough loss at St Mary’s (they also were clocked by Kansas).   Then the MAC league play started and the Bobcats won six of their first eight and were talked about as a possible at large bid team.   Then the Bobcats lost three of their next four games, all the losses on the road before winning their last game over Bowling Green.

Analysis - George Mason plays best when they work it inside to senior forward Will Thomas (16.5 points 10.6 rebounds) who either scores with his solid post moves or kicks the ball out to open shooters Folarin Campbell (15.3 points) , John Vaughan (13.5 points) and the very inconsistent Dre Smith (9.6).  For Akron, its all about their big men Leon Williams (15.6 points and 9.9 rebounds) and Jerome Tillman (12.8 points and 7.2 rebounds) but guard Bubba Walther (11.3 points) is a solid contributor. 

Akron is third in scoring defense in the MAC which will come in handy against the high scoring Patriots who are third in the CAA in scoring offense.   There are two differences that favor the Bobcats in this game.  First, Williams and Tillman combined should give Thomas all he can handle in the post.  Second, Ohio is undefeated at home at 10-0 while Mason has struggled on the road with a 5-5 record.  Combine those two facts and you have Ohio winning at home 65-59.   

Bracket Buster Predictions Part IV

This is the never ending saga of the Bracket Buster Previews.  I have done three so far, covering eight games.  Still another four to write about.  Geez. 

ESPN360
8:00 PM
Cal State Fullerton vs Wright State

The second place Big West Titans (18-6, 8-4 Big West) take on perhaps the most surprising mid major this year, the Wright State Raiders (20-8,12-2 Horizon) who have won 10 of their last 11 games, including an impressive 68-55 win over #12 Butler.  The Titans are coming off a home loss to first place Long Beach State.

The Titans sport an unseemly RPI of 139 and a SOS, of get this, 321.  Their only non conference game against a signature opponent was a 24 point blowout at UCLA.  The Titans who average 78 points and 47 percent from the field per game are led by guard Bobby Brown who leads five scorers in double figures at 20 points per game (Scott Cutley -16.4, Frank Robinson 12.4, Marcus Crenshaw 11.3 and Justin Burns 11.0 are the four other double digit scorers).  The Titans score a lot, but give up a lot, 75 points per game which is next to last in the Big West.  The Titans are an excellent rebounding team, averaging 39 rebounds a game which leads the Big West.

Wright State is led by senior guard DaShaun Wood who averages 19.6 points per game.  He is the only Raider who scores in double figures but the other scorers average between 7.7 and 9.4 points per game as nine players average 12.4 minutes or more per game.  Wright State is second in field goal percentage in the Horizon at 44.4 percent per game.  More importantly, the Raiders are second in the Horizon in field goal percentage defense at 41.5 percent and second in three point field goal percentage defense at 32.7 percent.

Prediction – Coach Brad Brownell’s teams at UNC Wilmington were always fundamentally sound, defense oriented, ball movement oriented teams.  Now he has brought his philosophy to Wright State with terrific results.  His methodical style of offense and defense should frustrate Cal State Fullerton and keep the Titans high octane offense in the sixties.  The only concern will be keeping the Titans off the boards.  But the Raiders should prevail 67-61.

8:00 PM
ESPN2
Bradley vs VCU

In the first Missouri Valley vs Colonial Bracket Buster showdown, the Braves (18-10,9-7 MVC RPI 41) travels to Richmond to take on the CAA leading Rams (22-5,14-2 CAA RPI 45) in the always loud Alltel center. 

The Braves are led by their three guard offense of Will Franklin, Jeremy Crouch and Daniel Ruffin, who combine for 43 points and 11 assists per game.  Throw in center Zach Andrews (11.5 points per game) and its no wonder that the Braves lead the MVC in scoring at 76 points per game and in three point field goal percentage at 42.9 percent a game from the three point arc.  However, the Braves are second to last in the usually defensive oriented MVC at 71 points per game allowed and second to last in field goal percentage defense at 46 percent.  The most telling stat may be that Bradley is both last in rebounding offense and rebounding defense as the Braves are outrebounded an average of 7 rebounds a game. Bradley is also a disappointing 1-7 vs. Top 50 RPI teams (sole win vs Depaul, losses to Illinois, Michigan State, Missouri State twice, Creighton twice and Southern Illinois), which NCAA committee members will look at when judging a potential at large team

VCU is led by their three guard oriented offense of Eric Maynor, B.A Walker and Jesse Pellot Rosa who combine for nearly 43 points (42.9) and 9.7 assists per game.  The Rams are second in the CAA in field goal percentage (45.5) and first in three point field goal percentage (39.9).  The Rams love to press on defense as noted by their their ranking of third in the CAA in steals and first in the CAA in turnover margin (+5.33, ODU is a distant second with +2.07).  The Rams have played only one other Top 50 RPI team (loss to Xavier).  The Rams are 4-4 vs Top 100 RPI teams (losses to Xavier, Applachian State, Hofstra and ODU, wins vs ODU, Drexel, Albany and Houston).

Prediction – This will be a shootout with two guard oriented teams pushing the ball up and down the court.  The questions will be whether Bradley will be able to handle the Rams full court press and will VCU take advantage of Bradley’s weak rebounding.  The Rams are the better defensive team and will win out at home 81-74.

10:00 PM
ESPN2
Drexel vs. Creighton

Another CAA vs MVC matchup as the Dragons (19-7, 11-5 CAA RPI 53) take on the Blue Jays (18-8, 12-4 MVC RPI 22) in what promises to be a very loud Qwest Center in Omaha. 

The Dragons are coming off a very disappointing road loss to William and Mary, which despite road wins over Villanova and Syracuse, have put them behind ODU in the CAA’s chase for an at large bid (grant you ODU has their own bad loss to JMU, which most people would say is worse but its often about late season losses and ODU’s was earlier in the season).  Drexel has also struggled against the top CAA competition going 1-4 vs Hofstra, VCU and ODU, another factor against an at large bid.   Meanwhile Creighton is coming off a solid 11 point win over Northern Iowa and has a 5-2 record vs top 50 RPI teams (wins over Xavier, Bradley twice and Missouri State twice).

The Dragons are a veteran oriented team led by their center Frank Elegar who averages 15.6 and 7 rebounds a game.  Senior Chaz Crawford leads the CAA with 9.4 rebounds and 3.4 blocks per game. Seniors Bashir Mason and Dominick Mejia average 11.9 and 11. 2 points respectively.  The Dragons are second in scoring defense allowing only 60.9 points per game and lead the CAA in field goal percentage defense allowing only 39.6 percent from the field.  The Dragons often struggle from the field as shown in their recent game vs William and Mary shooting 33 percent from the field (Mason and Mejia combined to shoot 5 for 17 from the field).

The Bluejays are led by their outside/inside combination of guard Nate Funk (17.3 points per game) and center Anthony Tolliver (13.5 points per game).  Forward Dane Watts (10.2 points per game) and guard Nate Porter (10 points per game) round out the double digit scorers for Creighton.  The Bluejays are second in the MVC in scoring defense at 61.3 points per game, and fourth in field goal percentage defense at 42 percent.  The Blue Jays also lead the MVC in free throw percentage at 75 percent a game

Prediction – The key matchup looks to be a big man battle with Drexel’s Elegar and Crawford taking on Creighton’s Tolliver and Watts.  I think Drexel will assign Bashir Mason, one of the CAA’s best defenders, to guard Bluejay star Nate Funk.  Funk may have a very hard time scoring if that’s the case.  The question will be can Drexel get quality shots off on Creighton.  The game will be very close and the Blue Jays’ superior free throw shooting will come into play.  Creighton 69 Drexel 66.

12:00 midnight
ESPN2
Ohio (16-9, 7-5 MAC) vs New Mexico State (19-6, 9-3 WAC RPI 81)

Quick Prediction – This should be a high scoring game with Ohio averaging 74 points per game with five double digit scorers and New Mexico State averaging 79 points per game.  Both teams also give up points.  Ohio is next to last in the MAC in scoring defense, giving up 71 points per game, while New Mexico State is next to last in the WAC giving up 73 points per game.

The difference most likely will be in turnovers as New Mexico State is first in the WAC in steals and turnover margin, while Ohio is middle of the road in the MAC in turnover margin.  My guess is that the Aggies will force a lot of turnovers on Ohio and that will be the difference in

Bracket Buster Predictions Part III

Well, I couldn't recover my typepad draft, so another lesson to work in Word and copy and paste.

Lets continue with the Bracket Buster Predictions.

4:00 PM
ESPN2
#15 Southern Illinois vs. #12 Butler

This is as far as I know that the first time that a Bracket Buster game has featured TWO nationally ranked mid major teams.    So this game is definitely the jewel of this weekend’s bracket buster games featuring two standout defensive teams in the Salukis (22-5, 13-3 MVC) and the Bulldogs (24-3, 11-2 Horizon).

Southern Illinois has won eight in a row and ten of its last eleven games.  The MVC leading Salukis feature the number one ranked scoring defense allowing a meager 55 points per game in the Missouri Valley and are second in the league in field goal percentage allowed at 41.5 percent.  The Salukis’ signature win was a 69-64 victory over now #25 Virginia Tech.  The Salukis have also lost to Indiana and Arkansas.  However, the Salukis play in the tough MVC and have a RPI ranking of 9, a SOS of 32 ,a record of 6-3 vs top 50 RPI teams and an 11-4 overall vs Top 100 RPI teams.

The Salukis are led scoring wise by the trifecta of Jamal Tatum, Randal Falker and Matt Shaw, who combine for 38 points and 16 rebounds a game.  Though Southern Illinois has nine players that average 10 minutes or more a game, that trifecta accounts for more than 60 percent of their scoring as Southern Illinois is last in the MVC in scoring at 62.9 points per game.  Also despite being fourth in field goal percentage at a respectable 45.3, the Salukis struggle to get shots off as they are last in the MVC in field goal attempts. However, thanks to their defense, their scoring margin is second in the MVC at 7.2.

Butler is actually second in the Horizon League after their loss to Wright State on Saturday.  However, their overall season and non conference wins are impressive.  As many know, the Bulldogs stormed through the Preseason NIT with wins at Notre Dame and Indiana, then impressive wins over Tennessee and Gonzaga in the NIT semis and finals at MSG.  Butler also owns a solid win over Purdue.  The Bulldogs are led by their guard oriented offense of juniors AJ Graves and Mark Green and guard/forward Brandon Crone who combine for 42 points a game.  The Bulldogs are second in the Horizon in scoring, averaging 69 points per game and are first in the Horizon in free throw percentage shooting 75.8 percent from the foul line.

But its Butler’s defense that makes the Bulldogs standout.  The Bulldogs are first in the Horizon in Field Goal Defense Percentage allowing only 39.8 percent from the field.  Even better, the Bulldogs are first in three point field goal percentage defense, allowing only 32.4 percent from the three point arc.  Butler is also excellent in turnover margin, first in the Horizon with +4.07 (the next best in the Horizon is only at 1.46).   The best example of a Butler game is their 60-55 win at Indiana in the preseason NIT.  The Bulldogs held the Hoosiers to 40 percent from the field and 3 of 14 from the three point line.  The Hoosiers had 19 turnovers to the Bulldogs 11.  Finally, Butler shot 21 of 26 from the line.  Classic Bulldogs game.

Prediction – I would be shocked if the game did not end up in the fifties or low sixties at best.  Though Southern Illinois’ three point defense stacks up well with Butler’s guard oriented offense, Butler moves the ball so well and their defense will make the Saluki’s offense struggle even more than it usually does.  Finally, Butler will win the game at the free throw line.  Bulldogs win a close game 59-55.


ESPN2
6:00 PM
Northern Iowa vs. #10 Nevada

One of the great mid major mysteries/disappointments, the Northern Iowa Panthers (16-11, 7-9 MVC) vs #10 Nevada (22-2,10-1 WAC), who many would say is not really a mid major. The Panthers started the season 13-2 and when the Bracket Busters pairings were announced, the Panthers were had lost 4 of their last 6 but were still 15-6 and ranked very high in the RPI.  Since then, the Panthers have lost 5 of their last 6 and now have a RPI of 90. Nevada, though having won 15 of their last 16 games, has not played top competition with a SOS of 152, and have played only one game vs. a Top 50 RPI team (and lost).

Northern Iowa is led by their big men, Grant Stout and Eric Coleman who combine for 25 points and 18 rebounds a game.  Northern Iowa struggles to score points as they only average about 66 points a game, which is eighth in the MVC.   They are third in scoring defense at 62 points a game, but their margin of victory is only sixth in the MVC, which ironically is their position in the MVC.   They also struggle on three point defense, having allowed teams to shoot 36 percent from the three point arc, which is eighth in the MVC.  A possible reason for teams shooting threes against the Panthers is that the Panthers lead the MVC in blocks per game with 3.3. 

Nevada is the second leading scoring team in the WAC at 77 points per game and leads the WAC in field goal percentage at nearly 49 percent a game. Everyone knows about All American candidate Nick Fazekas and his 20 points and 11 rebounds a game.  But the Wolfpack have two other dangerous scorers in Marcellus Kemp (17.9 per game) and Ramon Sessions (13.1 per game).  Kyle Shiloh just misses being the fourth Wolfpack double digit scorer at 9.4 points per game.  Nevada leads in the WAC also in three point field goal percentage at nearly 41 percent a game. 

Prediction – The matchup between Coleman and Stout vs. Fazekas should be very entertaining on the boards but the Wolfpack’s accuracy shooting the three does not bode well for the Panthers and their propensity to allow the three.  Had this game been earlier in the season, the Panthers would have a much better chance, but the Panthers seemingly have lost their way and this looks to be a blowout.  Nevada wins going away 82-66.

6:00 PM
ESPN 360
Old Dominion vs. Toledo

The streaking Monarchs (20-6, 13-3 CAA) take on the MAC leading Rockets (14-10, 10-2 MAC).   This looks to be a mismatch with ODU’s rising 51 RPI vs. Toledo’s 93 RPI but Toledo has played stiff competition and has faced CAA opponents already this year. 

ODU has won eight in row, the last two being impressive wins over CAA leading VCU and Hofstra, which allowed ODU to take over sole possession of second place in the CAA.  They have a signature road win over #16 Georgetown, an impressive 13 point victory.   They have swept Drexel twice and lost tough games to Clemson, Winthrop and MAAC leading Marist (they also lost to #25 Virginia Tech)

The Monarchs are led by three seniors; Valdus Vasylius, Arnaud Dahi and Drew Williamson, who combine for 37 points and 16 rebounds a game.  The Monarchs are a deep team that often plays eight-nine players a game.  ODU leads the CAA in rebounding margin, assists, and is second in steals.  They are a tough physical team that likes to wear down opponents inside (see the recent win over Hofstra as proof).

Toledo struggled at the start of the year, going 4-8, but it was against tough competition such as losses at Missouri State, at Iowa, at Drexel, at Vanderbilt, at Kansas and they had a tournament win over VCU (the Rockets must feel like an honorary member of the CAA, this is their third CAA opponent this year).   The Rockets righted themselves winning seven in a row.

The Rockets are led by the trio of Keonta Howell, Justin Ingram and my favorite name in the Bracket Buster games, Florentino Valencia, who combine for 43 points a game.   Toledo averages 45 percent from the field, but unfortunately the Rockets are dead last in the MAC in field goal percentage defense allowing opponents to shoot 47.5 percent from the field.   They are also dead last in rebounding margin, last in rebounding offense and next to last in rebounding defense.  What keeps the Rockets in games is that they are first in steals and third in turnover margin. 

Prediction – The matchup does not bode well for Toledo.  Old Dominion is an excellent rebounding team and Toledo quite possibly one of the worst.  ODU should be able to rebound and score at will against a week inside Toledo team.  Throw in ODU playing their best basketball of the season and it will be ODU winning handily 74-60.

7:00 PM
Utah State vs Oral Roberts
ESPNU

The Utah State Aggies (19-7, 8-4 WAC) travel to Oral Roberts (18-8, 10-1 Mid Con) to take on the Mid Continent Conference leading Golden Eagles.   The Aggies have no signature wins to speak of sans a win over WAC second place New Mexico State, yet have a RPI of 64 (despite a SOS of 152).  The Golden Eagles have a signature road win over #8 Kansas 78-71 and have a RPI of 96 with a SOS of 188.

The Aggies are led by junior guard Jaycee Carroll who averages 20 points per game, shoots 54 percent from the field, and shoots 90 percent from the foul line.  No surprise that Utah State leads the WAC in free throw percentage at a whopping 77 percent.  Utah State is last in the WAC in rebounding offense but first in rebounding defense.  Their defense is a little suspect as they allow their opponents to shoot 45 percent from the field.

The Golden Eagles are led by big man Caleb Green who averages 19.9 points per game and 9.7 rebounds a game.  He has been remarkably consistent in his averages in points and rebounds in his four years at Oral Roberts.  He is joined by fellow senior Ken Tutt who averages 15.7 points per game (he averaged 20 when he was a freshman).  The Golden Eagles average 71 points per game, which leads the Mid Con and they also lead the Mid con in scoring defense at 64 points per game. Their most impressive stat is that they lead the Mid Con in three point field goal percentage defense only allowing 30 percent from the three point arc.

Prediction – These are two equally matched teams with Oral Roberts having the slight edge in defense. Utah State’s free throw shooting will keep it close but the Golden Eagles being at home will give them the edge 72-68.

I will have the rest of my predictions tonite or early tomorrow morning.

Bracket Buster Predictions Part II

Lets continue with the second part of my Bracket Buster preview

Saturday February 17
1:00 PM ESPNU
Applachian State vs. Wichita State

The Mountaineers (19-6, 11-3 Southern) travel to Wichita State (17-9,8-7 MVC) to face a Shockers team that has stumbled from their 9-0 Top 10 start to go 8-9 over the last 17 games.  The troubles started for Wichita State when they lost close games to both New Mexico and USC in the Las Vegas Classic.  Before Wichita State could right themselves they went right into Missouri Valley action and proceeded to lose  another four out of five.  None of the teams they lost to were patsies - Southern Illinois, Northern Iowa, Missouri State and on the road to Indiana State (the only non Horizon conference team to beat Butler).  Wichita State has won five out of its last six to move into fourth in the Missouri Valley - its only loss a home loss to conference leader Southern Illinois.  However Wichita State's RPI has dropped to 72 due to its midseason struggles. 

Applachian State has had basically the reverse kind of season from Wichita State.  The Mountaineers struggled early getting blown out by Clemson, Virginia Tech and Wake Forest (only the Demon Deacons loss would be considered bad) and were only 5-3 after eight games.   Applachian State though found itself in a four game stretch, starting with their impressive run in the San Juan Shootout.  First they knocked off Virginia (a likely NCAA tournament bound team at 17-7, 8-3 in ACC), then knocked off UCF (second in Conference USA), then beating SEC Vanderbilt (49 in RPI) in the championship game.  Then for icing on the cake, the Mountaineers went to Richmond and knocked off CAA leader VCU on its home court.   This has left the Mountaineers with an impressive 3-0 record vs top 50 RPI teams and a respectable RPI of 60.

Wichita State is led by the trifecta of Kyle Wilson, PJ Couisnard and Sean Ogirri, who combine for nearly 37 points, 14 rebounds and 7 assists a game.  The Shockers are a veteran team starting three seniors and two juniors, plus they are deep with nine players averaging 14 minutes or more a game. Wichita State is third or fourth in most Valley categories, which would explain their fourth place status in the conference.  Their average margin of victory is 6.6 points a game, however they struggle on defense, only sixth in the conference on field goal percentage defense, giving up 43 percent from the field.  The Shockers do not lead the MVC in any category and are 9-2 at home (only two losses to Northern Iowa and Southern Illinois).

Applachian State is a high scoring team that averages 76 points per game and shoots 48 percent from the field, which leads the Southern conference.  DJ Thompson is their leading scorer at 15 points per game, however its their second leading scorers, Donte Minter and Jeremy Clayton that are the more interesting.  Minter is the Mountaineers sixth man, a 6-8 250 pound offensive force, who only averages 19 minutes a game, yet scores 12.3 points a game on sixty five percent shooting from the field.  Yes 65 percent FG percentage.  Their other big man, 6-7 Jeremy Clayton shoots 60 percent from the field.  They distribute the ball well, with the Mountaineers second in conference in assists and they are also second in steals.  The Mountaineers play 8 players for the most part, the least of which averages 12 minutes a game.

Prediction - This should be a high scoring game with neither team a very good FG percentage defensive team.  Though this is a desperate time for the Shockers, needing a good home win to impress the committee, Wichita State has been beatable at home.  Combine that with Applachian State's impressive road and neutral schedule wins gives the edge to the Mountaineers.  I also like the one two punch of Clayton and Minter to wear down Wichita State inside.  I like Applachian State in this, winning 79-73.  If Applachian State wins this game, the tournament selection committee will have to seriously look at the Mountaineers as an at large team.

Saturday February 17
3:00 PM ESPNU
Hofstra vs. Holy Cross

Talk about equally matched teams.  The Pride are 19-8, 12-4 in the CAA with a RPI of 70.  Holy Cross is 19-7 and 10-1 in the Patriot with a RPI of 69 and SOS's are pretty close.  They have also had four common opponents - William and Mary, George Mason, Siena, and Syracuse.  Holy Cross defeated William and Mary and Siena, and lost to Syracuse and George Mason.  Hofstra defeated the Tribe, the Patriots and the Greyhounds but also lost to the Orangemen.  The Patriots and the Pride each only play eight players.  The difference might be that Holy Cross is 1-5 against top 100 RPI teams while Hofstra is 4-4.   There are also differences in style of play.

The Crusaders are a deliberate, low post/frontcourt defensive based team with 6-5 leading scorer small forward/guard Keith Simmons, who averages 17.8 points and nearly six rebounds a game, and third leading scorer Tim Clifford, a load at 6-10 270, who averages 10 points a game.   The Patriots only average 63 points per game, but lead the Patriot League in scoring defense, holding opponents to 58 points per game.  The Crusaders also lead the Patriot League in blocked shots, averagng 3.5 a game led by Tim Clifford's nearly 2 blocks a game.

Hofstra, as noted here many times, is a guard oriented offense led by the trifecta of Loren Stokes, Antoine Agudio, and Carlos Rivera, the highest scoring guard trio in the country and the only team with two starters averaging 20 points a game (Stokes and Agudio).  They are the second highest scoring team in the CAA, averaging 73.2 points per game and are second in three point field goal percentage.  However, the Pride give up 69.6 points per game, which explains why Hofstra plays so many close games.   As brilliant as their backcourt has been, their frontcourt has been, to be kind, sporadic all year.  Chris Gadley has at times played up to his potential, at other times, frustrating to watch with his propensity for cheap fouls.  Mike Davis Saab and Arminas Urbutis have also been inconsistent.

Prediction - This game doesn't mean much as far as an at large bid.  Holy Cross' weak schedule and bad losses by the Pride to Manhattan, Charlotte and Delaware mean both teams have to win their conferences to make the dance.  This should be a relatively close game considering the contrasting styles.  Holy Cross will play a deliberate game, trying to keep the score in the sixties.  They will accomplish this, but Hofstra is quite good at close games over the past two years, and there is nothing better than three experienced guards.  Combine that with their ability to win close games and their tougher schedule and Hofstra will win a hard fought game 68-60.

I had done work on four other games but for some reason Typepad didn't save the final draft.  I am going to see if I can recover the material, but if not, I will repost them tonight.

Bracket Buster Preview Part I

This is the first of several Bracket Buster game previews.  I want to thank David Mihm the editor of the great site Bracketography.com for giving me a little encouragement for my bracket buster preview.  I am going to do the previews in chronological order as far as the TV coverage.

Game 1 - Friday Night, February 16 7pm ESPN2
Winthrop (21-4, 11-0 Big South) vs. Missouri State (19-8, 10-6 MVC)

This might not be the best time for the Eagles to take on the Bears.  The Bears are coming off a tough home loss to Southern Illinois. 

Winthrop has played several top ranked teams very closely this year, losing to North Carolina at Chapel Hill by 7, lost at Wisconsin by 3 and lost at Maryland by 11.  They also lost to Texas A&M by 20.  They do have a signature road win over ODU.  However with a RPI of 77, Winthrop would need a big win over Missouri State to enhance their at large chances, but their best bet is to win the Big South tournament.

The Eagles are led by their two guards Michael Jenkins and Torrell Martin, who combine for 30 points a game, while center Craig Bradshaw averages another 12 points a game.  But the Eagles are very balanced.  Nine players average 13 or more minutes a game for Winthrop and the team field goal percentage averages a solid 47.7 percen, which leads the Big South. Winthrop also leads the Big South in scoring defense, limiting their opponents to 60 points a game.

Missouri State has a RPI of 32, similar to last year when they were hosed out of an at large bid to the NCAA tournament (Missouri State and Hofstra should have gone, Air Force and Utah State should have stayed home).  However, it will be difficult to keep the Bears out of the tournament this year should Missouri State stay on pace for a 20 win season.  The Bears have a signature win over #3 Wisconsin in the South Padre Invitational 66-64.  They also have a win over West Coast Conference leader Santa Clara and a tough loss to Oklahoma State.  Plus they play in the Valley, one of the best conferences in the country and certainly no longer a secret with the success of the Bears, Southern Illinois, Bradley, Wichita State, Northern Iowa and Creighton the past few years.

The Bears are led by Blake Ahearn and Tyler Chaney, their only two double digit scorers.  However, the Bears are very much like the Eagles in that eight players average 17 or more minutes a game. Despite only two players that average in double figures, the Bears average 75 points per game and shoot 48 percent from the field which leads the Missouri Valley. The Bears are also third in the Valley in Field Goal Defense Percentage at 41.9.

Prediction - This will be a close game.  Two good balanced teams who have played their share of the big boys this year.  Both teams played Wisconsin closely this year.  I will take the team that beat Wisconsin, Missouri State at home 72-67.

Game #2  Friday Night, February 16 9PM ESPNU
Albany vs. Boise State

The Great Danes (18-8 overall, 11-3 America East) are coming off a tough home loss to now first place Vermont in the America East.  Boise State (14-10, 7-5 WAC( is holding their own in the WAC having won its last two games in conference, albeit over conference patsies San Jose State and Idaho.  Neither team has a shot for an at large, with Albany's RPI 98 and Boise's 117.  Albany's biggest non conference win might have been a 6 point win over Bucknell, one of last year's mid major darlings. Other than that, they have been pounded by UConn and VCU.  Boise State has one good home win over BYU and tough road losses at Washington State and Nevada, but not much else to write home about.

Albany is led by their star player Jamar Wilson, who scored his 2000th point on Sunday vs. Vermont. Wilson averages 18.8 points per game.  Albany plays a lot of close games as they average 68 points a game in conference but give up 66 points a game defensively.  They are a solid shooting team, leading the America East in free throw percentage (72.5) and field goal percentage (45.6).

Boise State is led by their trifecta of Coby Karl, Matt Nelson and Reggie Larry who combine for  43 points per game.  The Broncos are a deep team with nine players averaging 13 or more minutes a game.  The Broncos average 74 points per game and shoot 46 percent from the field. Boise is third in field goal percentage defense and first in rebounding average in the WAC.

Prediction - The Broncos have played better against tougher competition, plus the home factor bodes well for the Broncos.  Look for a relatively high scoring game with Boise winning 78-71.

Part 2 of the Bracket Buster Preview will be tomorrow evening.

Remaining Bracket Buster Predictions

Marist (16-8 overall, 10-6 MAAC, 108 RPI) vs. Old Dominion (18-8 overall, 11-5 CAA, 51 RPI)

Marist has nice, balanced scoring with four players in double figures led by Jared Jordan's 16.3 points per game and Wil Whittington's 15 per game.  Marist has played a decent non conference schedule, losing to Seton Hall and Ohio, defeated St John's at MSG, and in conference winning at Iona and at home to Manhattan.

Old Dominion, the defending CAA champs are led by 2004-05 CAA player of the year Alex Loughton, who averages 13.8 points per game and Isaiah Hunter who averages 13.9 points per game.  The Monarchs in non conference games have defeated Georgia, Fordham and Virginia Tech, while barely losing to Wisconsin and were crushed by UAB.

Prediction - Outside of Seton Hall, RPI wise this is the best team Marist has faced all year and Old Dominion has only lost two games at home the last two years (both games to Hofstra).   Marist will keep it close, but at the end, the depth of the Monarchs will be too much.  Old Dominion 68 Marist 60.

Buffalo (15-9 overall, 6-8 MAC, 128 RPI) vs. Iona (19-5 overall, 13-3 MAAC, 69 RPI).  Buffalo is led by Calvin Cage, who averages 18 points per game.  The Bulls are 9-1 non conference, with their signature wins being victories at home over Fresno State (RPI 142) and Rutgers (RPI 77) (also lost to Boston College RPI 33).  Iona is led by Steve Burtt, who averages 24.6 points per game and Ricky Soliver who averages 16.5 points per game.  Iona is 6-2 non conference, with their signature win at Iowa State (RPI 61), a win at Fresno State, plus a close loss at Kentucky (lost by six) and lost to Seton Hall.  They have struggled at home, losing all of their three conference games at home to Manhattan, Marist, and St Peter's.

Prediction - I don't like making negative commentaries in my predictions, but I think this is warranted.  Especially after their 10-1 start, I thought Buffalo would be the elite team in the MAC and a dangerous team in the NCAA tournament.  Buffalo has struggled in conference and it seems on the defensive end as well.   They have been one of the five biggest disappointments I think in college basketball this year (Stanford, Louisville, Kentucky, and Maryland the others).  Iona has no qualms about playing a high scoring game and I like the Gaels to run to a 89-79 win over the Bulls.

Louisiana Tech (16-10 overall, 9-4 WAC, 81 RPI) vs Southern Illinois (18-8 overall, 11-5 MVC, 24 RPI).  The Bulldogs are led by Paul Millsap, who averages 19.7 points per game.  He is the only player on the Bulldogs who averages in double figures.  The Bulldogs have six other players who average between 5.6 and 8 points a game.  Louisiana Tech is 7-6 non conference and has struggled on the road losing to Alabama (43 RPI) but also losing to the likes of Nebraska (102 RPI), Yale (188 RPI), and Southern U. (162 RPI).   The Salukis are 7-3 non conference having defeated the likes of Kent State (97 RPI) and Murray State (84 RPI).  Southern Illinois is led by juniors Jamaal Tatum and Tony Young who have combined for 27 points per game.

Prediction - The Salukis may struggle on offense, but they play terrific defense.  Combine that with a Louisiana Tech team that has one player who averages in double figures and who averages 11 points more than the next leading scorer, plus the Bulldogs struggle on the road, plus the Salukis are undefeated at home and you get a Salukis win.  Low scoring game - Southern Ilinois 65, Louisiana Tech 52.

Samford (17-8 overall, 13-5 Ohio Valley, 79 RPI) vs. Ohio (13-8 overall, 8-6 MAC 110 RPI). 

Samford is 4-3 in non conference games, defeating no one of consequence RPI wise and losing to Texas and Oklahoma by wide margins.  Samford also split their season series with Murray State (84 RPI).  Ohio is 5-2 in non conference games with wins over Marist (108 RPI), Rhode Island (129 RPI) and losses to Cincinnati and Kentucky (

Prediction - Ohio has played a stronger non conference schedule plus has the home advantage.  Ohio wins one for the MAC 73-65. 

Other Bracket Buster Predictions -

Fresno State (13-10 overall, 6-6 WAC RPI 142) vs Creighton (17-7 overall, 11-5 MVC, 29 RPI) - Fresno State will come out strong early with nothing to lose and this game being their championship game (Fresno is on probation, but the Bulldogs have only two road wins all year.  Combine that with a Creighton Blue Jays team that has played a good non conference schedule and Creighton wins going away 83-69.   Watch Creighton's leading scorer Nate Funk and 3 point bomber Johnny Matthies and Fresno State's dual scoring threat of Qunton Hosley and JaVance Coleman in this game.

Northern Arizona (18-7 overall, 11-1 Big Sky, 146 RPI) vs. Western Kentucky  (19-5 overall, 11-1 Sun Belt, 48 RPI).     Balanced Northern Arizona is led by four players, who average between 11 and 14 points a game; Kelley Golob, Ruben Boykin, Tyrone Gazy and Steve Sir. Northern Arizona is 6-6 non conference having lost to Arizona, Air Force and Arizona State with no big wins of consequence non conference wise.   Western Kentucky is 8-4 vs non conference teams with wins over Austin Peay, UAB (RPI 50), and Virginia (RPI 53) and barely losing to Georgia (82 RPI) by 4 points, at Arizona (20 RPI) by 5 points and at Bradley (63 RPI) by 2 points.   Western Kentucky is led by their dual threat of Anthony Winchester and Courtney Lee who combine for 36 points a game.   I like Western Kentucky  to win by double digits, 82-69.

Northwestern State (18-6 overall, 11-1 Southland,  71 RPI)vs Utah State (16-6 overall, 7-4 WAC, 56 RPI).  This might be the best sleeper game of the Bracket Buster Saturday. Northwestern State has won at Mississippi State (RPI 113), at Oklahoma State (RPI 96) and at Oregon State and barely lost at Wichita State by 2.   Northwestern State is led by leading scorer and rebounder Clifton Lee. Utah State is led by Nate Harris and Jaycee Carroll who each score 17 points a game.  Harris is also their leading rebounder at 7 rebounds a game.    Utah State is 9-2 non conference with a win over BYU (RPI 60).   I like Utah State to sneak by winning 74-70.

Butler - Kent State Bracket Buster Prediction

Last Bracket Buster Prediction for the Night.

Butler (86 RPI) 10-4 Horizon, 17-9 overall.  Kent State (97 RPI) 12-2 MAC, 18-7 overall. 

Butler is 7-5 vs. non conference opponents.  Lost to UNC Wilmington (45 RPI), #17 Ohio State (8 RPI) and Michigan (30 RPI), beat Bradley (RPI 63) and split with UW Milwaukee (RPI 41).  Butler is first in the Horizon in scoring defense at 59.9 per game and first in 3 point FG percentage defense at 30.2%.  Tied with UW Milwaukee in scoring margin at +8.3.  First in the Horizon in FG percentage at 46.3%. Butler does struggle on the boards, getting outrebounded on average by 7 rebounds a game.  Butler is led by Brandon Polk who averages 17.7 points per game.  AJ Graves chips in with 13.5 points per game and Bruce Horan averages 11 points per game and 94 percent from the free throw line.

Kent State 6-5 vs. non conference opponents.  Lost to Rutgers, Southern Illinois and Syracuse.  Quality wins, one  vs Akron (68 RPI).   Kent State second in scoring offense in the MAC at 71.9 points per game and second in scoring margin behind Akron.  Kent State is in the middle of the conference in most statistical categories except first in three point field goal defense percentage at 32.2%.    Kent State is led by Jay Youngblood (14.4 points per game), DeAndre Haynes (12.5 points per game) and Kevin Warzynski (10.2 points per game), all seniors. 

Prediction - I love a team that plays good defense and and shoots the ball well despite not being a high scoring team.  Butler does both.  Couple that with the fact that Kent State has only one win vs a team with a RPI under 100, Akron, who was smoked by Nevada by 27 tonight, that does not bode well for Kent State.   As long as Butler doesn't allow too many second chances with Kent State's rebounding advantage, they should be fine.  Even though Kent State is at home, I like Butler to win in a relatively low scoring game 64-59. 

Tomorrow, I will give short predictions of the other seven bracket buster games.